Midnight Interlude's SA Fig

[jimbo66]

Mj,

I think you have a really good point.  That might be a bit self serving because I have posted here various times pre-synthetic and now post-synthetic in California that TGJB seems to have the California races too slow.  TGJB has responded to my queries and thinks Beyer has it too fast.  

One of the things I like about this forum as opposed to the \"kool aid\" drinkers in the Rags forums is that not everybody has to agree here and although TGJB NEVER admits he is wrong, he is at least open to being questioned.  

That said, I am skeptical when California dirt shippers come east with slowish TG figures.  Another example happened in the Derby Trial this past Saturday.  Very very hard to even consider the Asmussen horse when looking at TG.  I factored him a couple points faster and that made him a a contender with shot to win.  TGJB will likely have to show a big jump up for the horse.  

Miff mentioned one of the large Derby discrepancies between TG and Rags, but for those that have access to both sets of sheets, try handicapping the Oaks.  On Rags, Joyful Victory is a non-contender.  Way too slow to win.  Would need a 4 point move up.  (and I am talking post-scratch of R Heat Lightning).  You have to bet Zazu if you are using Rags, with the only other horses within possible reach being Mr. Covello\'s Lilacs and Lace, along with the Baffert. THose that have looked at the TG figures probably have to say that Joyful Victory is the most likely winner now that R Heat Lightning has scratched.

Over the years, when I have looked at these large discrepancies, the Rags figures don\'t hold up, which is why I don\'t use them.  However, the one area where I struggle with TG is the California dirt figs, which don\'t seem to hold up as well outside the circuit.  I realize that is a tough statement to make because the statistical sample of horses leaving the circuit is not that large, but it has happened too many times over the years in big events like the Breeders Cup, where I have thrown out California dirt horses with slow TG figs that made them non-contenders, only to have them seemingly \"step up big\".

We are all adults and responsible for our own decisions.  Make your own call.

To me, as far as Midnight Interlude goes, I think he is faster than TG has him, but I don\'t think it matters.  No two year old foundation and beat a horrific Santa Anita Derby field.  He is either too slow (if you believe TG) or he moved up 6 points and is likely to bounce (if you think TG has him too slow).  I think either way he is a \"toss\".

[TGJB]

Miff-- you\'re right about Soldat, and there are some other interesting things on the Rag sheets as well (like the relationship between the Oaks fillies coming from FG and OP). Also right about them using the fan out in the stretch in the ground loss, which creates multiple problems-- Ragozin says in his book that he sometimes bases a whole day on one horse, so if that one\'s figure is inflated a point or two it can affect an awful lot of other figures.

Yes, as I have said several times, Beyer and Ragozin have California a couple of points fast. I suspect this has to do with sticking to the use of pars for a long time (and from something in one of the DRF columns a while back I think some of their figure makers still might be using them). Southern California racing has been decimated-- they have an inflated claiming structure and five horse fields filled with Cal breds. If you start with the assumption that a 25 claimer there is going to average the same figure as one at GP or OP your figures will go off the tracks pretty fast.

I had the track at SA 4/9 getting a little faster late in the day, and I added a little to the SA Derby relative to the other route. It looks right, but I\'ll take a look at it after more have run back.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- so when Silver Medallion comes east and runs 3 points worse than his last two Cal figures (to choose just one of many, many examples) does that mean my Cal figures are too fast? I mean, the horse\'s 3 Cal figures are 7,6,6, the best of his five figures outside Cal is 9. I\'m going to change the whole data base, Cal figures too fast.

Dominus-- seriously? One race last year and one this year, and a forward move (assuming he made one) is a shock?

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

I specifically said \"dirt figures\".  What Silver Medallion ran at Golden Gate and on the ridiculous Keenland surface are meaningless to me as far as reading his pattern.  

As for Dominus, he was not the trigger point for me with your Cali figures.  I made that decision years ago, specifically after the STevie Wonderboy Breeder\'s Cup.  That was a tipping point for me.  I don\'t want to bore the board here with rehashing that, but that thread can be searched pretty easily.  No less than 5 races on that card resulted in \"no shot\" slow Cali dirt horses winning.  When I questioned you, you responded \"I knew somebody was going to ask it and I knew it was probably going to be you\", and you went to talk about how you were going to revisit those horses in the coming weeks/months, etc.

Everybody can handicap the way they think works best for them.  When I see a California horse ship east to a dirt track, I automatically adjust the figure 2 points faster.  Been doing that for a while and having good results.

TGJB, I know I am not alone with this.  When this topic comes up on the board, I get quite a few private messages from what I would call the sharper handicappers on this board that have the same view.  Yes, possibly we are wrong, but I don\'t think so.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- make a list of the next ten that ship from California to NY or Ky. Three year olds run a lot of tops so you can\'t really use them, just older horses.

We went through this a year or two ago. Almost every one that ran a new top was one and done, Stevie included (he might have made one more start). That lends credence to the idea that they were indeed new tops. And yes, many were going synth/dirt, there was no dirt out there.

Things are a little busy around here this week, but I want to revisit this next week and put it to bed. I just hope they don\'t make me give back the money from Student Council, Super Frolic, and Even The Score, who went out to California and somehow ran back to their inflated eastern figures.

By the way, Silver Medallion ran a 7 1/2 on grass in California, better than he ran on either grass or poly in the east.

One more thing-- California is the only state that takes drug testing seriously. Certain trainers will get some move-ups when they go somewhere else. That\'s true of certain trainers shipping from and to other tracks as well.

[Ill-bred]

However fast it was, I will play Midnight Interlude to pair up or bounce slightly.

To me that makes him a minor use underneath. Only used under my main key horse(s).