Figure differences, part two

[TGJB]

On Jake, Tapiture\'s last, where he was 4th by seven in the Arkansas Derby, is within a 1/4 point of California Chrome\'s last two. Hey, could be.

[jimbo66]

Sheesh.

And I thought u had CC too slow. (And still do)


I want some of what they are smoking......

[jbrown007]

The great thing is we will know who had the figures correct after Saturday regarding California speed/track. Beyer has California Chrome towering over field. TGJB has him running decent but very unlikely to win and a no bet as the favorite.

[toppled]

If you remember last year Beyer had Goldencents towering over the field while the sheets had a very different story, with Orb faster than Goldencents.
 
In Saturday’s Derby, there is a colt whose most recent speed figure towers over his rivals’ and whose running style ought to give him a significant tactical advantage. I’m not going to be distracted by any handicapping subtleties. I’m betting on Goldencents.


This is a hard way to win a race – duel with a good speed horse and hold off a good stalker – but Goldencents did so and recorded a fast time. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 that was several lengths superior to all of the other major Derby preps. Orb earned a 97 in winning the Florida Derby, Verrazano a 95 in the Wood Memorial, Revolutionary a 93 in the Louisiana Derby, and Overanalyze an 88 in the Arkansas Derby

 http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-goldencents-stands-out-kentucky-derby-field

Now a look at the archives for the TG #s for the winner & Beyer\'s standout  Orb: -2 (off a 1 and good works towered over Beyer\'s pick)& Goldencents 1.25 (from a 6 with a prior top of 4).  

There\'s no need to wait until Saturday to know who is right.

[TGJB]

Now all you have to do is find Jimbo\'s post saying I had Goldencents and Cal in general too slow.

[jbrown007]

So your reasoning why I don\'t have to look at all the numbers is because ORB won over a sloppy track in 2013 and golden cents ran poorly? Goldencents had a big jump in thoro # and beyer # in the SA Derby. His breeding was very suspect and he was trained by Drug Oneill. Oh yeah and the track was sloppy. I\'m also pretty certain he had a lackluster workout before the derby but I could be wrong. Orb\'s beyers weren\'t bad and his thoro numbers were obviously better with wide trip.

2 years ago TGJB said play against creative cause, ill have another specifically. Stand against Bodemeister. We had a fast track and California ran big. Bode towered over field on beyers even before he got the blinkers taken off in the ARK derby but only scored 3\'s on thoro. Thorograph had union rags, gemologist, el padrino, take charge indy. California ran 1,2,5. They had the fastest beyers going in and going out.

Nobody is perfect and you must use all available resources. Just like Jimbo I believe the numbers are off out west. I wouldn\'t be surprised if we saw a similar top three as 2012 california style with CC and Hopp hitting board along with candy boy possibly squeezing in on the super (not a big fan of him though). IF the track is sloppy then everything can be thrown out the window.

[jimbo66]

Touché!

But last years result has proven out to be less about \"figures\" and more about \"pace\".  (Class would be proud)

Palace malice got a silly/stupid ride by Mike smith and any horse that was near that pace melted.  I say it proved out because two of the horses that were part of that race and predictably backed up, oxbow and palace malice, won the next two jewels of the triple crown.   Orb turned out to be done after the derby.  

Brings me to a point.  I am less convinced than some other posters about the pace being fast this year.  Wildcat red set a controlled pace last time out and is working poorly, hard to believe he will set a vicious pace.  Social inclusion isn\'t going to run.   Chrome is a stalker.  Vicars in trouble and Samraat are hardly 45 half horses.  Chitu is another stalker.  

Fast derby paces are set when many want the lead.  I don\'t see it.

A bunched up field makes the draw and early jockey decisions that much more critical.

[jbrown007]

Wouldn\'t be surprised if Wildcat was backing up at the half mile pole.

[TGJB]

I gotta ask. Did you actually look at the figures for the Cal horses in the 2012 Derby coming in, and what they ran?

[toppled]

I see enough 1s and 2s at the early calls for California Chrome, Vicar\'s in Trouble, Samraat, Wildcat Red, Chitu, and General a Rod to believe that in a 20 horse field at least 2 or 3 of them are going to scramble to the front and set up a hot pace for the closers to close into.  Especially when 3 of these have uncoupled stablemates, even though Maker\'s horses all appear to want to be close early.
Now I won\'t see the DRF pace figures (which I like the best-a lot better than BRIS) or post positions until late Wednesday night to help me figure out most likely to go to the lead, but there are enough who will want it to assure a fast pace.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I agree to a point on the pace

Espcially about Wildcat Red given his work and then what happens if/when Cali Chrome breaks bad which there\'s reason to believe he might.

The only part I disagree with is Chitu. Baffert drilled him from the gate for a reason. He\'s going to the lead and hes capable of running 109 and change for 6f. Baffert wants to set things up for the Hopper and make Cali Chrome\'s life tough up front if Cali Chrome gets out of the gate. Remember what Trinnigerg did to Bode? They pushed him to a 109 and 4 pace. That\'s what baffert is going to force CC to chase if he wants to be out in the clear and in the lead and I see him with no chance getting the distance going that fast. CC doesn\'t like being down inside other horse which is why Victor has ridden him the way he has in the last few starts

These race dynamics are some of the reasons why I really don\'t think CC has any shot to win the race and I don\'t think he will even be around at the end

If something happens to Chitu before the race or at the break, then slow pace and if CC breaks, then he has a shot. otherwise, I still see a fast pace and no shot.