El Real Madrid 2nd Spa Yesterday

[miff]

For NYC,

You being the board\'s \'rest\' theorist, how do you reconcile El Real Madrid\'s second win in 3 days(3rd race in 8 days)Pssst Tricky crew bet with both hands.

Do you think that maybe some horses have different recuperative powers regardless of what level and what figs they ran prior.

Mike

[nyc1347]

Rest to me is much more important when your dealing with younger horses who havent established set numbers, pattern and growth.  Its also important for horses who hit new significant top efforts.  

El Madrid is completely in line with all his efforts and is running great.  He also showed momentum prior on his thorograph that he forged forward to a top off low rest back as a 3 year old with no problem.  Rest for this horse isnt as big of a deal as it is for others because all his numbers are consistenly within the 3-7 ballpark. He also isnt running ridiculously fast negative numbers that would make him react and knock him out.  

I know Tricky Dicky does his 3-5 days off shpeal over at Monmouth Park and during the summer times especially.. and geez he did really well here.  Ive never seen him do 3 races like this but the horse is running well and i guess he figured why not?  His percentage ITM with rest under 11 days is almost %70!!  thats CRAZY GOOD! Plus he stepped the horse up in class this past race so he really had nothing to lose.  I think the biggest reason he can get away with this so much is because hes doing it at the claimer level with consistent horses overall as proven within that stat.  When you have a consistent horse like this hes in a perfect spot each race cause hes more likely to be one of the most reliable sound horses running cause hes within his means.  Add the angle of facing the droppers from higher claimer races that havent done well and are off form and even horses who are stepping up in class needing to run tops in order to compete and your looking good to run pretty well each time with a horse like this.

As far as different recoop powers, every horse is totally different.. the faster these horses run the worst.  I mentioned a horse like Ice Box in my travers analysis and this is a PERFECT example of a horse who simply has run way too fast.  That Florida Derby figure is out of this horses means and the only reason he popped in my opinion is because of momentum leading into that race.  When he popped that ruined everything cause he received only 6-8 weeks rest which still wasnt enough to get back to a top effort. Any off effort for IB just wont be good enough to compete at the level he is currently at.

Horses like that will probably never get back to a top effort again or it will take a long time.  Its just way too much development, way too fast for the horse in a way too sudden situation.   On the other hand, you can have a horse who can keep going like a Curlin.. but they are just freak horses and shouldnt be compared to a normal type horse.

[miff]

\"Horses like that will probably never get back to a top effort again or it will take a long time. Its just way too much development, way too fast for the horse in a way too sudden situation\"

nyc,

not even close in all cases. ice box has ALWAYS has issues, even before he started. it also has to do with unsoundness/physical issues and inbred genetic inferiority. there are many, many, many young horses that do NOT run big figures but have to be stopped on for a multitude of reasons, some for good.of course there will be some horses that run way too fast for their undeveloped bodies and they are ruined.

They are also many exceptions, Rachel, Big Brown,Quality Road, to name a few, and many others over many years, strictly random.All athletes get hurt, baskets, football, horses and most never perform their best all the time for variety of reasons.


Mike

[nyc1347]

thats def true!  its sickening when you actually think about it.... and sad!

hey i was thinking.. if tricky dicky gives el madrid some rest he can actually do the same exact thing in october at monmouth since they are running til november this year.   that be something else! easy $50-100k in purse money within months off a 20k claimer!  life is good!

[racmygame]

This reminds me. A long time ago Thorograph used to have a couple of cassette tapes they sent out for free for anyone that wanted to get started with the Thorograph sheets. (remember Jerry) Well one of the tapes talked about young horses 2yrs old and first time starters who do and don\'t protect themselves. The ones that don\'t and run a huge number there first race are normally toast the rest of there career. Now this was before las six and bute and i think oscar berrara. Just my 2 cents, the subject brought back some old memories.

Bob

[Sandreadis]

He was claimed for 25K in the race. Are people starting to roll the dice more claiming from \"move up\" trainers?

[TGJB]

Miff-- I\'m curious as to what Big Brown and Quality Road are supposed to indicate.

As for the rest issue-- you think that someone here is suggesting that more rest is always better, independent of situation? You think we broke the trainer stats out by time between races by mistake?

It\'s becoming clear that your \"Kool-Ade\' comments are mostly because you don;t understand what we\'re saying.

[nyc1347]

Trainer stats wouldnt bring me to that specific horse though.  All the trainers in that race have a range from %30-68 percent ITM with their respective category of days off.  The PATTERN of this horse is extremely consistent and I can see why Tricky would do what he did with him.  He spots his horses well within their competition and all horses cannot do what he did.  

With me personally %90 of the races I play are Allowance and Stakes races where the class of horses are much more consistent.  At the highest levels those stats are more meaningless cause all the trainers are the best in the country racing against each other and have similar percentages.  It comes down to what each individual horse has shown or is projected to show for its next race compared to one another.  I can sit here and wait for Tricky to be ITM at %68 all day but id get back %5-40 Range on a show wager so what would be the point?  Its a losing wager especially when hes double fisting winning tickets on his own angle.

[miff]

JB,

1.Big Brown et al are just a few examples of young horses who were very fast, neg fig horses, which did not go bad and dispels the inane theory that young horses will eventually go bad(or need extra rest) solely because they run fast all the time.Only a Kool Aid drinker(how come we spell \"Aid\" differently) would think that. They may wish to check out \"random occurence\" born unsound/bad conformation, etc as to why some young fast horses go bad and others do not.Guys in the Hall of Fame don\'t know why some implode, but numbers on a piece of paper explain it??

2.Without question, Ive read here on numerous occasions why 4 weeks is better than 3 weeks etc, pure voodoo, it\'s case by case and no one ever states anything about different situation.

3.Not sure as to your reference as to why you break out trainer stats,the intent is obvious.


Mike

[TGJB]

Not sure? I\'ll spell it out. It\'s because some trainers do BETTER the shorter the rest of their horses. Classic example is Badgett. Some trainers do WORSE. Classic example is Alan Jerkens (by memory), Onion 37 years ago notwithstanding. There is no simplistic answer to whether more or less rest is better. The races discussed here are almost always STAKE races. Handicapping them is a whole different ballgame from handicapping claimers.

Both BB and QR DID go bad, for a while. QR missed the TC races, remember? And BB, after running close together in the TC, never got back to the figures he ran in the spring. Doesn\'t prove a cause and effect relationship, but certainly you picked two bad choices to disprove one.

[nyc1347]

Big Brown did go bad though miff.. that momentum within his pattern carried BB forward to negative 3-4 territory and once he went backwards in the Preakness he was never able to get back to his top even though he retired after 2 more races. Even WITH rest he came back to race at the Haskell and was still a few points off his best effort.  The negative 4 area wouldve been extremely tough to get to without that momentum again in the future (circle pattern) or given plenty of rest with a random pop of that same top.

[miff]

Big Brown, his only real problem was quarater cracks as was QR, zero to do with how fast they ran, 4 claimers pop quarters every day, as you know.

True about stake/claiming races and if they ALL ran back in stakes in two weeks instead of 4-5, the results would most likely be the same over the long haul.

Guess you were never a harness guy, they break world records hours apart, never mind weeks apart.


Mike

[TGJB]

Right, because there\'s no difference between harness horses-- who don\'t slow down as the race goes on, and are far less likely to run fast enough to injure themselves (especially front end)-- and thoroughbreds, who exhaust themselves and get hurt regularly.

Yeah, you\'re probably right. The record of horses going for the TC in their third start in 5 weeks is probably a coincidence, as is the later record of horses who run in all three legs.