With Jerry kindly posting the post Derby sheets, we\'ve already seen most of the Preakness field #s, so I\'m not going to worry about last race #s on 2 horses whose pre-last race sheets I\'ve already seen & I\'m already tossing on class.
The only thing I\'ll do is if it looks like it\'s going to be wet, I\'ll back down on my increments. I\'m at a little disadvantage because I\'m going to be away all week through next Sunday with people who don\'t play the game, and the latest I can phone my bets in is Saturday morning (When I don\'t reply it\'s because I\'m not going to have a computer all week once I hit the airport). I\'m going to use the same philosophy that I used in the Derby-2 weeks before the Derby I told my best friend \"If I mention any other horse but Orb winning the Derby, smack me\" Well, I feel the same way about the Preakness & I\'ll forgive Itsmyluckyday for not handling the track. So I\'m going to approach it the same as the Derby, with the only difference that since I\'ve lost the value, I won\'t put the Mega-win-bet(for me, some of you would consider it pocket change) in I put in the Derby & just shoot for the exacta & tri.
Yesterday I approached the Peter Pan with one philosophy-The Illinois Derby was the biggest collection of garbage seen in a graded stake in a long time, and the Bluegrass wasn\'t far behind. The 1st thing I did was throw out the Ill. Derby & Bluegrass horses & I was able to hit the tri by keying FC over SV,GGTB & I. I\'ll take that theory again & toss Departing-that should create some value. I also believe that the west coast horses are nothing to write home about, so out go the 2 GCs. Value is climbing with the Beyer enthusiasts taking the same view of Goldencents that I\'m taking on IMLD. Out go V & TF because I think V is over the top & TF is nothing.
So I\'m left with Orb on top of Itsmyluckyday, Will Take Charge, Oxbow, & Mylute. I\'ll put my main exacta on Orb/Itsmyluckyday & save with the rest. The only reverse will be an IMLD/Orb, just in case IMLD runs his best, which makes the race a lot closer-similar to the Derby seminar where I basically agreed with most of what Jerry thought, only that I had I Orb as a few times more likely to win than IMLD (I put 2 win bets on the Derby, with Orb 5x as much as IMLD). I\'ll be playing Tri\'s with IMLD 2nd & 3rd with the others left & hope I\'m right. In terms of betting units, here are my plays:
Exactas: 10 Or/IMLD; 4 IMLD/Or; 2 Or/WTC,Ox,M
Trifectas 1 Or/IMLD/WTC,OX,M; 1 Or/WTC,Ox,M/IMLD
Total 26 units.
