Pletcher does an about face with Verrazano

[mjellish]

Just to be clear,

I don\'t want to accuse anyone of anything and I\'m not trying to.  And this may sound harsh, but I also don\'t need to be the police of the sport.  What I do need to do, as a player, is have respect for my money.  And it is therefore important for me to know that if I bet on a race at CD with a TAP entry in it, TAP doesn\'t usually do as well at CD as some other tracks.  I don\'t need to know why.  I just need to know that.

Much like I need to know when that when TAP starts getting numbers down in Florida, if I catch on quick I can go along for that ride.  And I don\'t need to know why.  Only that it is.

Back in the day I used to cut out the PP of every winner and paste them into a notebook and file them alphabetically by trainer.  I also used to do the same with any horse that ran much better than they should have even if they didn\'t win.  And there were patterns to what some of these guys and gals did.  Some as basic as never trying with 1st time starters but cranking up for 2nd out, or 2 sprints and then a route, or a move up in class 3rd off a layoff, etc.  Whatever.  Some not so obvious.  Sometimes the only clue was the tote.

The point I am trying to make is that we don\'t need to know the why.  Only the what.  And we need to make sure we get on or off accordingly.  And we need to pay attention and notice when something changes.

This is exactly why I started this string.  What TAP is saying he is going to do with Verrazano is different than what he has said and done with just about EVERY other 3 yr old derby trail colt he has had in the past 10 years.  And I wonder why?  

What Jim said may have some merit.  Maybe it\'s as simple as a bad surface at PMM.  Maybe he hasn\'t been doing anything weird with this colt anyway and he finally gets that training over Churchill is important.  Maybe he knows if he has been doing something weird he can\'t do it at Churchill anyway so he may as well ship early.  Or maybe he has a girlfriend in Louisville and he just wants to be there.

In any case, it means SOMETHING because it is different and these guys don\'t make a change for no reason.

The good news for us, as players, is that we will get to watch this one train at Churchill for a few weeks where TAP usually doesn\'t get numbers.  So whether he\'s meds off or not, we won\'t have to guess about his condition.  We\'ll probably see it in his training.

[sighthound]

Or it could be Coolmore told TAP not to screw up the next truly big stallion possibility, and is dictating terms.

[sighthound]

Pletcher only has about 6 stalls at Keeneland this meet.

Churchill has always been a very different track than any other ... god, try and walk it from the backstretch to the front and your legs will die, used to be deep, lots of clay. Haven\'t talked to anyone over there about how it is this year, don\'t know.

Anyway, point is, horses used to running over Florida have a deep time of it when they get to CD, it\'s so different.  And when they harden it off it rattles them hard.

Don\'t forget with Kee they just had the 2-year-old training sale last night - and they were all running 10\'s the track was so firm.

[TreadHead]

Come on now, you aren\'t accusing them of souping up the track to show impressive times that will drive higher sales prices, are you?  

[sighthound]

Ah, I remember when Keeneland sniffed down their nose, and said, \"We\'ll never have a 2-yr-old training sale, it\'s not the right thing for spring babies just 18-months old\".

[Fairmount1]

I can\'t believe I am about to write this.

Many times in life when people are successful they believe deeply in their methods and their ways based on whatever reasons lead them to that success.  Without a doubt, TAP has been successful in this business with arguably (as he has one victory) the one exception being the Derby.

Highly successful people recognize their failures at some point and despite their stubborn (Structured, otherwise successful, regimented) methods, decide to do that fearful thing:  Change.  Maybe Pletcher has decided that with this high caliber horse after failures with Gemologist, Esky (injured), Uncle Mo (liver), Dunkirk, countless others, etc etc etc in the Derby that he should try a new method that could only be favorable to the horse.  

On the other hand, maybe, he believes in the horse so much that he truly believes that he wants to give this horse Every Opportunity at becoming used to the track and like sighthound suggested possibly at the direction of the owners.  TAP doesn\'t strike me as being told how to handle his Derby horse though....

It certainly is intriguing and a complete 180.  One of my buddies always said for years, as long as his horses come straight from PMM to the Derby, he was not betting them.  I\'ll be curious his thoughts on this.

