Framento

[shanahan]

I\'m all in,as I have followed him all Spring with no reward.   Sounds crazy, yes.  But I must think he\'s a slow developer and trust Zito , who would not embarass the race nor himself.  Plus , he looks fantastic, bred to go long...and provides value with the great one.
Yes, I know his figs are not with the top ones...like Da\'Tara and others...

[johnnym]

If Materiality goes and Carpe is right their and AP does not get a break on the lead it just may set up for a closer.

[miff]

Lotta \"if\'s\" there but wouldn\'t that scenario favor Fraud-sted?

[big18741]

Seems like the connections want Frosted closer this time and don\'t want him losing as much ground.

Kiaran in interviews says he was second best in the Derby but too far back and wide.
A couple of 47 works in company with the Met miler has me thinking they do plan on sitting much closer to whatever the pace is Saturday.

With Rosario saving ground is probably not an option but Fraud-sted(love this) may be sitting 4th and not that far back.

The 2nd,3rd and 4th choices don\'t want AP getting too comfortable.

[miff]

Having lost enough $ on Fraud-sted when Upstart was drubbing him at GP, think he is better/stronger making a run from a little farther back rather than sitting closer up.Will he kick as hard and as long if he has to target AP/Mat early?

[ringato3]

Mike,

As for Fraud-steD, having bet him both times against upstart as well, and particularly hammered him the second time when he looked 1-5 turning for home, I can empathize with your frustration with him.  

That said, since the procedure he had, he ran a very good Wood and a decent Derby (don\'t agree with Kiaran that he was second best, but he and materiality were the only ones outside the top 3 that did any running IMO. )

This is a horse that had a great 2 year old foundation, breeding pretty good, trained by a hot trainer and racing at his home track, with good spacing.  And seems to be training well.

If he is a fraud, then there really aren\'t any contenders to beat AP.  (Having read all your posts, seems pretty clear u think there aren\'t)

I think he and materiality have a good shot.   The rest to me are slow pretenders.

Rob

[jbelfior]

Sweeping turns will be kinder to Frosted\'s tendency to accelerate wide.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Rob,

The 12f makes the race far more pot luck than a \"normal\" race.Getting away from over thinking it, AP has to regress to get beat if looking at fast/accomplished.Maybe AP cant get 12f and maybe he\'s weakened by the campaign, maybe,maybe!

If you give a full mulligan to Materiality for the derby,you can argue he has racetrack license to hook and maybe outrun AP.Mat did hook Upstart and put him away, I think Upstart is distance challenged until he shows otherwise but he\'s fast.

The rest have never demonstrated a racetrack license to outrun AP, inc Fraud-sted(2 for 8 lifetime). Dont buy his Wood fig on two counts,Trancedur ran a neg, ,1/2 (5+ point top) and El Kabir went forward from a previous sharp win, dont buy either scenario.In January,KPM thought Frosted would win the Derby.

Wont get too involved in Belmont itself,think if I can find a suck up slug bomb to get in the number, I may try that.

Good Luck

Mike

[beazley]

I think the slug to stick with is Verve. He is proven at 9.5F and beat some good ones in Preakness. You get similar price as Framm.  I could see him in the placings again.  Yes most of his competition quit in he Preakness but doesn\'t deny the fact he ran well.  He likes off track too and he will be well back in the clear saving ground.

[johnnym]

Lol just a couple of \"ifs\".   Definitely not out of the question though.
I am quite positive that AP will not get a easy lead. That last 1/4 mile she can be really long you know.
When was the last time the favorite won the Belmont? I believe Afleet Alex 10 years ago
Good Luck