ROTW -- La Jolla Handicap

[TGAB]

The race of the week will be the La Jolla Handicap. It will be up shortly, 30 minutes or so.

[JoseOcon]

Thanks,

I am going to play whatever is your selection. I like to do my own selections, but I will try the ROTW.

Good luck to all!

[TGAB]

Lot of room to maneuver in this one. Good luck.

[FrankD.]

On a Saturday morning in August the last thing I would ever expect to be doing is expressing an opinion on a DelMar race!!!!

It\'s been a very quiet board for Spa time; it may have something to do with a very very BLAH meet so far. The Whitney was a great field last week but the Saturday race card left quite a bit to be desired.

Today is day 20, halfway through the meet and I\'ve been up a grand total of 3 times.I am completely swamped with work and just not that stimulated by the product for many of the reasons discussed in on going strings here the past few months.

Needless to say without the proper time to put into the daily Spa puzzle it has not been profitable for MOI so far. The positive side of that is I\'ve maybe wagered 20 % of what I would have normally. Today\'s card holds no great allure with a couple of short fields in the early pick 4 and with Wise Dan making the late pick 4 a pick 3. I\'m sure a couple of the early turf races will come off and it will be yielding with a possible upgrade to good by the end of the day. I tried to beat Wise Dan in this race last year with Corporate Jungle; no such efforts will be made this year.

So it\'s off to the left coast in a wide open race by the numbers for sure. Freakin Rocket\'s speed and Dice Flavor\'s price make this a bit interesting for me.
I don\'t share the negatives on Greeley Awesome; no I\'m never crazy about a stone cold closer in a turf race, the trip, the trip, the trip. If anyone on the green can work out a trip its Frenchy, he is sooooo much better on the turf than other surfaces.

In a race where there is little separation by the numbers, its a matter of who is going to break through? TGAB has referred to my theory here as tossing a bodily substance against the wall.
BUT:
Even the mediocre and sometimes the bad ones will run that break through race at some point during their 3 or 4 year old season. Triple 7\'s and only 3 points of development from 2 to 3 says to me, why not today!

So it\'s a 3 horse box and we will press the key button with Greeley on top and bottom of the other 2.

Good luck and I\'ll be taking a ride up later to see Wise Dan,

Frank D.

[FrankD.]

Just updated;
Good & Good
Race 5 off
Both rails @ 18 feet
11th on the inner turf

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Frank. Appreciate you posting some analysis; as usual, but will disagree with Greeley Awesome and point out what I perceive are serious negatives.

On the positive side the barn switch has done him a world of good ( as do many going to the fabulous Sadler) and he has blossomed since being shipped, but he is plenty up against it for three main reasons.

1)  Configuration.  As a deep closer \"Greely\" does not figure to relish the big rail.  This is one of the worst bets in racing.  With the rail up the pace is always slower and closers do not get the early pace they need.  Additionally, even out of chutes, more of the race is run on turns bringing additional ground loss into play.  \"Greeleys last two were both run off the hedge and featured very hot early splits making his efforts look better than they were.

2 Class.  This colt raced on the bottom Mdn 30K as a juvenile and has been tagged up repeatedly; hardly a recipe for graded stakes success as a sophomore.

3 Figures.  While using an integer based method on two turn grass races is dicey at best this colt has never run a race that is within ten lengths of what it will take today.

As I wrote I appreciate your posts but this selection seems a dart in the dark to me.  

To be fair I have not done much on this heat but I think if Mullins has Dry Summer fit enough he is clearly the best horse.  He has run the fastest race (on TG) by a pole, is a multiple stakes winner and has pedigree power (Vanlandingham).  Off a no show on dirt in a very tough spot he has been pointed here since spring and Talamo has been aboard for a string of works dating back to late May.  His new staus as a gelding is noteworthy as this one brought a big number at the sales while working in ten and change on his wrong lead as a ridgling.  He figures a stalking trip off the Canani colt and gets first run if, again he is fit enough?  Good luck.  bbb

[Bet Twice]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> 3 Figures.  While using an integer based method on
> two turn grass races is dicey at best this colt
> has never run a race that is within ten lengths of
> what it will take today.

I appreciate you sharing the additional analysis.  The quote above struck me as interesting - are you suggesting that using speed figures (TG or others) for two turn grass races is different than using on a one turn grass race or on the dirt?  Can you elaborate?

[Boscar Obarra]

integer based? as opposed to what?

[bellsbendboy]

My purpose in posting was in no way to take a shot at the analysis from the ubiquitous poster; nor to question any figures.  Although strictly a west coast player I did not handicap the race merely was aware of it because of the previous stake opening day.

While I suspect anyone who read my forecast probably did not bet the zero chance animal... he did go off at 7-2.

In the handicap two of the highweights both play at eight to one and run one two, so certainly a chaotic heat for cappers!

My point was not to question figures but to suggest that if players took the time to see HOW they were earned they would improve their game.  bbb

[Rich Curtis]

\"I think if Mullins has Dry Summer fit enough he is clearly the best horse. He has run the fastest race (on TG) by a pole,\"

Which number are you talking about?

[bellsbendboy]

Closing day last year in the stake.

[Rich Curtis]

That number was an 8.75. Fastest in the field by a pole? Every other horse in the race has a faster number.

[bellsbendboy]

Hi Rich,

I cannot tell if you are kidding me or not.

Do you really think that TG 6\'s and 7\'s earned without distinction by sophomores in mid year are faster than an eight run by a juvenile in September?

Not to mention running down a grade one winner, first time long, first time green  while giving weight!  bbb

[Rich Curtis]

OK, so when you make a post saying a horse \"has run the fastest race (on TG) by a pole,\" you mean after you have made a bunch of personal adjustments to the figure, adjustments for things like maturity and first grass and first long and quality of competition. I got it.

And by the way, Dry Summer didn\'t even have the fastest 2YO number in that field--pole or otherwise.