For those arguing that Smarty, etc proves pedigree doesn't matter

[covelj70]

I do have my friend\'s list from past derbies but that\'s his list to share though, not mine

he\'s on the board,

he\'s like a slient assasin though, reads but doesn\'t post!

[TGJB]

Well, why not ask him if you can run the study? He would probably like to know how it comes out himself.

[miff]

Too many horses outrun their breeding or underperform against it for me.What they do in the 1 1/8th preps far more relevant imo

[kmart4503]

YEAR   WINNER              DI      CD - PreviousTop - Derby Fig -  Diff   

1982   GATO DEL SOL    1.77     0.50     6.00     4.75     (1.25)
1983   SUNNY\'S HALO    1.82     0.46     6.50     5.00     (1.50)
1984   SWALE             1.93     0.68     5.50     4.50     (1.00)
1985   SPEND A BUCK    1.40     0.25     3.25     3.25     -  
1986   FERDINAND             1.50     0.55     10.00     7.00     (3.00)
1987   ALYSHEBA             3.80     1.08     9.00     6.00     (3.00)
1988   WINNING COLORS    3.50     0.72     6.75     6.50     (0.25)
1989   SUNDAY SILENCE    2.56     0.69     4.25     6.25     2.00
1990   UNBRIDLED             1.12     0.03     8.50     4.00     (4.50)
1991   STRIKE THE GOLD    9.00     1.30     7.00     6.00     (1.00)
1992   LIL E. TEE    3.00     0.88     6.50     5.50     (1.00)
1993   SEA HERO             1.12     0.08     7.00     5.50     (1.50)
1994   GO FOR GIN    1.00     0.05     4.00     4.00     -  
1995   THUNDER GULCH    4.00     1.10     3.50     3.50     -  
1996   GRINDSTONE    1.44     0.18     5.50     5.00     (0.50)
1997   SILVER CHARM    1.22     0.20     5.25     2.75     (2.50)
1998   REAL QUIET    5.29     1.27     3.75     3.75     -  
1999   CHARISMATIC    5.22     1.00     3.50     3.50     -  
2000   FUSAICHI PEGASUS   3.67     0.96     2.25     2.75     0.50
2001   MONARCHOS    1.40     0.28     0.25     (0.75)    (1.00)
2002   WAR EMBLEM    3.40     0.95     1.00     (0.50)    (1.50)
2003   FUNNY CIDE    1.53     0.46     1.50     1.50     -  
2004   SMARTY JONES    3.40     1.00     (3.75)    (1.75)    2.00
2005   GIACOMO             4.33     0.94     4.50     0.50     (4.00)
2006   BARBARO             1.81     0.53     1.50     (2.50)    (4.00)
2007   STREET SENSE    2.14     0.68     (2.00)    (2.00)    -  
2008   BIG BROWN             1.67     0.36     (3.50)    (4.75)    (1.25)
2009   MINE THAT BIRD    5.40     1.19     5.50     (0.75)    (6.25)
2010   SUPER SAVER    3.00     0.75     2.25     1.25     (1.00)
2011   ANIMAL KINGDOM    1.67     0.50     3.50     (0.25)    (3.75)
2012   I\'LL HAVE ANOTHER    2.11     0.50     1.25     1.25     -  
2013   ORB             3.21     0.75     (2.00)    (2.00)    -

[kmart4503]

Looked great before posting.... But that looks bad.

KMart

[TGJB]

And it\'s just the winners. But it\'s a start of a fact based conversation, at least.

[smalltimer]

I\'ve done similar to this, typically inconclusive because half are above and the other half below any set standard.  I\'ve had better success \"dividing\" the winners into 4 areas of their race.  I.E. first flight of horses, second flight of horses, third flight of horses, and fourth flight.  Separating where the winners were DURING the race to draw a correlation as to their ability to finish while near the front end, from well of the pace, etc.  Seems dosage has become less relevant over the years, but the ability to finish in the first flight, or the trailing flight has shown some promise.  War Emblem and the front running types fare differently than others not having a lot of speed.  Its still a work in progress. Sorry for so much confusion in the post.

[hooper]

Steve Roman has an archived data base of Derby runners since 1998 here. http://www.chef-de-race.com/archives.htm
Could be combined with the ThoroGraph data in Jerry’s archives to start a study.