Zenyatta 2.0

[Silver Charm]

I believe I said before the Derby this horse was gonna get Bet. That the California Fans love this horse. He came from their grass root Program and no matter what anything else says they believe in him. And they were right.

Look at all the obvious reasons we heard to be skeptical of him:

1) He was slow on Ragozin.
2) There were at least 6 horses on TG as fast or faster.
3) He was Training bad.
4) He look smaller than some people thought he was
5) He looked tuck up
6) No work over the Track (I think)
7) He was going to be stopping like a shot duck at the 8th pole

And yet there he was at 2-1 after Fridays early wagering and never went higher than 5/2. Someone on here actually said he was gonna be 5-1 on Friday and possibly drift down a little (like 9/2) on Saturday but was never gonna be a short as he ended up being and you were pretty stupid to think otherwise.

I predict (depending on field size) he will go off at about EVEN MONEY at Pimlico. Anything less and people begin looking at other Pools to make their money. If anyone thinks the West Coast crowd has lost confidence in him and will be backing off they not thinking straight. Now there are other believers. And that Wagon is getting full quickly.......

[FrankD.]

Dale,

I hope all is well and I have to play a bit of devils advocate here.

Chrome was an absolute legitimate favorite and had done far more than any of the others who made the walk over on Saturday coming into the race. There is no doubt he will be even moneyish for the Preakness; people love to hop on the band wagon; especially those who missed him at 5/2. Factor in the record of the so called fresh shooters lining up for the Preakness but if you go back through the achieves very few Preakness winners didn\'t run in the Derby.

I\'ll admit to drinking too much Kool Aide and not pounding my exactas and tri\'s using Cali Chrome heavily while keying 37/1. I made a reasonable profit on the race with a $20 exacta and $3 triple. However I had $50 exacta\'s and $5 tri\'s with bombs, most of my exacta\'s were over $2,500 in the will pays. I\'m a big boy and have been at this for awhile and took a swing at a 6 figure score. I missed on to the next one.

IMHO one of the greatest values of TG sheets is identifying a bad favorite or favorites in a race and taking a % shot in horizontals and verticals with a price horse who fits. Of course not to Chrome being a bad favorite he was legitimate. I loved Curve\'s pattern and swung for the fences hoping Chrome would melt down in traffic, chasing a hot pace, distance limitations perceived or not etc...

He will be even money in the Preakness and have to deal with Social Inclusion (foot bruise apparently nothing) Bayern and now the cowboy trainer of Ride on Curlin bashes Calvin and names Rosario up, guess what he is going to do?
Chrome has not yet proved he can overcome adversity, he hasn\'t had to as a 3 yr old. Will I bet against him and how much? No clue it\'s way too early to tell but I know I will not be betting a cent on him in the top position again. Sherman is not at all keen about bringing his horses back so quickly. This is an old school trainer who basically runs a low level claiming outfit. Even if he wins; as mjellish stated yesterday it will be all in against him in the Belmont. Chrome\'s biggest advocate on this board has been Miff followed by Jimbo, 2 guy\'s that bet a lot of money year round mostly trying to beat favorites. Miff even commented \" if he has one more left in him\" he will not get beat. Does he have another one?
I was against him at 5/2 and used him merely as a saver I\'ll not be paying to answer that at even money.

I can\'t ever recall so many opinions that I respect completely tossing a legimate favorite who fit number wise in a big race. Chalk up one for the public and let\'s keep their money in the pools now that they have some!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Silver Charm]

Frank well said and all is good here. It was a great weekend and success for the Charity Event. I lost for the 2 days what I bet on the Derby.

Bad Favorite or Bad Priced Favorite I hope we both agree are two different things. Chrome was a deserving Favorite but at 2-1 or 5/2 there are so many obstacles in the Derby along with risks and the potential for HUGE rewards if you go against the grain that its worth the Shot to take it.

Think about Chrome as 2-1 on Friday versus Untappable at an early 7/5 who was like 3-4 lengths faster than the rest of the field. I\'m not ashamed to admit I bet her to win. Got half my losses back for the day and turned the whole weekend around on the 6th on Saturday with a horse who only had ONE number equal to what the obvious Favorite Centre Court. Who otherwise laid all over the field. And BTW the Football Player who took down $100K+ on that race did it by tossing that obvious favorite. And those kinds of scores usually only happen on certain days like Kentucky Derby Day so I cant blame anyone for taking their SHOT!!! Cheers!!

