Why all the hype ???

[FrankD.]

Come on guy\'s,

No doubt Esky will have the most impressive sheet entering the derby and he and LAL are the class of their generation.

But 6/5 or 8/5 in a 20 horse field and handing him the derby and the triple crown is totally ridiculous.

He\'ll be 5/2 or 3/1 for the derby and he\'ll have to a stalk a 1:10 pace and run his eyeballs out in the last 3/8. Depending on where he draws, who guns to the lead and how he reacts to consecutive tops off 28 days rest are way too many variables at far too short a price to step to the windows. He may very well run away and win by open lengths and turn out to be a good one or more ? If this happens the so called greatest trainer in the land will have his 2nd triple crown victory and he\'ll still have more drug suspensions than TC victories.

Most of us here bet serious money daily throughout the year. We are all hard core racing fans and we do get caught up in the hype of the derby and BC. Let\'s face it though a 20 horse field of 3 year olds going 1 1/4 for the first time is a total crap shoot. If I roll the bones I want to get paid.

Derby week is my favorite betting week of the year, it used to be more so before pools were co-mingled ! Many outfits bought one in to put over to pay their derby expenses and were ignored by the Kentucky hard boots if they weren\'t local or Kentucky bred ? It made for some nice scores on out of town horses. The Thursday, Friday and derby day cards are always loaded with good races, big pools and casual fans, now that\'s a trifecta !!!

[jimbo66]

Frank,

Hard to guess at post-time odds for the Derby, but I would agree that somewhere around 5-2 will be the number he lands at.  Certainly no chance of it being 6-5.  I would call the range 2-1 to 3-1.

I hate favorites probably as much as anybody on this board.  I am probably one of the only idiots that bet against Rachel and Zenyatta in ALL of their collective races last year.  Finding what I thought was \"value\" because they were so overbet.

That said, I find it hard to see a true flaw in Eskendereya, other than the \"mayhem of a 20 horse field\" (which may be enough reason alone to bet against him at 2-1 or so, for a lot of people).  

Yes, the pace will be faster, but what makes us think that will hurt Esky?  He relaxed beautifully off a dawdling pace in the Wood, while the \"closer\" being ridden by Leparoux was fighting the rider the whole way.  He got position fairly easily in the Fountain of Youth off an average pace.  He would seem to be able to be 5-6 lengths off the 1:10 and change we may see in the Derby.  He is well bred to get the distance and has an improving line, assuming he gets the figure we all expect him to get for the Wood.  He maybe moved forward 2 points.  He is certainly not sitting on \"bounce\" with a huge new top.  He won under a hand ride in the Wood and will get 4 weeks into the Derby, so the \"spacing\" people can\'t complain too much.  He is undefeated and possibly untested in his dirt races.  Horses that have finished behind him came back to run very well (running 1-2 in the Florida Derby).  Cynics can say that because he is trained by Pletcher and Pletcher has such a lousy Derby record will hurt his chances, but I am betting horses and their abilities more than trainers.  Even if I did factor trainers in, I would NOT consider Pletcher a negative.  I would call him neutral.  

So, he is the fastest horse, with in improving line, well bred to get the distance and seems to have the tactical ability to be placed anywhere.  And has blown out all his competition in dirt races, by open lengths.

I call that a solid favorite.

The second part that makes him deserving of the hype IMO is the lack of a good alternative.  Who are the solid contenders:

Lookin at Lucky - over-rated grinder with no tactical speed or acceleration
Sydney\'s Candy - talented horse IMO but figures to be part of what may be brutal pace battle in the derby
Noble\'s Promise - very nice horse, but the distance concerns are a reasonable question at this point
Dublin - I think he is the 2nd most talented horse in this crop, but he hasn\'t proven it yet on the track this year.  Gets his last chance to show that before the big race this weekend.

Hard to \"LOVE\" anybody else yet.  I am hoping the kind of race out of Dublin this weekend that gets me to \"Like\" him for the Derby, which can evolve into \"love\" if he wins.......

