Been Waiting -- P-Dub Kind of Said It

[TGAB]

P-Dub, I appreciated your post in the Perfect Shirl string, specifically the comments copied below.  

\"As for the analysis, I think JB does a tremendous job. He has to look at a couple hundred horses, and write a race analysis in a limited amount of time. As Rick stated, that isn\'t an easy thing to do.

IMO, the race by race analysis is a starting point. It isn\'t meant to tell you exactly how to bet each race. Some races he says the favorites are bad, and there is opportunity. Maybe he doesn\'t identify the horse that pulls the upset, but he at least alerts you to the chance. Take this race for example, he stated that the Euros will be well bet and that none of them have to be used. You found a horse with a big number, has a few flaws, but at the price was worth a shot. You were rewarded.

The Juvenile Turf was labeled a \"tricky race\". To me that means its a bit chaotic and there is a chance at a price. JB didn\'t give a strong push to any particular horse, he liked a few, but nothing stood out. I played an exacta keying Wrote, I liked the addition of Lasix to a forward moving pattern. I played that horse with 4 others including the place horse Excaper in exactas. Excaper wasn\'t mentioned in the analysis, but his race 2 back was pretty good, his last on Poly I excused. At 30/1 he made the exacta very nice. The exacta paid $964 for a deuce. JB may not have pointed me towards either horse in his analysis, but his comments alerted me to a potentially nice priced opportunity. I\'ve read enough Thorographs to think that I can find a winner without anyone\'s help.

JB writes the analysis without the benefit of a tote board. The analysis is a guide, but the rest is up to the player. Making your own decisions on horses, and looking at the board to get fair value, is what the game is about. The analysis isn\'t meant to hold your hand up to the window, it is there to guide you as you make the ultimate decision on whether or not to place a wager.\"

...

P-Dub


For 15 years we\'ve been writing ROTWs, using them as marketing tool to educate potential and regular players alike as to the benefits of using Thoro-Graph data.

Now of course we realize the value of Thoro-Graph data lays in the uncovering opportunities that conventional handicapping methods or information fail to distinguish. But the proof is in the pudding which is why results are important.

But I think P-Dub points above as regards JB\'s comments, how to intepret and use them effectively also holds for ROTWs. And I\'m glad someone EXPLICITLY has stated that the value of the information often, isn\'t so black and white, cut and dry,and a bunch of other aphorisms. Lots of time I feel, that although I didn\'t hit the race, betting-wise there was still a lot of valuable information conveyed--maybe identifying bad favorites, identifying bad patterns, or conversely good patterns--which may become relevant and perhaps rewarding somewhere down the line.

While we\'re non-apologetically mercenary, capitalistic--nonetheless P-Dub, you get it. And I know lots of others out there get it as well, but it\'s good to know that the value of our effort is not necessarily measured by every t that\'s crossed, bet that\'s cashed. (Although obviously that\'s vitally important as well.)

So, thanks.

[P-Dub]

Alan,

You are certainly welcome.  I\'m sure there are many in the TG community that look at the analysis the same way as I described. The analysis is similar to Cliff Notes. You can get a general sense of the story line, but you have to read the entire book to get the full meaning.

If we all look at the same data, and all come up with the same horses in every race we look at, then there would be few horses worth betting. We collectively would drive the price down. Additionally, it would make for a pretty boring game.  One of the fascinating things about Breeders\' Cup time, or any big race for that matter, is the different opinions people have while looking at the same data.

The analysis in the BC packages and ROTW have helped me grow as a TG user. I learn things virtually every time I read them.  I have had winning BCs for the past several years, to varying degrees, because the lessons learned in previous BCs and ROTW have helped me to look at numbers and patterns in a way that I previously was uninformed.

I appreciate the word of thanks, but that goes both ways.  Thank you to JB, Alan, and the entire TG staff for consistently putting out not only a tremendous product, but for giving us a place to exchange ideas freely and virtually uncensored. I not only learn from the analysis put forth by JB and yourself, but from the many intelligent and thoughtful people in the TG community that know a heck of a lot more about racing than I do.