Sekrah's Preakness

[sekrah]

1 Astrology - Too many excuses and they aren\'t good ones.   Might move forward, but doesn\'t feel like \"The Big One\".

2 Norman Asbjornson - Done developing and too slow.  One of the few easy tosses.

3 King Congie - Gotta like that he\'s never moved backwards, and may even move forward again, but like Astrology, it doesn\'t feel like a big move.

4 Flashpoint - Distance pedigree problems, but the Fla Derby performance was a logical reaction to the neg 2.  Just moving back to a 2 and getting a rail trip means I can\'t leave this one off my tickets.

5 Shackleford - Had everything his own way in the Derby and couldn\'t get it done.  A new top here on 2 weeks rest?  No thanks.  I\'m leaving him off.

6 Sway Away - IMO, the most dangerous looking pattern of the horses still a couple points too slow.  Legit excuses last two (gate problems, poor jockey rides).  Gomez switch a huge positive.  One of my keys.

7 Midnight Interlude - I know Baffert has pulled these out of his hat before, but I can\'t find an excuse for this one.  He may run better here, but not good enough.

8 Dance City - One of the others ready to pop, I can\'t leave him off my tickets.

9 Mucho Macho Man - Fast enough to win, always runs hard AND eligible to move forward.  Major contender

10 Dialed In - Toss.  :-D.

11 Animal Kingdom - Can\'t key, likely 1st dirt regress.  Pimlico is different than Churchill and this one may figure to lose some ground.  Can\'t toss him from exotics completely either

12 Isn\'t He Perfect - Too Slow, Easy toss.

13 Concealed Identity - Perplexing local horse that hasn\'t gotten much buzz.  I think if he drew better, I\'d take a shot at the exotics, but not from this post.

14 Mr. Commons - Ready to pop, but not from that post position.  Pass.


J/k on Dialed In.  I\'m going to use Dialed In in exotics, just because the pace is going to be much sharper here and he will pick off alot of horses in the stretch.


KEYS - Sway Away & Mucho Macho Man

Underneath (and lightly reversed) - Flashpoint, Dance City, Animal Kingdom, Dialed In.

[P-Dub]

Sekrah,

Nice analysis.

I completely agree with your 2 keys. Sway Away has legitimate excuse for the slightly off race, nice pattern and can definitely run a number that takes this. MMM has forged ahead in every start this year.  On number power a must use.

AK has never backed up, and even with a regression he can run a number good enough to be a serious threat. As MJ has noted, he apparently is thriving and looks none the worse for wear. The TG stats are a bit troubling for horses that have made the syn/dirt move running a top, but not all horses regress and X out so he is a use underneath.  He\'s the classic tough to key, tough to toss horse.

I\'m not as high on Dialed In, I think on short rest he is questionable to get back to a number that contends, and being 1st/2nd choice I think you have to try and beat him.  If using a well bet horse I think AK has a better chance to run big than DI.

Dance City never gone backwards, nice spacing, a move forward puts him right in the mix.

Flashpoint...hard to get past that huge number 2 back, understandably bounced, lightly raced. The number was around 1 turn, but at the expected price hard to not use a bit. But wouldn\'t be surprised to see him up the track. Tough call but a use at a big price.

Concealed Identity wouldn\'t be the first local horse to fire at a price in the Preakness. Has won twice over the track, 2 races back was a big jump, 2 pt regression in last.  On short rest not likely to get back to that number, but at a big price I would have to think about a light use with the keys

My play is similar to yours Sekrah.  only difference is tossing DI, including CI a bit, and my win bet probably Sway Away if the price stays close to where it is. Will use DC, FP, AK, CI underneath.......Sway Away and MMM on top. Will key SA and MMM in the tri with the other 4 mentioned.

Great analysis by so many on this board, really enjoyed reading the many points of view on this race. So many different opinions, good luck to all who dive in.

[drbillym]

Nice job, but I don\'t think Shackelford really had things his way, IF the track was cuppy and tiring, as mentioned by Haskins and Baffert.  Shack held on pretty well, should get a better surface today, and will definitely be more fit.  And how can you toss Dialed In, who finished his last half as fast as Seattle Slew did in his Derby?  But like PDub said, this has been a great board and exchange of ideas.  While many of the published handicappers have annointed AK the next great horse, folks on this board are looking elsewhere.I think it is wide open, just like the Derby.

[number5858]

For me, the Preakness is going to be a bet a little to win a lot race. I am not going to wager heavy.  I think Sekrah’s analysis is very good. I will use his play as a saver in the exactas. My play is going to be all about going for a score at a cheap price. To be successful, I have to get one of my price horses home in a slot other than the 4 slot. My play is risky and has low probability of success, but will reward handsomely if I am somehow right. My play is constructed around two ideas. One is that Zito is a crafty trainer and Dialed In’s connections have a major incentive in the $5.5 million bonus, perhaps even enough to point the horse at this race all along, and we all know that compensation drives behavior. Two is that this race sets up for off the pace, so I will be using the off the pace horses.  I will be using two horses no one else will like in the 13 and 14, but who I believe will be overlaid because of their posts. Posts are less of a problem with their running style. note: if Midnight Interlude is 20/1 or more, I will include him in tier 3. Can\'t ignore Baffert in these big races, but I need a price. Don\'t think I will get it.

Tier 1 – Dialed In, Dance City
Tier 2 – MMM, Animal Kingdom
Tier 3 – Flashpoint, Concealed Identity, Mr. Commons (can’t ignore Shireffs as a trainer)
.10 Super  2+4+7+7, 4+2+7+7, 7+2+7+4 = $12 * 3 = $36

[plasticman]

Good Analysis Sek, welcome back from retirement! ;-)

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

Nice work! I don\'t always agree with you, but you may end up cashing today.

Just wanted to make a point regarding Flashpoint and Dance City. IMO, if FP runs anywhere near his top, not sure how DC can track, try to move on him, and still be on the board. We\'ll see.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[drbillym]

If Dialed In gets third, I get it all.  Thought I was dead first when he showed up washed out, then when he was in a speed duel.  That Churchill track was definitely cuppy for the Derby.  Shack was more fit today,had a better surface, and his long stride kept him going.