After watching the replay of the FOY five times. It is clear to me that Top Billing leaves that race as much the best prospect for the Kentucky Derby.
Considering that the KD is 3/16 of a mile longer than the 1+1/16 FOY and Top Billing was closing ground all the way down the stretch it looked, to my old eyes, that the lead pair would have certainly been caught long before a finish line set at 1+1/4. But some say one can\'t compare races at different distances surfaces, etc. and I say neither of the 1st two look to be ratable nor able to run off like a War Emblem.
I will say it was an incredible race neck and neck the entire way.
The shame is that Kentucky Derby qualifying points are awarded to horses that won\'t be competitive on the 1st Saturday in May. These horses (even though General A Rod has the magic Mr. Prospector in the sire line and Wildcat Red has the magic in the dam\'s line along with Personal Ensign) so ah duh why don\'t they give qualifying points for the Hutcheson?
What we saw Saturday was another rendition of Uncle Mo vs Hansen vs Verrazano, et al. Brilliant precocious milers who can stretch their early foot another 1/16 on a speed favoring track. As ajkreider pointed out the inside early speed bias was even more pronounced at the Fairgrounds.
Consequently, (IMO) we have three possibly four horses from this weekend who could be serious Derby threats depending upon who can get in. Top Billing and Intense Holiday nobody was catching them and against the bias with ground loss. Mexicoma was encouraging for the same reasons. Plus Constitution.... he couldn\'t have been much more impressive (an some thought Tonalist was fast) and gives the all others pool entry a horse to get excited about.
So why give points in what are essentially long sprint races to qualify for running in a STAMINA based triple crown. Simply put - run preps at the classic distances! Then we could speculate with meaningful figures.
But that is not the system nor the tradition. In hindsight those of us who backed Orb last spring or the last minute, need not think we were smart we were lucky, That race was an aberration because of the pace meltdown and as Orb subsequently proved, he was nothing special, just a plodder who got lucky on the first Saturday in May.
