The Belmont by the Sheets (sort of)

[kekomi]

i\'m not that concerned with the freshness angle. horses that ran in both, and won either the derby or the preakness, or both, tend to do well in the belmont, even if they don\'t win. if it wasn\'t too much for mine that bird to come in 1, 2, and 3, it\'s just doesn\'t seem that important to me to be honest--after all, he was a tiny, scrawny little guy.

last year there was an article on bloodhorse that showed that the horses that have won the belmont, have been the ones that ran the flatest pace line in their respective belmonts--so that each quarter they ran was roughly the same as their quarters before and after.

after reading it, i joked that that meant union rags was a shoe-in because he only had one speed...so i guess the winner this year will be frac daddy =)

[kekomi]

oh, ok thanks

i don\'t doubt that he\'ll be the ML favorite, or that you guys know what your talking about regarding him being the post time favorite...

it just seems odd to me that all of the people calling him a talentless mule, who only won the derby due to a sloppy track and a pace melt done, that will never win another race, and who showed his true colors in the preakness, will lay money down on him...even those who think he\'s good horse often hedge by saying some horse or other that he beat in the derby actually ran the better race.

i guess it just seems like there is more forward momentum with freedom child (esp.), unlimited budget, and revolutionary among the betting public, than with orb (even with a sloppy track likely,it\'s his half brother who is getting all the hype, despite the fact that a sloppy track was supposedly key to his derby win).

i also was thinking that the filly/female jokey angle might get bet heavily...

well, if he goes off the favorite, the poor guy better win--or they\'ll show up at his stall with pitchforks and torches =/

[TGJB]

Kekomi-- where have you seen people bad mouthing Orb? I haven\'t.

[toppled]

I do find it interesting that a lot of people are touting Freedom Child on a wet track & seem to forget that Orb won the Derby on a wet track-against a much better field than Freedom Child beat.  At this point, on a wet track, Orb has shown more than Freedom Child.  I doubt Freedom Child ran a -2 (we\'ll find out soon enough) in the slop like Orb did.  
If it\'s sloppy I think Orb will be about 2/1, Freedom Child 7/2.  I was happy with 7/2 on Freedom Child in the Peter Pan against a weak field (The ML of 12/1 was ridiculous-Watchmaker picked him to win in his column, and I was all over him so he couldn\'t have been that hard to have) but 7/2 on Freedom Child in the Belmont is a huge underlay-especially after he bore out in the stretch & had virtually no gallop out in the Peter Pan.

[boston]

I will take some 20 to 1.  Offshore odds have both Rev and Orb 3 to 1.  Ox is 7/2.  These linemakers are rarely off by much.

[jimbo66]

Ox,

If they are offering 7-2 on Oxbow, they are \"off\" this time.  6-1 is more like it.  

Revolutionary also not going to be co-favored with Orb.  There will be a gap, even if only 1.5 points or so.  5-2 vs 4-1?

[boston]

I agree 7/2 seems low.  My point is betting on these big races sometimes don\'t always go as we think, and there is a better than 5% chance someone else will be favored over Orb.

[kekomi]

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