First I want to say how much I appreciate having Michael D and Mjellish
contributing during Triple Crown, Breeders Cup, etc. I personally have to
thank them both for being very patient with me as I occasionally stray off
topic.
Both of these gentlemen have pointed out that Social Inclusion, like 2006
Preakness winner Bernardini, had only 3 lifetime starts coming in to Baltimore.
I would like to split some hairs here.
1)Bernardini won his final prep, the Withers at Aq, three weeks before his
Preakness victory. In his final prep, SI was third in the Wood, six weeks ago.
Without doing extensive research or creating an Excel chart, my OPINION is
that for a healthy 3YO, I would prefer the three week gap as opposed to the
six week gap. Bottom line is that SI comes to the Hilltop without a stakes win
of any kind.
2) Bloodline: Bernardini was by top stallion AP Indy out of a mare who earned
over 800K on the track. The most excellent TG data shows that SI, by Pioneer
of the Nile, sold for 60K as a yearling whereas the average POTN yearling sold
for 80K.
3) In retrospect, we have the advantage of knowing that Bernardini went on to
become an outstanding 3YO, putting up a string of negative TG #s in winning
the Jimbo Dandy and the Travers by open lengths, then went on to win the JC
Gold Cup before running second to Invasor in the BC Classic.
Mjellish made an excellent point in the run up to the Derby. While we all
seemed to agree that a 3YO who was successful at 9 furlongs in a March or April
major prep should be able to get 10 furlongs in May, MJ pointed out that some
of the prep winners were basically milers who were stretched to their limit to
win at 1-1/8 miles, and that these were colts who should be avoided in the TC
series.
This is the way I feel about SI, who tired in his 1-1/8th final prep in the
Wood, six weeks ago. Even if he gets an uncontested early lead (unlikely) on a
track surface he likes (who knows?), I think SI comes face to face with oxygen
debt/lactic acid build up in the lane and is tossable here as a clear second
favorite.
