Animal Kingdom -- Quiet Times on the Farm

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
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> Maybe we are talking more semantics here than
> anything else.  When I say Athletic, I mean
> capable of multiple moves, shifting gears.
> Looking at Lucky was Athletic.  Afleet Alex was
> Athletic.
>
> And No, I don\'t see AK that way.  Not at all.
> He\'s got one sustained move.  I\'m not saying he
> isn\'t talented.  I\'m saying if he gets any
> trouble, can he overcome it?  I haven\'t seen it
> and don\'t think I will.  He\'s a big, rangy runner
> with superior stamina.  But athletic, no.  That
> usually means wide trip.  And when you are the KY
> Derby winner you are the one with a bullseye on
> your back.
>
> So to be clear, my contention is that if another
> horse with some stamina gets the jump on AK, or if
> AK gets blocked or has to go really wide, I think
> bounce or no bounce for AK, the other horse gets
> to the wire first.  AK runs like a turf horse.


I\'m guessing you haven\'t watched any of his 2 year old races?   I watched every race of all the contenders prior to the Derby and remember be very impressed with his stop and restart button after hitting trouble.

He\'s got a big middle move in his 3yo debut back at Gulfstream too.

For a \"sustained\" runner, this horse looks very athletic from what I\'ve seen.

[sekrah]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIH68z6aIFA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QajElKbxrEA&feature=related

If this horse don\'t have multiple gears, then I guess we\'re all just blind and
stupid mjellish.  You don\'t win a slow-paced Derby without multiple gears.

In that top video (maiden debut loss to Wilcox Inn), he checked repeatedly going into the 2nd turn, swung abruptly wide coming into the stretch and exploded.   He was actually moving better than the winner over the last 60-80 meters.

[PonyBologna]

sekrah Wrote:
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> I\'m guessing you haven\'t watched any of his 2 year
> old races?   I watched every race of all the
> contenders prior to the Derby and remember be very
> impressed with his stop and restart button after
> hitting trouble.
>
> He\'s got a big middle move in his 3yo debut back
> at Gulfstream too.
>
> For a \"sustained\" runner, this horse looks very
> athletic from what I\'ve seen.


I don\'t understand how you can go from \"If I were to rank the horses in this field, Animal Kingdom would be dead last.\" to now saying he\'s such an athlete and how you were \"very\" impressed with him after watching all of the contenders\' preps before the Derby.  I mean I missed on AK completely too but I can\'t imagine you thought so highly of his abilities before the Derby and still would\'ve ranked him last based solely on no dirt in his bloodlines.  

Really not trying to pile on but I\'m having a hard time reconciling your pre and post Derby positions on AK.

[mjellish]

This is getting beaten to death.  So this is my last post on the \"Athleticism\" of Animal Kingdom.  So let me just say this.

I\'ve watched all his races multiple times, including the ones you just posted to links to.  I don\'t see what you are seeing.  I see a big, rangy colt ease out and make a sustained run.  I see a horse that can run all day.  I do not see a turn of foot, which to me means making a sudden spurt to seize control of a race and then sustaining it.  I do not see a middle move, which to me is usually making an extended move into the pace, preferably before the front runners are tiring, and then also sustaining that move.  What I see is a colt that continues to run at a sustained pace longer than some of his competition.  That\'s not athleticism to me.  That\'s stamina, sustained pace.  

I would also mention that you are citing races by this colt on synthetic and grass surfaces.  And even if I did see what you saw, I would still be skeptical of his ability to do it on dirt.  

I\'m not trying to convince anyone.  Just stating an opinion.  And since I\'ve watched all the same races over and over again and come to my conclusion, there is little chance of that opinion changing until AK proves me wrong on a dirt track.  Maybe he will.  But it\'s not worth debating any further.

If anyone likes him to win the Preakness and the Triple Crown then I say bet him with gusto.  I\'m not trying to knock the colt.  He\'s a nice colt.  He\'s got a lot of talent.  He can run all day.  He relaxes well and he\'s got 3 wins and 2 seconds from 5 races.  He\'s won $1.7 Million.  He deserved to win the Kentucky Derby.  He didn\'t luck into anything.  

But he\'s not an althletic runner to my eye.

[sekrah]

Pony,

My toss of AK was 100% purely turf to dirt play.  His pattern was gorgeous, and probably the best of everyone in the field as a matter of a fact.  I couldn\'t wrap my head around the 9 pt TG deficit from Turf to Dirt on the sire offspring and the 100% turf-loaded dam side.

I was visually impressed of all his races when I was watched them.

[MonmouthGuy]

In other words even when you were hopelessly wrong, you were right.

[sekrah]

Correct.   I couldn\'t have been more wrong.

[Donut]

period point blank this horse is a gorilla. and built like one too.one of the ways i look for good horses is find excuses in their pp\'s. they have to be good excuses though. this horse has them all. he\'s never done anything wrong and to say his spiral move wasn\'t athletic is like saying zenyatta\'s move in the 09 breeders cup wasn\'t either because thats what it resembled.he\'s athletic as sh**.
now let\'s try to beat him.. mr. browns theory of him bouncing in THIS race is absured. again i said THIS race.

motion should\'ve put a work into this horse...this horse has been called lazy in the past. he won\'t lose this race because of a bounce..he can loose this race by not having the timing right to chase down hot fractions.

i will consult w a couple of trainer friends at fair hill to get their thoughts on not having a work.

[number5858]

You still have to look at the race like you would read an opponent\'s hand in poker. There are always ranges of possibilities. AK could bounce (certain % likelihood of that), could pair up his derby top (certain % chance of that), he could move forward (% chance of that), it could rain, he could stumble at the start, the jockey could drop the whip, etc. You have to come up with your estimates for those %s and wager accordingly. Barring bad weather and bad racing luck, I think he has a decent chance to pair up, small chance for a new top, and largest chance to bounce or not like the PIM dirt. The bore out concerns me, but I think he is very likely to hit the board or make the super, so will definitely be using him. If he doesn\'t win, then the payoffs go up. MMM also had a very good derby. He has similar chances to move up or pair up in my mind, so I will definitely be using him. Given the odds and the bo, I prefer MMM on top. Not sure about the new shooters until I see the sheets. Looking forward to the race for sure.

[moosepalm]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> In other words even when you were hopelessly
> wrong, you were right.


I think you have the makings of a C & W song, in that notion.

Seems like there\'s been a lot of that going \'round.

[Donut]

Think mmm is a hanger at these distances and class type we\'re in.not a win candidate for me here.
Couldn\'t pass to honor at 2 and nehro wanted to give up 2nd place. Only beat santiva being ontop of a slow pace. Board play but not a winner.

[Donut]

He could win but the field would have to fall apart and ak dosent fire on time