DoJ vs Orb vs Lucky - figure differences

[phil23]

I noticed this last week after seeing Frac Daddy\'s fig but wanted to wait till seeing the exact figs for each horse.

Realizing that there will be some minor differences in TG ground loss vs TRAKUS ground loss as has been discussed before, even given that, it seems to me that the difference between DoJ\'s fig and Orb\'s (and even more importantly ITMLDY\'s) are outside the range of what we\'d call a minor difference.

Here\'s the work:

-DoJ ran her 9f in 1:48.97. Orb ran his is 1:50.87. At 6Lengths/Sec that is 11.4 lengths difference, or 6.33 TG points.

-DoJ ran (according to Trakus) 6021 feet. Orb ran 6035 feet. At approx 8.4Lenths/foot that is approx 2.86 lengths further that Orb travelled, which equals approximately 1.59 TG points

-They both carried the same weight.


So we have a net difference of (6.33-1.59) = 4.74. So Orb\'s fig should be 4.75 TG points slower than DoJ\'s. But as we can see from the sheets, the difference between the two figures is quite a bit greater than that.

NEXT: It\'smyluckyday:

He was 2.75 lengths (1.53 TG points) behind Orb and ran 7 feet or 0.83 lengths (0.46 TG points) shorter than Orb. For a net difference of 1.99.  So ITMLDY should be 2.00 TG points slower than Orb.  But as we can see from the sheets, it is again a fair bit different than that.

If it was just DoJ vs Orb I don\'t think it would make too big a difference as regardless of Orb\'s fig, it\'s a giant top and we\'d all expect him to bounce, so no harm no foul.

BUT...Itsmyluckyday\'s fig is hugely important. He goes from an OFF race to a PAIR. A giant difference, fig wise AND perhaps even more importantly, pattern wise.

Jerry said in his first post about DoJ\'s monster fig that \"you couldn\'t even break the race out in good conscience\". So I guess my question is, given that the Oaks was 2 hours before the Derby, did you use even somewhat of a different variant between the two races? If not, it seems that the relationship between the two is off.

If you did use a different variant then no problems for the INTER race relationship. You guys are the experts and I\'m perfectly happy to go with that.

But if both races use the same variant it seems like something is a bit off.

And even if the Oaks/Derby was different variant wise, the relationship between ORB and LUCKY in the same race is (at least according to Trakus ground loss) off by a full point, which does seem like a lot.

In looking at the TG ground for them both, it has Orb running 3wides further, whereas, again by Trakus, Orb ran only 7feet further.

So apologies for being so anal retentive about all this and I realize that Trakus ain\'t the end all and be all last word, but specifically for LUCKY, it seems like this is a pretty important possible discrepancy.

[TGJB]

Briefly-- yes, there was a slight difference in track speed we used for the two races(1 1/2 points is slight, all the routes on the day fell into that range), and a slight difference in wind. Re the internal Fla Derby stuff I\'ll take a look at it only if you look at the ground we have on the sheets (keeping in mind they are rounded off) and the replay and tell me they are wrong. The Trakus stuff is irrelevant. I have nothing against those guys but we\'ve been through this before. And the Fla Derby ground wasn\'t complicated, I would be surprised if we got it wrong.

I gotta tell you, I held that day and looked at it from all angles for 3 days, not wanting to give out that figure.

[phil23]

JB - Thanks for the reply. Like I said I am more than happy to go with you guys re-different variant (and wind too) on the Inter race stuff. So all good there.

I just watched the race a few times and have to say I think you guys got it right and Trakus got it wrong. At best ITMLDY ran 2wides shorter, not 3. But Orb is outside him at least 1.5wide on 1st half of 1st turn and 1wide on 2nd half of first turn and then another 1wide on full 2nd turn.

Orb surely travels a bare minimum of 2wides (lengths) further and could easily be the 3 you have. Certainly not the less than 1 length that Trakus has.

Again, was not trying to nit pic. Just trying to work through the figs and come up with best possible picture for the Derby.

Thanks again.

[TGJB]

Again, keep in mind the w\'s you see are rounded off. We haven\'t got room for 2.5w.