Where's Jimbo66?

[Halo Fire]

Has anyone heard from him?

I haven\'t seen him here. I hope he\'s cool.

[marcus]

Good question . It is that time of year when \'Jimbo usually kicks in . Always apreciated his well written and well thought out positions - even if in disagreement at times . He\'s an astute player imo  .  ..  hope All\'s well .

[covelj70]

Jimbo is greatly missed (at least by me).  I think he\'s an outstanding capper.  Hopw all is well with him.

[Halo Fire]

Hey Jimbo!

Very happy to read your name in a previous thread.

Jim, I have a big opinion in tomorrow\'s Illinois Derby. I really like Yawanna Twist for a number of reasons. Do you have an opinion of the race?

[covelj70]

I don\'t think I am going to play this race.

There\'s only 7 horses but I am having a tough time differentiating between Ywanna Twist, American Lion and Backtalk.  I could make a strong case for all of them and for me, it\'s a total toss up between those three so I can\'t find an angle.

good luck

[Halo Fire]

Jim Covelj70,

I can understand American Lion as a contender with the first time dirt angle as well as several other factors, however, my feeling is Backtalk has a hole in him somewhere. The time away is a concern and his super fast work earlier in the week can\'t possibly help.

Yawanna Twist has a strong, positive line, he\'s fast, and there\'s Tricky calling the shots. He figures to sit a perfect trip similar to all of his previous races. Contrary to popular belief, I feel I\'ll get 4-1 or better with the West Coast contingent attracting much respect.

To me, this is the bet of the three.

[covelj70]

Halo,

your thoughts make alot of sense.

The way American Lion runs, to me it seems like he will like dirt alot better and his pattern heading into his last race was excellent.

If he takes to the dirt, I would see him running a 1 or 2 in this spot which would be good enough.

YT looks great but, Musket Man not withstanding, I will always have some reservations about a Yonaguska going 1 1/8th.

Backtalk\'s pattern is awesome and he liable to jump forward but when they work that fast off of a big number, a bounce is very possible.

I just can\'t make too much sense in my own head of which of these things will win out tomorrow so I will just watch this one.

Great luck!

[jimbo66]

Guys,

Thanks for the good wishes.  yes, it is time to get \"back in action\" as the Triple Crown adrenaline is flowing.  

Yawanna ran a pretty good race but American Lion was really pulling away at the end.  

I guess yesterday\'s races mean we get a Derby favorite of 2-1 or less in Eskendereya.  I am guessing that the only way to poke holes in him will be to talk about his perfect trip 2 back, the slow pace yesterday and the old \"running a negative number new top in the last race before the derby angle\".  (I am assuming that Esky will get a new top in the negative range somewhere).

I am hoping that enough people saw the trouble that Lookin at Lucky got into, plus heard Baffert\'s crowing about the bad ride after the race, that they give Lookin At Lucky another shot in the Derby.  I think this is a slow horse that can be thrown out on Derby Day.  A grinder with limited tactical speed and limited acceleration, who will be single digit odds.  

I do believe there is a horse out there that has the potential to be very tough on derby day and make Eskendereya run, but he will have to prove himself next weekend.  Dublin had the nice 2 year old top, with a nice 2 year old foundation, then got back to that top last time out.  If we could see a little move forward next weekend, that could set him up for a nice race on Derby day.

[covelj70]

Hey Jimbo, good to have you back buddy. Missed you.

I will be curious to see what JB does with the Illinois Derby as it was run into a very strong headwind coming down the lane so while American Lion\'s 13 second final furlong looks slow at first glance, I think the figure will come back better than it looks.

He was running 4s on the syn which assuming the jump that many of the them see from syn to dirt, he\'s pretty fast.

I don\'t think any of the these belong in the same breath as Esk but strange things happen leading up to the derby and then in the 20 horse field so I am not giving up looking for some value in the race even though I think Esk is in a class by himself and would win the race 15 times out of 20.  Maybe May 1st will be one of the other 5 times or maybe something will leave the door ajar like Empire Maker before his Derby or Spectacular Bid before the Belmont.  I certainly don\'t wish any ill will on any of these beasts at all, the sport needs its heroes and this guy could be one but I am looking for some angle to at least contemplate beating the big horse because I don\'t see a legit one right now.

I will be the first to remind everyone that I took a big stand against Big Brown in the Derby.  I am not anxious to try so hard to find something that\'s not there again that I miss what\'s right in front of me.  The fastest horse with the right running style and the best pedigree for the distance in the race with a jock who\'s run well in the Derby before.  

Yes pletcher is 0 for 26 but how many did Lukas lose before he went on his run?

[SonicDonn]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
I am not anxious to try so hard to find something
 that\'s not there again that I miss what\'s right in
 front of me.




Great wisdom can be found on a horse racing/betting forum.