Juvenile

[albany]

I believe the Juvenile presents a great betting opportunity.

The two favorites are logical, but not compelling. I think Stay Thirsty, as the longer price of the uncoupled Pletcher entry, will provide value. Prior to their debuts, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty often worked together. They were inseparable on many occasions and Pletcher has noted that Stay Thirsty may gain the advantage as the distances become longer. Stay Thirsty stumbled at the start of the Hopeful and nevertheless gave a good account of himself against the highly touted Boys at Tosconova. He\'s been working steadily for the stretchout in the Breeders Cup and should be somewhere around 8-1.

[Uncle Buck]

Pletcher saddled seven today. ONE hit the board. Based on what transpired with Life @ 10 I\'m thinking Pletcher is poison.

Baffert meanwhile completely whiffed. Sadler ran second one time. Dutrow - nada. Asmussen - nada.

Doesn\'t look to me like the heavyweight corporate trainers are going to do much this year. Just another consideration in a brutal Breeder\'s Cup.

The ESPN commentators made a specific point about synth runners not doing well but they must have been tired. Eldaffer came off the plastic to score in the marathon and Dubai Majesty came off the platic to win the FM Sprint. Switch - another plastic horse ran second.

I doubt the track changes much overnight. Stalkers 4 or 5 lengths off should do well again provided they go wide. Who would have ever thought wide trips were the key to cashing

[sekrah]

Eldaafer is 4-1-0-0 on synth vs 15-6-0-4 on dirt.  
Dubai Majesty is 6-1-3-1 on synth vs 26-10-4-5 on all other surfaces.

These are not synth runners.  They are proven dirt winners who just happened to run their last on synth.

[P-Dub]

Looking at past runnings, a positive pattern is a horse running 2-3 races in the 5-7 range forging a bit and jumping up on the big day. Street Sense had this pattern, as did Steviewonderboy.

Horses that jump up in their last race have at times regressed.  Cuvee in 2003 ran an 11 first out, jumped to a couple of -1/2 in his next 2 races and bounced in the BC at 8/5. At likely short odds, Boys at Tosconova has this same pattern. Slow first out followed by 2 neg figures. They both have the same amount of rest going in. If he beats me, he beats me.  But this is the type of lightly raced, short odds horse that I will take a shot against.

Uncle Mo is a little different, he\'s run twice and both were FAST. But he has a BI in his last, and is a speed horse on a track that certainly didn\'t favor front runners or those on the rail, which is where he will be if in front. Hard to play on top, tough to toss, must use underneath.

Not in love with Stay Thirsty, he had a 5 pt jump, similar to horses like Proud Accolade in 20004 who was 5/2 and bounced out of the money, Scat Daddy in 2005 at 7/2 albeit with shorter rest. I think he will be 3rd choice and may be an underlay. So what horses can jump up at a price??

The only horse that interests me is J P\'s Gusto.  He has run a string of races over synthetics in the 4-6 range, and as I mentioned this pattern has served others well. At 10/1 ML and going off possibly higher, he is a square price to move forward. Solid connections, TGI index slanted slightly towards dirt.  If the track plays similar to today, P Val can track outside a few lengths back and make a run. That was a winning formula on the main track on Friday.

I\'ll take a flyer on JP\'s Gusto to win. Not crazy with vertical wagers if Mo hits the board. Perhaps Stay Thirsty as an under key, he can hit the board. Might use the all button with the 2 keys. JP on top, Stay Thirsty in 2nd/3rd with all. Odds check needed.

JPs is a key in horizontal bets.  Allows for spreading in other races. Uncle Mo and Boys At Toscanova will be underlays in the pools, just like Midday. Beating short priced horses is what makes the Cup such a great card to play.

Good luck however you play the race.

[Badride]

Stay thirsty is the key horse period.  I thought he tried to come again on boys once he was passed.  With a bit of a bad break, wanting to surely stretch, a little seasoning, he\'s the only logical bet other than both chalks.

[big18741]

Agreed with J P\'s Gusto.

Hofmans is very strong with two year olds and training him to take back off it some in his works since the Norfolk.Succesful Appeals a couple of points better over dirt and it looks like they can work out a trip sitting off the pace horses.

Not sure what they do with Boys from that post but he\'s my saver on top.

[mjellish]

I was pretty impressed with Jaycito\'s last race.  But the draw really hurt his chances.  Tough to win at Churchill from the far outside.  The first turn is so close to the start.

[toppled]

I\'m trying something off the sheet #s here.  I\'m going with #9 Rogue Romance.  I think the horse has shown a lot of class winning his last 2 on turf.  Breeding indicates no problem switching to dirt.  While BOT & UM tower over him in the speed #s, they both might have run too fast too early, plus they both have sire profiles which show might not be able to run their sprint #s on a stretch-out.  Now I don\'t know if I can get him all the way to the win spot, but I\'m going to try, along with exacta boxes.  I\'m also putting him in all 3 spots in $1 tris with 6 others and doing the same in all 4 spots in 10 cent supers.  Bombs away!

[P-Dub]

Badride Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stay thirsty is the key horse period.  I thought
> he tried to come again on boys once he was passed.
>  With a bit of a bad break, wanting to surely
> stretch, a little seasoning, he\'s the only logical
> bet other than both chalks.


I don\'t know about the only logical part, but we\'ll find out. These are lightly raced 2 YOs, hard to know which ones will jump up today. I\'ll take a chance on JPs who has a pattern that, IMO, gives him a chance to jump up at a price. Stay Thirsty just improved 5 pts, and if he repeats he has a shot.  Lets see what the tote board says this afternoon. Stay Thirsty may take action and if he does, what price becomes acceptable?? Good Luck.