nyc1347 Wrote:
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> Looking at the current odds i have come up with a
> few things... lets run em down...
>
>
> 1 - Lookin at Lucky - i have seen so many
> times horses run a top with baffert then an off
> number then back to a top.. i am expecting a top
> effort with LAL BUT not a new top and a top effort
> alone wouldnt be good enough here so i will pass
> from my betting perspective.
>
> 2 - Ice Box - Nothing wrong with him other than
> odds.. to me the odds are way too low to even play
> and for all i know he can win but i will go
> against think THAT will not happen.
>
> 3 - nobles promise - my opinion on Np is similar
> to LAL where i expect a top effort BUT not a new
> top. His top will put him in the mix but not in
> the winners circle. I do have him in futures to
> win but looking at this race for PPs and for odds
> and what it is im being honest and dont think he
> is a key BUT a definite use for exotics
> SOMEWHERE.
>
> 4 - Super Saver - to me the this horse has a nice
> line but is too slow.. the reason he is most
> likely taken so much money is because the public
> sees this as Pletchers fastest male horse and i am
> not buying it at all.. hes been great until that
> stretch and then just mediocre compared to the
> winner so i will pass to win but another to use in
> exotics.
>
> 5 - Line of David - I think he will get buried
> somewhere along the way and do not like.
>
> 6 - Stately Victor - out of my favorite horse of
> all time but is WAYYYY overbet imo i will pass.
>
> 7 - American Lion - trickiest horse i see..
> fastest coming in off the thoros and ran a new
> dirt top.. hes shown to need the lead on poly but
> what makes us think he cant rate on the dirt?
> most likely NOT and according to his history he
> will need a lead to win and i do not like that as
> well as 3 weeks off of a new dirt top.. i will
> with no doubt toss.. genuinely doesnt make sense
> to play him.
>
> 8 - Deans Kitten - lol someone who is wealthy
> named Dean must have a kitten who made this ones
> odds go down.. u see that off track effort?
> ewwwwww
>
> 9 - Make Music for Me - i have to say this one is
> a definite use underneath in the exotics for me as
> he is going forward but I dont think he will win
> so exotic wagers i would use underneath.
>
> 10 - Paddy O\' Prado - looks pretty consistent to
> me and i would think he can run better than most
> of these.. i will say he has one of the best shots
> to win and i hate to admit it cause i really hate
> this horse lol nothing wrong though everything is
> in line
>
> 11 - Devil May Care - has no reason not to run a
> top.. the odds are perfectly in line and her
> chances exceed that. With other bet down
> ridiculously and faster horses higher odds THIS
> one sticks out as value due to the idea of us
> knowing that she should run with no problem. I
> believe she will have blinkers too and it can only
> help running in such a big race so I will take a
> stand on the filly and say that everything is
> consistent with her chances based on analysis,
> odds, form, opinion, etc.. also will be stalking
> the fast pace so all systems are a go!
>
> 12 - Conveyance - part of that speed and i cant
> see him holding on.. he melted last timei cant
> imagine him holding on for this distance
> whatsoever
>
> 13 - Jackson Bend - expecting an even effort of
> sorts and this horse kinda reminds me of Birdstone
> where he forged forward towards his 2 yo top but
> didnt exceed it for several races in his 3 yo
> campaign.. im waiting for this one to show a
> slight improvement within the next couple of races
> and then an explosion but i do not think that
> explosion will happen this race.. MAYBE a new top
> but to me it wouldnt be big enough to win and with
> lose of ground a maybe horse for 4th.
>
> 14 - Mission Impazible - looks like he will fire
> but who knows where he will be in this race..
> think he can run a new top but dont think it will
> be good enough to win here... odds are good
> though
>
> 15 - Discreetly Mine - will pass completely.. i
> did not like his last race and a toss in my eyes
>
> 16 - Awesome Act - improved so much and would
> need another pretty big improvement to win.. stuck
> outside and with his style i do not like at all
>
> 17 - Dublin - 3 weeks off and i expect a bounce
> or off race.. hes def not getting 1w1w lol so we
> can forget about that and to be blunt he has no
> balls going down the stretch.. il pass
>
> 18 - Backtalk - remember that blazing workout at
> hawthorne.. howd that work for him? Yawanna Twist
> beat him and that horse isnt even in here.. PASS
>
> 19 - Homeboykris - 18th place sounds about right
>
> 20 - Sidneys Candy - i expect this one to run his
> heart out but geeeeez its goin to be toooo much
> once he hits the stretch.. im expecting a faded
> tiring effort and for that i will toss
>
>
> overall - The filly is my pick. DMC is the ONLY
> horse who i totally expect to run within herself
> no problem and fits just right with all the
> garbage variables that we are presented. I asked
> myself after everything \"who WILL run their race?\"
> and the only one i had so much confidence in was
> DMC.
>
> 11 with 1, 3, 4, 9, 10 14.. i will wheel that up
> and down for a $50 exacta.. Il box them all for
> $10... $10 trifecta 11 on top.. $2 super 11 on
> top. $5000 to show and add those horses in my
> pick 3 and 4 tickets! Good luck to all!
Very good analysis NYC
I\'ve got it pretty close to you..1,4,9,10,14,16..For all the reasons you mentioned above..I don\'t like the filly though..
