The Belmont!

[shanahan]

what say you?  Let\'s get the party started!  Anyone going to the charity event at Bar Americain Thursday?  If so, let me know.

I think it boils down to some serious breeding, and a new name is in the sunday headlines....ideas?

[Fairmount1]

Potential for 15 horses (and bonanza payoffs).  

Zero to negative one seems to be about the number that wins the Belmont excepting Point Given although figuring out who can run that number at the distance seems the most obvious and critical question.  Tread\'s effort within a noneffort is actually a useful thought for looking at the results of this race as many horses might not be able to run their enitre race at the demanding distance.  

If you watch all of Incognito\'s races you can see why they believe he has the ability to get the 1 1/2 mile distance, especially if you watch the gallop outs on his races.  I wish he was getting lasix.  

Derby 1-2-3 finishers and Preakness winner.  Do you view the Derby as a pace meltdown with the 3 top finishers just clunking up the lane after everyone else just had nothing left after 1:09 up front?  Seems to be a key question in how you bet this race.  What do you do with Oxbow--is he facing a speed duel on front end with Palice Malice, Freedom Child, Vyjack?  If you throwout Oxbow and Orb from the top spot, you are looking at huge horizontals and verticals I believe because of the 15 entrants.  This Belmont seems very exciting just because of the sheer number of entrants make it very \"Derby like.\"    

Pletcher going 5 deep potentially with the intrigue of a filly with a Zero on the page (even Rags to Riches didn\'t have that going in as I recall).  

Freedom Child will certainly be the \"wise guy\" horse in the race.  

My early stab at a morning line (although it seems the Belmont win odds last few years are similar to the Derby in that many of the longshots have much lower odds than expected).  Tear it to shreds with where it is way off.  Hopefully phil23 gives it a stamp of approval.  


1   Orb            2.50
2   Revolutionary            4.50
3   Oxbow            6.60
4   Freedom Child            8.00
5   Palice Malice            11.50
6   Overanalyze            12.30
7   Golden Soul            15.60
8   Unlimited Budget            19.00
9   Will Take Charge            21.20
10   Vyjack            24.00
11   Midnight Taboo            27.50
12   Incognito            32.30
13   Always in a Tiz            32.30
14   Giant Finish            39.00
15   Frac Daddy            49.00

[phil23]

120% on the nose. Looks very solid to me Fairmount. Have a few that I think might be higher or lower but that\'s just opinion. Takeout is bang on.

To me, if prices hold, the filly is the clear play and also for the price hard to pass up the Repole exacta imo w/Over. His good/bad pattern is certainly due for the good one, with rest. While the two TC winners are on 3rd in 5 weeks and REV, while pattern and rest great, price (and to some extent number power) are not.

Can only imagine the celebration in the winners circle if Repole takes this down.

Going to be a great week!

[big18741]

I make Golden Soul the likeliest to run his top or better at the distance.

Post draw in this size field is a big deal so I\'m hoping for something inside where he can save ground at least into the first turn.

In terms of pace with a few free running horses like Oxbow,Freedom Child and Palace Malice I think it\'ll be honest maybe quicker.If they go 1:12 and change and not your typical 49 and 1:14 crawl a closer can win this.