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I couldn\'t agree with all of this more and you articulated it much better than I could have.

One question though.  Where do you stand on Rule if the race were today?

1) fast figures relative to everyone except Esk
2) tremendous looking pattern with paired tops that still leave plenty of room for improvement from the 2 year old top
3) he will be well rested and has the proper spacing

obvious knocks are that he could be part of the speed dual you reference and he may have some distance limitations but he was the only one of the speed balls that hung around for a piece in the Fla Derby.

He will get a new jock for this one given that JV is on Esk and maybe that jock takes him back a bit more?

You think he has any chance for a piece at a nice price as he\'s been all but forgotten about.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

Rule is an interesting horse, especially from a \"sheets purist\" point of view.  For all the reasons you point out.  As a matter of fact, I would offer 2-1 that in the Derby Seminar, TGJB winds up keying either Rule or Dublin, both of whom fit the winning profile of:

1.  Solid 2 year old top
2.  Reasonable foundation at 2
3.  Proper spacing and good pattern at 3
4.  Don\'t need to have a huge amount of development from 2 to 3 to win

All that said, i will likely be throwing Rule out in the Derby. Barring major defections, the race dynamics will likely do him in,  IMHO.  He hasn\'t shown that \"rating gear\" he would need to win the Derby.  Hard for me to expect him to suddenly learn how to rate in the Derby and then win at 1 1/4.  There are several quality speeds pointing for the race and all of them getting bad starts or being taken back is a longshot. He did hang around kind of, at the end of the Derby, but visually I thought he gave it up too quick against what I thought was a mediocre field in that race.  If I want a horse to win at 1 1/4 on the first Saturday in May, he has to show more fight then he showed when confronted at the top of the stretch.  Hanging in for 3rd doesn\'t cut it IMO.  He fails the \"visual test\" for me.

To me there are a couple of horses that are similar in that they appear to have distance limitations, may not be at their best at 1 1/4, but have good figures.  Rule and Noble\'s Promise both fit into that bucket for me.  Of the two, I am inclined to give Noble\'s Promise a stronger chance to be competitive in the Derby (despite Cuvee being the sire and assuming both go off at similar prices).  I think he is more rateable and tactical.  

But like I said, I can\'t blame anybody for liking Rule.  I can\'t criticize his sheet at all.  If I just saw the sheet, didn\'t watch his races, know that he wants the lead and therefore believe he isn\'t rateable, I would likely be very high on the horse.

Sorry for the longwinded answer....

Jim

[covelj70]

very very thoughtful and helpful response.

Really appreciate it.

Jim

[rhagood]

Sportsbook.com has the following odds listed (all other 12-1 or higher):

Eskendereya    3-1   
Lookin at Lucky    9-2   
Sidneys Candy    9-2   
Drosselmeyer   10-1   (same for all listed below)
Setsuko      
Ice Box      
Endorsement      
Mission Impazible      
Discreetly Mine      
Dublin      
American Lion      
Rule      
Jackson Bend
Conveyance

World Sports Exchange (wsex.com)

ESKENDEREYA   8-5   
LOOKIN AT LUCKY   5-1   
SIDNEY\'S CANDY   10-1   
AWESOME ACT   14-1   
NOBLE\'S PROMISE   15-1   
DUBLIN   15-1   
RULE   20-1   
JACKSON BEND   25-1   
DISCREETLY MINE   25-1   
SETSUKO   25-1   
ODYSSEUS   25-1   
INTERACTIF   25-1   
ICE BOX   25-1   
MISSION IMPAZIBLE   25-1   
A LITTLE WARM   25-1   
SUPER SAVER   30-1   
DROSSELMEYER   30-1   
PLEASANT PRINCE   30-1   
ENDORSEMENT   30-1   
AMERICAN LION   35-1   
DEAN\'S KITTEN   35-1

[ajkreider]

At this stage, only his mother would bet Drosselmeyer at 10-1.