Preakness Observations

[T Severini]

Congrats to the winner.

By now Thorograph is going over the figure. Now they are earning their money.

Saw the rain and realized AP\'s speed pop strategy and did not want another high risk variable and passed, despite having an odd feeling about him. Maybe that odd feeling is Triple Crown. History reveals that is an oddity.

What can you say, Firing Line definitely went off, but that didn\'t surprise with the lead issue from the Derby. Dortmund was not as effective and neither was Danzig Moon. The bombs got up and the Super wasn\'t bad. Imagine some AP backers had that.

That was a slow race however. Very slow. They came home in a mathed out last quarter in about 27:72 (They being AP). That calculates to over 2:05 for 10 poles.

Rain throws the race into it\'s own category but sheeeez and the second place horse is a career 12 fig animal? Yeah, he ran faster yesterday but still.

Belmont next, choose this day whom ye shall back.

[ringato3]

Chuckles,

Some things never change...

Strong pre-race opinion.    Lots of posts about it.

Post race when opinion is extremely wrong, a post about skipping the race, getting caught up in something else so u couldn\'t bet, or changing your mind...

Sometimes it is ok to just say, I had an opinion, swung hard, and missed wildly.   (My preakness story)


Rob

[clemsonjc]

slow race or not, the mud forces you to throw this one out the window. whatever figure earned by whatever source will include a many more human assumptions than typical.  if he doesn\'t win the Belmont, i wouldn\'t argue a bounce more than i would argue history will have won out again.

more importantly lets talk about this horse\'s endurance.  mud or no mud every other horse that ran in the derby is still running on the track.

AP has the sire lines to take the Belmont. More so than many of the others who have attempted.  Big Brown was very questionable to get the distance, Cali Chrome less so but certainly not regal on the mare side. and lucky pulpit meh...

certainly will be challenged by Materiality as he has the speed and the breeding and the running style to be right there...

[T Severini]

It\'s Tony,

I was on the fence, saw the rain and did not send anything in. I think a fair reading of my posts indicates vacillation. It\'s a question about rain. To some bettors it means nothing. I don\'t rely exclusively on figures.

Generally, from home, will write something concrete just before the race, unless I\"m in Kentucky on a Tablet.

Kentucky would have been:

Materiality
Upstart - Firing Line
Upstart - Firing Line - Frosted -Dortmund-AP
Upstart - Firing Line - Frosted -Dortmund-AP-Keen Ice

But if the Belmont offers something concrete (and I think it will) I\'ll write it up. Course you\'re still gonna have to project that in the list above if it had gone Materiality and Upstart in the Derby would I actually have had the perfecta.

As an aside, thought the track was definitely favoring front end horses before the rain hit. The question became, how will a sloppy surface influence that trend in the Preakness.


ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Some things never change...
>
> Strong pre-race opinion.    Lots of posts about
> it.
>
> Post race when opinion is extremely wrong, a post
> about skipping the race, getting caught up in
> something else so u couldn\'t bet, or changing your
> mind...
>
> Sometimes it is ok to just say, I had an opinion,
> swung hard, and missed wildly.   (My preakness
> story)
>
>
> Rob