Derby Thoughts

[mjellish]

I would still contend that overall this is a pretty slow group of three year old colts.  They may get better over time, but as of right no one has done enough to really seperate themselves from the pack.

I think the pace is going to be pretty quick.  I see LOD and CON as the pace setters.  SC runs like a pretty smart horse to me and I think he is going to rate behind the speed.  I can\'t say that with 100% confidence, but I think that\'s the right way to look at the race.  So I put him with SS, AL, & DM right behind the speed.  I don\'t give LOD or CON much of a chance, and some of the others don\'t look to me like they have 10F in them.  So I see tiring speed on the turn and rallying speed and pressers beginning to make their move.  To me, that equals some serious ground loss, perhaps even more than usual.  So IMO the post draw is going to be even more important ever this year, and it\'s going to take a little luck to cash.

I think this year\'s winner is going to come from off the pace. And given what these guys have done up until this point I think you have to include LAL.  I\'ve heard some thoughts about tossing him because he is a plodder, but I don\'t see him that way.  To my eye he has a pretty quick turn of foot.  In the Rebel he had to jump up over the back of heels just as he was commencing his run, but he quickly regained his momentum and gutted out the win.  He got stopped cold in SA Derby but still managed to re-rally and get up for third.  So to me, he is pretty athletic.  He comes into this off 4 weeks, has worked very well, gives every indication that he will get the distance and his top is fast enough to contend.  He\'s only developed 3 points from his 2 year old top, so I think he\'s got room left to run a new top here.  With the right trip I think you have to make him one of the most likely to hit the board.

I also have to include the filly.  She has the right style and long with AL she\'s the fastest horse in the race after adjusting for weight.  She\'s coming in off 6 weeks rest after running a new top in the Bonnie Miss and ran pretty fast as a 2 year old.  Sire Profile would seem to indicate that she isn\'t too likely to develop much more than she already has.  But with the 6 weeks, addition of blinkers and the way she has been training (which has been unbelievable), I have to figure she is going to run back to her best here if she doesn\'t leave her race in the paddock.

My other key horse probably isn\'t going to get a lot of support on this board, but it is going to be Paddy O\'Prado.  I love the way this guy is training leading up to this.  Only horse that had a workout that really turned my head.  Because of that I went back and watched all of his earlier races, and what I saw was a green horse with a ton of talent that took awhile to really put it all together.  After coming from pretty far out of it for his first 4 races, he suddenly showed improved early lick in the Palm Beach and kicked away from the field strongly to break his maiden  with authority in a GIII stakes.  He then showed surprising early speed in the Bluegrass as well and pulled away from the field on the turn after a 3w 2w trip.  Anytime I see a closing horse suddenly show early lick it\'s almost always a strong sign of pending improvement, and these three year olds can get very good very quick when the lights abruptly turn on.  He comes from the El Prado/Sadler\'s Wells line out of a Prized mare, so it\'s no wonder it\'s taken him awhile to develop.  The added distance should actually move him up.  Overall his running line this year shows steady improvement, and he\'s actually bred to be a little better on dirt than on grass.  I think this guy has a great chance to hit the board at 20-1 or so, and a chance to win the race outright as well.  He\'s fast enough to sit just behind all of that speed and get first run at them on the turn, but he has experience closing in above average size fields and has encountered traffic before.  That experience is going to bode well for him and, although it\'s a bit of a reach, with a decent trip he just may get there.

So I am going to structure my bet with at least 2 of these three hitting the board.  I am going to play several of the other contenders along with these three keyed in tri\'s and supers.  Among the contenders I will play AA and MI strongest.  

If all three of my key horses run in the tri and/or super I should do pretty well.

[joekay]

If you like Paddy, do you have an opinion on the horse that beat him, SV?  I was interested to read what his owner said about him today.  Also, what about Endorsement?

[Silver Charm]

I think LAL is primed to run the race of his life. I also think at 4-1 he is not a good win bet. This is a good horse with talent and Baffert will \"Woody Stephens\" his trainee into a top effort on the day it counts the most. (See Forty Niner) But this is a horse who only run past 1 and 1/16th once. There is a lot to ask here and you are not getting paid. However this horse is a must use.

Syd\'s Candy rated when he won a short maiden. Did not rate in the last few but wasn\'t that supposed to be a hard thing to do in Calif on Synthetic. So now he has wired in consecutive routes and the Trainer has another confirmed frontrunner. So does the trainer of LAL. So Syd\'s Candy is not going to be on the an isolated lead unless an accident happens. Can he lay 3rd or 4th about 3 off and win. At about 6-1 it might be worth finding out. He did whip the above pretty good. Trouble or no trouble.