[richiebee]

I\'ve noticed a pattern concerning California Chrome:

1) He likes to run.
2) He likes to make the front.
3) He likes to pull away once he gets to the front.

CC seems to have the talent and the desire to win races. I will be pulling
for him to win the Preakness and then I will try to spring a pari- mutuel
ambush at Elmont in June. It will be fun to watch NYRA management handle a
crowd of 120,000; do not know what they will do with all the new car
inventory, which now seems to occupy more than 1/2 of Belmont\'s available
parking space.

I guess the only real competition will be from Ride on Curlin, who according
to trainer Bill Gowan, WILL WIN THE PREAKNESS switching from Borel to
Rosario. I guess the trainer realized that a new jockey will really help this
runner, whose two lifetime wins were at 5-1/2 and 6 furlongs and who was
never a threat in any Derby prep or the Derby.

Trainer Gowan wears a cowboy hat. With regards to his Preakness chances they
might say in the High Plains \"Big hat, no cattle.\"

[jbelfior]

The fact that he thought Borel was the answer speaks volumes about the trainer of ROC. Off the board at Pimlico is a safe bet.
It will be interesting to see how CC reacts to chasing a legitimate stakes horse\'s pace (Social Inclusion) as opposed to Cal breds, a maiden (SA Derby) or the great Uncle Sigh.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Tavasco]

I watched an interview of Calvin before the race. Apparently the Borels have an acquaintance or friendship with the ROC owners via the two wives.

I\'m reading between the lines when I guess Calvin\'s Derby mount was at the behest of the owner not the trainer.

Doesn\'t alter the fact that the trainer could use an image consultant.

[jimbo66]

Joe b

With all due respect, u don\'t get to use the \"who did he beat\" argument, after a horse bears 18 or 19 other horses in the derby.  

We heard a whole lot of that from a lot of posters prior to the derby.  The horse dusted them all in the derby, albeit in a slow race.  Time to give the horse his due and move on.  No more \"weak California races\" argument.

The slow figure makes the Preakness interesting.  Although some of the rose is off the bloom with both Bayern and social inclusion, two horses many of us thought were special.  

Good luck

[Topcat]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I believe I said before the Derby this horse was
> gonna get Bet. That the California Fans love this
> horse. He came from their grass root Program and
> no matter what anything else says they believe in
> him. And they were right.
>
> Look at all the obvious reasons we heard to be
> skeptical of him:
>
> 1) He was slow on Ragozin.
> 2) There were at least 6 horses on TG as fast or
> faster.
> 3) He was Training bad.
> 4) He look smaller than some people thought he
> was
> 5) He looked tuck up
> 6) No work over the Track (I think)
> 7) He was going to be stopping like a shot duck at
> the 8th pole
>
> And yet there he was at 2-1 after Fridays early
> wagering and never went higher than 5/2. Someone
> on here actually said he was gonna be 5-1 on
> Friday and possibly drift down a little (like 9/2)
> on Saturday but was never gonna be a short as he
> ended up being and you were pretty stupid to think
> otherwise.
>
> I predict (depending on field size) he will go off
> at about EVEN MONEY at Pimlico. Anything less and
> people begin looking at other Pools to make their
> money. If anyone thinks the West Coast crowd has
> lost confidence in him and will be backing off
> they not thinking straight. Now there are other
> believers. And that Wagon is getting full
> quickly.......


I\'m among those who thought he\'d drift Oaks day before being played down.   Surprised me.   Kudos to those who piled in on him . . . justified all the confidence.

He\'s virtually certain to be markedly odds-on in Baltimore.   Anyone looking to ride CC who\'s willing to take 4-5 should find it and get on it, now.

[Silver Charm]

Guys the amount of quality information and analysis that was put forth here in the last 4 weeks was the best of any horse racing Board on the Net. I couldn\'t add much so I stayed out of the way. One thing about having an opinion in this game is you will periodically be wrong. The question is \"how much did you make when you were right?\"

Keep the good posts, analysis and information coming!!

[Topcat]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Guys the amount of quality information and
> analysis that was put forth here in the last 4
> weeks was the best of any horse racing Board on
> the Net. I couldn\'t add much so I stayed out of
> the way. One thing about having an opinion in this
> game is you will periodically be wrong. The
> question is \"how much did you make when you were
> right?\"
>

You said it, buster.  Can\'t beat it with a stick.