Vito/Trainers

[Gerard]

I\'m sure the subset of trainer intent within an arsenal of data that would make the trainer live is a very useful tool. I\'m speaking more to the novice reader here that may only play a few races a year where horses are pointed to a race and as such, class moves will take on far less importance than in the throws of everyday racing. In these few big races, you\'re single most important factor in handicapping is who\'s the fastest, and when there is a clear cut standout, and yes the odds will probably be short, you\'ve a far superior chance of being right than with any other handicapping tool. As to the old key race angle, I look for big fields to most likely produce key races, which is why I went with the Bluegrass as a potential key to this years race(surface and time between aside), as it was the only race with a full field. And what did it get me, another knock on the head for wondering where the odds on CC(37-1) would be come post time and leaving him off because I though he\'d be less than 20-1, even though numbers and pattern still had him playable at less than 20-1. so far all the work and tape watching and analyzing of this yeas race, the seminar had a live long shot come in to fill out a nice exacta and other exotics who had it. Sure there were other ways to come up with CC, but this was the shortest clearest path.

[Rick B.]

Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...the seminar had a live long shot come in to
> fill out a nice exacta and other exotics who had it.
> Sure there were other ways to come up with CC, but
> this was the shortest clearest path.

Exactly.

This is where just clearing your head of tons and tons
of (sometimes conflicting) handicapping information can
pay off.
 
Once you have your key and minor slots horses identified,
stop handicapping and spend more time on structuring your
bets; even if you are only spending a C-note, map it out
so you don\'t have smack yourself in the head later.

[Gerard]

I lost a lot of drinking time on this years race, not going to let that happen again.

[bellsbendboy]

No offense Rick but this may be the first time!

Using the Derby as an example is dicey at best, although the best horse often wins, like this year.

I am going to use your selection, or key, Chitu to explain class but realize class is not anything you can put a number on.  A famous trainer years ago could not define class but said \"put one horse with it and one without it and gallop them together... very shortly the one without class will look like he has flat tire\".

Chitu is likewise a poor example as the colt had serious shortcomings on pedigree and form which are vital handicapping tools by themselves.  Genetically, Chitu had zero chance to stay ten panels under scale weight in the spring and on form he was worse.  He had broken bad his last four and could not keep a spider shoe on his badly deteriorating foot, in his gate work derby week and was a box seat horse at best.

Betting/playing this one was a dart in the dark or a man crush on the trainer.

With that written Chitu was a simple toss on class.  Factually,  Chitu had run against 24 horses prior to the Derby.  Backing out the maiden wins by these horses, and the only \"two timer\" (his stablemate Midnight Hawk), these horses showed a collective total of 121 starts.

The average purse for the 121 starts I am going to estimate was $40K as most were one x\'s, many at second class circuits.  Out of those 121 starts Chitu\'s running mates were only able to win SIX of those races.

In a race with five grade one winners, and five other multiple graded stakes winners Chitu obviously did not measure up.  bbb

[TGJB]

In other words, when Chitu\'s foot heals he\'ll have more \"class\".

You quoted a trainer-- I\'m guessing that was said at least 20 years ago. Trainers have gotten a lot smarter since then. The top trainers all use figures now, even if they\'re Beyers, as the primary basis of their analysis.

[Rick B.]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With that written Chitu was a simple toss on
> class.  Factually,  Chitu had run against 24
> horses prior to the Derby.  Backing out the maiden
> wins by these horses, and the only \"two timer\"
> (his stablemate Midnight Hawk), these horses
> showed a collective total of 121 starts.
>
> The average purse for the 121 starts I am going to
> estimate was $40K as most were one x\'s, many at
> second class circuits.  Out of those 121 starts
> Chitu\'s running mates were only able to win SIX of
> those races.
>
> In a race with five grade one winners, and five
> other multiple graded stakes winners Chitu
> obviously did not measure up.  bbb

So, Chitu and his running mates weren\'t collectively
fast enough to earn as much money as horses that
ran faster and earned more money.

This \"class\" thing is kind of slippery, but I think
I am getting it; it seems to be summarized smartly
by what the trainer supposedly told the jock in the
movie Let It Ride:

\"Go fast and WIN.\"