Marlin Wrote:
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> Granted, I am still learning the TG process, but
> been handicapping for over 25 years. Looks like
> NH bounced @ CD regardless of the rail issue.
> Seems like a huge jump from the synthetics as
> well, so can we really expect a negative number
> again? Still learning, but this is my initial
> view. HELP me understand.
> Thanks.
I wondered the same thing -- but, I think there are some differences here. First, see moved forward second time on dirt. Because of that, it suggests to me that she was really a dirt horse who had been running on the wrong surface. The one time synth to dirt wonders are exactly that -- one time wonders -- I would have suspected her of being at risk for that her second time dirt and would have been wrong. Given that she is probably a dirt horse that spent her early career on the wrong surface, that means you can just disregard her prior number history. In fact, it suggests that the positive 1.5 first time dirt for her was not too tough on her (since she could move forward off it to the minus 1). In light of the two good numbers reinforcing each other, I would feel much more comfortable with that establishing what she is than in situations where we have a single isolate number. In terms of the bounce.....if she were not dead rail, you could definitely think she bounced, but you could also think that it is not so critical to her path forward. In other words, even if you give her a bounce, I would still think she has a solid chance of coming back to where she was before the bounce. The beauty of the Dead Rail is that you have two shots with her...maybe it was a bounce and maybe it was not a bounce...in my view, that is a better situation to be in than if it was definitely a bounce (which as I explained I do not see as such a critical issue). While I do think she is the most likely winner as described by the ROTW analysis (also weight and likely rail on turn help a lot too), I am not so sure how much value will be there. The field is a relatively short field (especially once you realize that there are several completely non-contenders who will not take much money). The only real \"angle\" would be to be against Pletcher\'s horse -- however, that horse could be dead on the board anyhow. I could be surprised, but I suspect Nicole H will not represent a lot of value -- it is not like she is a lead pipe cinch or anything....she is really just the most likely winner who might go off as a second choice. At least that is the way I see it.
