TwinSpires Blogger doesn't believe in bounces

[TreadHead]

http://blog.twinspires.com/2013/05/the-baltimore-bounce.html

Interested to hear comments from regular users here.

[drbillym]

Very poorly written article.  Is TGJB the inventor of the Bounce theory?  If so, Simon should have used TG figures to address his hypothesis rahte than Beyer and Brisnet numbers.  
It seems to me that the term \"Bounce\" is improperly overused.  When reviewing the bounce pattern in the Introductory section, it is very clearly illustrated.  Those obvious patterns don\'t seem to come up that often.  And I don\'t see a reference to the time involved, so perhaps it is a good time for JB or others to expand on this.
And bouncing is not the same as moving backwards.  Jimbo66 laid 2-1 that Oxbow would move backwards in the Preakness, but I don\'t see how going from a 1-5-5 supported this projection.  
Look forward to JB and others clarifying the bounce theory.

[FrankD.]

Anyone who would use \"old racing form speed figures\" as a comparison for anything is a complete idiot. A roulette wheel is as good a barometer as those archaic meaningless figures.

When I was a kid there was an older Greek gentlemen who I noticed scribbling figures in his paper one day at a OTB parlor back in the 70\'s. I asked him what he was doing and he explained his speed rating numbers were the 2 highest numbers out of the horses last 3 races and he added the weight to them to achieve a figure. He ended up blowing 3 restaurants on the horses!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Boscar Obarra]

You\'re right Frank, but when you added the variant and divided by the weight, BINGO.

[Wrongly]

Frank

Every one has a \"better system\'!  Booked Saturday Aug. 3rd, even if we have to go around the corner, Carolina BBQ are on me!

[Dana666]

It\'s not rocket science. Orb had 5 weeks from the FLA derby to the Ky Derby, and then he\'s supposed to fire again 2 weeks later? He may have looked fine and even worked well, but one does not need the intellect of a Jerry Brown to figure they were asking a lot of the horse; two weeks turnaround throws him off his regular schedule completely. I don\'t think we will ever see another Triple Crown winner. Horses run so much faster now and they are so much more frail. Oxbow was very logical on many levels, t-g sheets and trip notes. That\'s all. The triple crown is archaic and should be changed or abandoned; it\'s like the way the current gov\'t views the constitution. Doesn\'t fit our world today--from another time and place entirely. It\'s absurd to put horses through something they have no chance of completing successfully. It\'s just who drops by the wayside as the races go on.

[Topcat]

TreadHead Wrote:
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> http://blog.twinspires.com/2013/05/the-baltimore-b
> ounce.html
>
> Interested to hear comments from regular users
> here.

Legitimate case can be made that Orb\'s KY Derby Beyer was higher than it should have been . . . just as the Orb Beyer out of the Florida Derby was lower . . . Beyers by and large aren\'t horrible, but they\'ve led many down the garden path, this classic season . . .

Bounces are a legitimate phenomenon, of course, though their effects can sometimes be ameliorated by top trainers providing animals proper spacing.   Then . . . you can have Sonny Hine marching into the Derby after winning the Blue Grass by ten . . . one of the all-time classic Earth-to-Saturn bounces of the modern era.

[wipitoga]

Pretty much the same argument in the years just before Secretariat ende the 25 year drought since Citation

[Dana666]

Honestly, it\'s completely different. I\'m referring to how fast horses run nowadays (re: sheets) and how much stress that puts on them. We\'ve had three year old fillies that would have dusted Secretariat (numbers wise)! You really think he could run a negative 8!? There is no comparison between the breed back then and now. Horses were far sturdier and ran far more often back in the early 70s. We\'re now going on 40 years, not 25. Today they simply can not put up with the stress of 3 testing races within 6 weeks or so. I think that\'s the major factor, even more than the breeding which has focused more on speed than stamina. The racing world in the 70s to now is so vastly changed.

[Ritis]

The 3 restaurants will be lost no matter who\'s figures anybody will use,
 better figures will last a little longer.