A thought occurs re Kool Aid

[TGJB]

Hey Miff--

I don\'t look at the Thoro-Patterns myself, and for those who have been using TG for long enough to have a good opinion I recommend they don\'t either-- there are a ton of fine line distinctions to be made involving trainer changes, spacing, distance etc. You (Miff) have a million more involving race dynamics and other stuff.

But (and this goes to the difference between large and small population studies that Ragozin never understood), when you are dealing with a significant sample size, that stuff washes out.

So-- just looking at the Derby horses, how come there are such differences between the TP\'s of the different horses? Could it be that pattern matters?

[miff]

JB,

Along the 40+ year long road,I have met and interacted with math guys,pattern guys, stat guys,trip guys,sheet guys.I come away with the understanding that all of it counts some of the time, none of it counts all of the time.Don\'t laugh but for 600 races, the computer geeks randomly picked winners from a hat in one exercise, using the hat picks as a placebo vs another system based method of picking winners.

On the reasonable \"wash\" comment you make.I can only say that without running a very strict disciplined filter, you dont get what I consider to be validation, notwithstanding sample size.

I dont look at TP but I\'ll look at the method you arrive at it, it may be perfectly ok or possibly have holes.

Mike

[TGJB]

It\'s got plenty of holes, hence my comment about not using it raw. But over a large sample size some errors will go one way, some the other, it has to damn near wash out, because it\'s a coin flip who each one will favor.

Specifically, take a look at the difference between the 0-2 horses TP\'s (Bayern and IH) and those off pairs. Again, this is NOT a comment about those individual horses.

By the way, I\'ve now confirmed that, uh, Jake (?) has Cal C\'s top in the 7f race last December, not getting back to it since.

[miff]

\"By the way, I\'ve now confirmed that, uh, Jake (?) has Cal C\'s top in the 7f race last December, not getting back to it since\"


Rags ok but when their figs are not reflective, sometimes it\'s by alot.