ROTW

[shanahan]

for me, it\'s a simple box of Hamazing Destiny and Jackson Bend.  I don\'t see the Asmussen horse coming back to the big figs...quite frankly, I\'d like to see old DWL win the damn thing, and the pattern of 3rd back is looking tall.  Don\'t follow the anlysis at all on Jackson Bend as his 4YO campaign is kicking ass...what am I missing?

[alm]

Couldn\'t agree more about the analysis, which probably means we are both going to regret this.  Let me go a little deeper...two horses in this race FINALLY have gotten a sprint distance they want to run and I mean Jackson Bend and Regal Ransom.  JB gets shortened up and runs the race of his life.  I\'m not saying RR will do the same, but he\'s training lights out and I can\'t leave him off the ticket.

I also can\'t leave Sydney\'s Candy off.  I\'m sorry but he does not appear to be one of the slowest here because he hasn\'t been pointed to this type of race yet.  His last race strikes me as a prep for this and Pletcher is serious...or JV would not have been switched off Aikenite.

The TG analysis makes a bigger deal of Aikenite than I can see...in his last race he got dusted by Jackson Bend (if it was a hidden good effort for Aikenite, what does that make the race JB ran?) and in the race before that he was beaten clear lengths by Caixia Electronica, who is now a nice Starter Allowance horse.  Excuse me.

I will let horses like Goldigger, Jersey, Escrow and Rule beat me.  It\'s not that they can\'t win in NY, some have.  But while their numbers are OK the level of competition they generally face is weaker than this bunch.

I\'m betting this horizontally in the Grand Slam with a small position.  In this race I am taking JB, SC and RR.

[Silver Charm]

JB has the rail and a solid even pattern this year (tossing the turf)! Has had foot problems and was a small 3YO who developed early at 2.

Should get the trip! In fine form....Call.

[SoCalMan2]

Maybe I am just a square, but I agree with the Company\'s ROTW Analysis.  The Asmussen horse ran a much bigger fig than anybody in this race ever did and he did it as a 3 yo (which means to me that as a 4 yo he should be even better).  His last was a dead rail toss -- just put a thumb over that figure (at least if you have printed out sheets).  He is now third race back as a 4 yo.  His first race back as a 4yo was pretty good and I would expect him to at least return to his 3 yo peak. I am guessing his odds will stay lofty since so many (even on this board with these figure) seem dismissive. He looks to me like what you always want to find -- a concealed superior horse.  Jackson Bend looks to me like a reaction machine.  It doesn\'t seem like that horse has ever put two good efforts together.  Can he repeat, maybe, but at 5-2, you need him to do it a lot.  Plus, he could repeat and still end up getting beaten by the Asmussen horse anyway. Sure, anything can happen, but you don\'t have to be right a lot for a horse like that Asmussen horse to be a good bet.

[miff]

RBN had a 6 month break between his neg 3.5 and his next start, then 80 more days off. If thats not a sign of trouble,don\'t know what is,dead rail in last, a throw in stab at best.Ugly draws for both Jackson Bend and Sydneys Candy out of the chute.

Tough dirt races today esp when looking at Wine Police stagger home yesterday with a few others in 1.11.45. NYRA track super Kozak must have smelled rain after the 2nd race or the NYRA water bill is too high!

Also,not a remote chance Sydneys Candy\'s is 7th slowest to the quarter as indicated by Race Shapes.


Mike

[alm]

I think you make a good point about RBN...it\'s possible he is in a position to surprise...if his physical problems were insurmountable, chances are Asmussen would not waste him in this race.  

As for Jackson I think you need to look more closely...he\'s been overrated in the minds of his connections for a long time.  He\'s so game they kept him running at distances that are outside of his sweet spot.  He may not repeat his last effort, but I can\'t bet against his doing that...no matter the odds...my sweet spot is horizontal betting and I need winners, even at short odds.  

The great thing about this business is we all get to find out in not too many hours.

[miff]

Really have to wonder what the dirt track will be like. First 6 races on grass, last 6 on dirt and with the threat of rain,take a  guess!


Mike

[Wild Again]

The ROTW is to borrow a term from TGJB a chaotic race; no one has a strong forward moving pattern and you have 5 or 6 horses capable of winning based on previous tops.

You are confronted by a classic odds play.

The problem is you are not being compensated with long enough odds for the risk of wagering.

The horses most likely to run well in order of preference; Sidney\'s Candy,Jersey Town, and Jackson Bend.

Jackson Bend is unplayable at ML.

Sidney\'s Candy will get heavy support because of Pletcher and Velazquez and will probably be 7-2 at best resulting in an easy decision.

Bet Jersey Town at 7-1 or better.

Thanks

Wild Again

[Silver Charm]

I dont disagree with this assessment on Jackson Bend at the ML> I did select the runner last evening not knowing what the ML was and figured it would be around 4-1 which is where the horse is now at 14 MTP. Sydneys Candy at 2-1 is about as expected. This was a bad ML. The price is right for Jackson Bend!!

[alm]

As I said in an earlier post, the great thing is we get to confirm our ideas when they run and Jackson Bend confirmed what we thought.  Nice horse, finally doing what he can do best...just beware if an idiot egotist decides to try to stretch him out again.