TGJB Wrote:
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> ...but I can\'t let this go by. To those who
> actually care about the accuracy of figures (and
> how they are made) it\'s important.
>
> Friedman posted on the Rag board about horses
> running better at one turn routes than around two
> turns, giving possible explanations. He missed the
> most obvious one-- they have a problem with their
> figures. As I point out in Changing Track Speeds
> (Archives here), they are the only figure maker
> who doesn\'t split one and two turn races when
> doing the day.
>
> When the two have different variants, usually
> (though not always) you have to take off from the
> two turn races. If you do not, you either will
> have them too slow, or the one turn races too
> fast. Ragozin\'s dogma results in a statement in
> his book (co-written by Friedman) that if he takes
> 1/4 point off a sprint early in the day he has to
> take 1/4 point off a mile and a quarter race
> later-- the single most ridiculous statement ever
> made by a figure maker. The net result is that you
> will see lots of horses on Ragozin figures who run
> a lot better at one turn routes than around two
> turns. While there are certainly individual cases
> where it is true, the large number of them on
> Ragozin has nothing at all to do with any lack of
> ability to handle two turns.
This may not go to the issue, but I always thought that horses could run faster on a straightaway than they could on a turn. For example, all things being equal, I would expect a straight 6f to be faster (raw time basis) than 6f with a bend. Similarly, I always thought the Charles Town 6.5 and 7 furlong times seemed so slow (raw time basis) because they had two turns in such a short period of time instead of one turn like most non-bullring tracks. However, I would expect that to be a variable that you guys adjusted for (like you do for ground, weight, run up, wind, banking, whatever else). That is why I sort of ignore raw times and rely on what you guys come up with. Am I off in right field?
Separately, there was a time when this could be solved (there was a control). For a long time, Laurel had a strange dog leg chute (they would run 7 furlong races out of the normal chute and then run one mile races (and ever so occasionally 1 1/16 miles races) out of the dog leg chute). There was a period when they were running 1 1/16 miles races with two different configurations...sometimes one turn and sometimes two turns....it was a weird situation and only lasted for a brief period. Unfortunately, I do not remember what the comparable raw times were back then -- but I think everybody just assumed that the same horses would go slower (raw time basis) on the two turn configuration than the one turn configuration (all other things being equal). Anybody remember what year they got rid of the dog leg?
Apologies if I have completely missed the boat here. I dont look at the Ragozin board, so I have no idea what the discussion is over there.
