The favorite looks tough to deny in this race. I will be looking for Vertical Value by tossing the likely 2nd ML choice. The 3rd ML choice also looks vulnerable.
1 Internet Success (5-1): forward moving pattern. competitive number, but at sprints. TGI suggests might not like a mile. I will use underneath, small protective bets.
2 Jmac\'s Bling (30-1): too slow
3 Circustown Flyer (10-1): a little slow. Sprints. TGI suggests might not appreciate the mile.
4 Ibaka (7-5): good numbers. proven at the distance. looks tough.
5 Ring Necked (6-1): I like this horse to hit the board. A little slow number-wise, but forward moving pattern, most likely to improve, and proven at the distance. Must use. I really do not see as a threat to Ibaka, but 2nd not unlikely.
6 Early Hot Water (15-1): Not sure what to do with him. TGI indicates might not appreciate the distance, but only 3rd lifetime race with somewhat of a chance for improvement. At 15-1, I\'ll use.
7 Dutch Hohn (20-1): slow.
8 FJ Uncle Vic (5/2): in 11 races, only 1 decent number at a sprint. The other 10 are too slow to hit the board in this. Have to play against.
My opinion on this race is that Ibaka will win for fun. I believe Ring Necked has the best chance of running 2nd with his anticipated improvement. I will play that exacta ice cold and heavy--which is betting my opinion of the race. I will also play small trifectas Keying Ibaka on top, Ring Necked in 2nd and 3rd spots, with Internet Success and Early Hot Water in case they defy their breeding/TGI. I\'d like Early Hot Water to be the one to come in 3rd.
Anybody have any thoughts on the analysis or betting strategy? Especially, TGJB???