[sighthound]

TAP comes out of the D Wayne Lukas school of training, and he had 4 Derby winners.  One thing Lukas trainees are, are professional and disciplined.  As you say, pulling the horse away from Florida could be response to previous lack of success.  If so, kudos to TAP

[SoCalMan2]

Apologies for being a dunderhead here.  

Could some of the issue here be surface? I can easily see how you would use different \"medicines\" for different surfaces.  For example, different medicines can help in different ways. One way to help is that for horses that tire badly, the medicine may make them not tire as badly.  In dirt races, in general, horses tire way more than they tire on synthetic.  If the particular medicine that is being caught by kentucky authorities is the type of medicine that stops horses from tiring...then the absence of that one particular medicine could be the answer for the difference in behavior between poly and dirt. It is not as important a drug on poly as it is on dirt.

If his keeneland turf to CD turf is also different.....what is the sample-size you are using for that?  is it possible the sample size for turf to turf is too small to reach any conclusions?

[richiebee]

Sighthound:

Not only does Coolmore want TAP to win the Derby with Verrazano, they realize that
much of the attention of the racing world is focused on Louisville and Lexington
for the next month or so. If Verrazano trains up a storm and really looks the part
for the next few weeks, the colt gets a lot of in the flesh exposure (which costs
Coolmore nothing) to the industry.

Now if Aidan O\'Brien shipped his Derby hopeful, Lines of Battle, to Kentucky for a
month of acclimation, well, that would be a story.

More most excellent observations from our man on the ground, James Covello, who
reports on track conditions in Florida as being a possible reason for Verrazano\'s
move. Hopefully, those who sniped at Jim during last year\'s Derby season have had
their say and we can continue to benefit from Jim\'s observations. Being tethered
to a desk here in Manhattan, and not having been to a live Derby since 1983, I
really appreciate Jim\'s input...

...not to mention, with apologies to the creators of the Dodd Frank Act, that
Covel\'s got some skin in the game down in Hot Springs this weekend. Last I looked,
Falling Sky already had enough prep points to earn the Covel crew a spot in the
owner\'s enclosure at Louisville. Will be interesting to see if Jim\'s Derby fever
is ratcheted down by a drink of \"coming back in three weeks isn\'t good for my
colt\" Kool Aid after what I hope is a good run at Oaklawn. Best of luck, man.

Hey Vito, welcome, Frank D will find you a fake nose and some sunglasses, and you
can attend a TG seminar at the Spa without being spotted on the Raggie radar...

[covelj70]

Richiebee,

Thanks so much for the awesome message.  I am packing up the clan and heading down to Arkansas today actually.

Remember 6 years ago when you were making fun of me for bringing my then new born in a stroller into Monmouth to make a derby futures bet? Well, that little degenerate has made some progress and he will be the youngest kid in the paddock in hot rings on Saturday with a fedora!

I am excited for Sat down there. Never been to Hot Springs but have heard great things.

We have the half brother to archx3 going in the undercard stakes as well. I hope likes that track as much as his brother did.

Either way, i will on the grounds at Churchill on Derby week as we have Swift Waarior in the Woodford Reserve so like it or not, you will be getting my blithering dribble during my favorite week of the year..

[FrankD.]

Jim,

If only your son had a twin? Then you could have 2 Utes in the paddock with fedora\'s! A Joe Pesci sequel that Richiebee could have a ball with.

Nothing like a race track education ala Jimbo who used to take little Jimmy to the park; so thought his wife. She never knew it was Monmouth Park and after meeting Miff at an early age he staring questioning his teacher about the A,B,C\'s.

Good luck this weeeknd,

Frank D.

[covelj70]

Omg, this is great

I have 3 kids that will all be wearing fedoras in the paddock, only 1 was in a stroller as a newborn at MP making futures bets though !

Thanks so much again

[jimbo66]

Frank d,

Amazing that the early education didn\'t \"take\". Not sure this game has appeal to the younger generation these days

Although in my sons case it could be genetics. I now know when u cross breed a type \"a\" heavy gambler, with a communist from Poland, the communist genes are stronger....  

Jim