Mission Impazible is an interesting horse. Broke his maiden in April going 4 and 1/2 and ran last year on Derby weekend in a Stake. Almost skipped his conditions at 3 and went straight to Stakes company and now comes into town an improving sort, with long rest, ok works, precocious pedigree and a head scratching read at about 12-1. Should be used.

Ice Box fits the Zito pattern of a horse who looked like nothing, stretched out then became a race horse. Florida Derby being dissed but he came home the last 3/8ths in 37, gets good rest, a conditioner who knows how to find the winners circle in the Derby, training up a storm at CD and is the Key at 25-1.

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think LAL is primed to run the race of his life.
> ...this horse is a must use.
>
> Ice Box fits the Zito pattern of a horse who
> looked like nothing, stretched out then became a
> race horse. Florida Derby being dissed but he came
> home the last 3/8ths in 37, gets good rest, a
> conditioner who knows how to find the winners
> circle in the Derby, training up a storm at CD and
> is the Key at 25-1.

Andy Beyer just picked Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box as his top two in the DRF chat.

FWIW.

[Silver Charm]

Andy is due

(wink)

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Andy is due
>
> (wink)

You mean, \"due\", like my Chicago Cubs?  (wink)

Don\'t mean to pick on Andy, Hell, anyone can have 30 consecutive bad Derbies.

[bellsbendboy]

Always a good read MJ and I share a similar opinion, to a point.  While this race is often a crapshoot, this year without the \"big horse\" actually looks pretty formful.  As with any two turn race finding the speed is key and CONVEYANCE blows these away.

The way I see it, The \"baffert entry\" stands little chance of staying the trip but eliminates Line of David, Super Saver, American Lion, Discreetly Mine and a few of the others.

On pedigree, Jackson\'s Bend. Nobles Promise and Conveyance appear hopeless.  Deans Kitten and Home Boy Kris are not good enough to crack the super and I expect TAP to enter Interactif, another toss, to exclude Backtalk who would have some appeal at a zillion to one.

Race shape should knock out \"Sidney\", Endorsement and Dublin although a minor award is difficult to exclude.

That leaves some price horses that probably will not win but could exotic up.  Mission Impazible showed a REMARKABLE turn of foot in his debut and a ton of courage in New Orleans but two turn experience a bit thin,   Ice Box has been nine panels thrice as a sophomore and won the picture for the Fla. derby but Nick has been reluctant to work this one more than a half and he has been very green in his races, and Stately Victor who drew the fence in four of his first five races and the 14 hole the other try!  The race after, he expolded in the stretch in a turf race where the configuration flattered front runners, then won the Bluegrass powerfully before working lights out across town.  Still the derby winner does not go fifth, seventh, fifth, eighth, and fifth in sucessive races.  Nevertheless any one of these, and probably just one could/will get in the exotics.

That leaves a quartet of contenders and while \"Lucky\" is the most likely his soreness is plenty evident.  Not that sore horses do not win every day but at  say seven to two he certainly is not what your looking for even with his \"entrymate\" eliminating half of them.  The filly could run anywhere, (except the Oaks) and TAP pulling the hood today for the gallop is beyond explanation.  This barn has had some PR troubles since the big horse apparently was injected before the Wood but they still thought Esky would win and who could blame them.  \"Paddy O\'Prado is the wiseguy horse and as you elucidate could certainly win, although he is eligible for an entry level allowance.  Awesome Act is not fast enough, nor is he a grade one or two winner but he seems dead red.  Out of a half to Machevellian he has been trained to the minute by his absentee, volcanic troubled conditioner. Monster move this morning with a big time gallop out, impeccable connections and pedigree, with the rider giving up a rich GP Saturday to ride in the Gotham tour de force... the most likely?  Agree post positions key with the inside being death this year.  Sorry for your future play but trust you\'ll make a winning play.  Look forward to JB\'s take tomorrow night as for the first time race shapes may trump figures...How about that? bbb

[Silver Charm]

bbb elaborate on the shortness on Ice Boxes works. Why the reluctance? Physical or mental? Very good point however for a horse who has been off six weeks.

Also what bad PR for TAP injecting Esky before the Wood. Did I miss those charges or stories in the DRF?

[sekrah]

I like Paddy.  Bet him heavy in the Bluegrass, was lucky to follow Michael D to get the exacta with SV.   That Palm Beach G3 Turf race is very impressive IMO.  1:10, 1:33.2, 1:45.2.  Loads of speed, loads of stamina.   Working great this week.

Not sure if I want to move him into my Top 3, but he\'ll definently find his way onto some of my tickets.

[jack72906]

What makes the turf win look even better was that the rail was set to 96ft. for the March 6th race. This rail position favors closers at GP and POP basically took them wire to wire at a 1 1/8.

I also like Kent D. as the rider. I know that he\'ll do everything to have that horse in the right position given the way the track is playing that day.