My Belmont bet

[P-Dub]

Pool integrity without a doubt.

We may be behind in catching drug cheaters, but pool manipulation......does anyone have a clue what is going on there?

[miff]

\"By the way, if the only way to make decisions was if you had first hand physical knowledge of the individual horse, it would be awful tough to bet horses. You would have to know not only about that one, but all the ones he\'s running against, too\"


...I could have written that, in the reality of the game, you said it all!

[TGJB]

Yeah. But A-- you still do, and B-- fortunately, it\'s not.

[Paolo]

What do we know about pool manipulation?

1) Integrity is inversely proportional to opportunity.
2) Ignorance is bliss if you have a healthy ROI.

[P-Dub]

Paolo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What do we know about pool manipulation?
>
> 1) Integrity is inversely proportional to
> opportunity.
> 2) Ignorance is bliss if you have a healthy ROI.

What did we know about the BC betting scandal?  Before the idiots got caught??

So as long as you have a healthy ROI, it doesn\'t matter if it should be healthier?

If you win the lottery for 10 mil, but 4 mil gets lost, its ok. You still have 6 mil?? You seriously believe that??

[Paolo]

What did we know about the BC betting scandal? Before the idiots got caught??

So as long as you have a healthy ROI, it doesn\'t matter if it should be healthier?

If you win the lottery for 10 mil, but 4 mil gets lost, its ok. You still have 6 mil?? You seriously believe that??

P-Dub


Silly season, indeed.

Rub-a-Dub-Dub. I should have put a sarcasm emoji on item #2? Or a pic of Yogi Berra? If you don\'t know about something, you don\'t know about it.

As for item #1, it is an absolute. Where there is opportunity to chisel, you will find chiselers.

Over and out.

[P-Dub]

Paolo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What did we know about the BC betting scandal?
> Before the idiots got caught??
>
> So as long as you have a healthy ROI, it doesn\'t
> matter if it should be healthier?
>
> If you win the lottery for 10 mil, but 4 mil gets
> lost, its ok. You still have 6 mil?? You seriously
> believe that??
>
> P-Dub
>
>
> Silly season, indeed.
>
> Rub-a-Dub-Dub. I should have put a sarcasm emoji
> on item #2? Or a pic of Yogi Berra? If you don\'t
> know about something, you don\'t know about it.
>
> As for item #1, it is an absolute. Where there is
> opportunity to chisel, you will find chiselers.
>
> Over and out.

Please stick to your over and out. Your comments are ridiculous.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> The rumor mill is churning about the Desormeaux
> brothers traveling with an extra suit case for
> tomorrows Tremont?

This one could like Belmont-- both his sire and dam sire won the Champagne
Stakes.

[T Severini]

Took a look back to see how Baffert brought his other Two Gem winners to the Belmont Stakes and AP\'s recent works look similar to Real Quiet\'s.

All three previous attempts went with the plan to not work at Elmont. Obviously not a trainer, but I don\'t agree. You acclimate your horse to the track when you have the chance and Baffert had that chance. Hopefully, that failure bites him again.

Having watched all of American Pharoah\'s recent workouts it sure appeared that he was \"head lugging\" further to the right more than usual in that final workout. The time wasn\'t as flashy either and Baffert was not as ebullient as he was when say Silver Charm last prepped at Churchill for the Belmont Stakes. Will have to grant that AP was under some subtle restraint and that could have exacerbated the head lugging. The track looked a little wet as well. Hopefully, we catch a deep dry surface Saturday.

AP Work


Now I have to say the field is not as deep as I\'d like to see, but then neither is this crop. However I have three picked out that I believe can do the job if AP isn\'t up to the Big Sandy and/or the grind. Will discuss those soon.

[rhagood]

Pivoting from Wired magazine to Slate magazine, more from the non-kook aid drinkers camp:

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/06/american_pharoah_triple_crown_smart_bettors_will_put_their_money_on_the.html

[toppled]

Looking at the list he puts in the story, it makes a better case for betting all the horses over 29-1 than betting them all.  4 of the races paid over 29-1 making his stats for betting them all look better than they are, since in 8 of the 12 years he either loses or doesn\'t make much money. $357 of the $427.10 are from those 4 races, leaving only $70.10 for the other 8 years, an average of $8.76, a 3/1 payoff for betting all others.  Since there\'s a 2/3 chance of his method failing, change it to just the longest odds horses & he improves his ROI.  I guess the best way is use any horse over 25/1.

[Paolo]

Joe Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, et al:
WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929.

2015:
When the pseudo-scientists who don\'t follow horse racing talk about betting ALL, it\'s a great signal to key AP on top, especially if you have reason to toss Mat (Pletcher and big figs at GP), and Frosted (did Kiaran have reservations about running him the Belmont in the week following the Derby?). Will the exotics be diluted enough with \'chaos chasers\' such that there will be value with the fastest horse in the race?

[jma11473]

Paolo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Joe Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, et al:
> WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT
> SELL SIGNAL IN 1929.
>
> 2015:
> When the pseudo-scientists who don\'t follow horse
> racing talk about betting ALL, it\'s a great signal
> to key AP on top, especially if you have reason to
> toss Mat (Pletcher and big figs at GP), and
> Frosted (did Kiaran have reservations about
> running him the Belmont in the week following the
> Derby?). Will the exotics be diluted enough with
> \'chaos chasers\' such that there will be value with
> the fastest horse in the race?

They are going to be a lot more once-a-year \"pseudo-scientist\" fans betting ON Pharoah than betting against him.

[johnnym]

Super did pay more than 5x the tri...