Prejudices, Overlays, Underlays & M/L

[Tavasco]

Factors which will influence the tote or factors which will be overlooked
e.g. NY money will be attracted to Jacobson, AP\'s celebrity will make him an underlay, A Euro is certain to win the Turf, etc.

Juvenile Turf
Trip Handicappers Special - On Sept 26 @ Belmont the 3/1 second choice Ray\'s The Bar shipped in from Ascot and drew Javier Castellano in the G3 Pilgrim. Javier sticks and the M/L is now 20/1. The two horses who beat him in that race, the winner, Isotherm goes in the Juvenile Dirt @ 20/1 and Azar (Pletcher) and reported working very well is 10/1. Ray\'s The Bar saved ground and the TG # doesn\'t show him being squeezed back to last at the start nor behind a wall of horses before being steadied and lunging left athletically to finish third a neck. All while saving ground. Isotherm who had some ground loss is now being overlooked switching to dirt. Not necessarily win contenders but alive for a piece at healthy prices.

Dirt Mile
Visual Deception - Liam\'s Map 1/1. While he will be a single on many horizontal tickets who wants to make a win bet at even money. Both Bradester & Tapiture have m/l @ 10/1. I thought Bradester was a pretty sensational 3 y/o down @ GP before going off and I suppose having some physical issues, as mentioned elsewhere his Salvatore Mile was fast. Bradester has sprinter speed and the two front runners could help Tapiture who also has recent good races. Just because Liam\'s Map opened up a big lead on late runners like Tonalist, Honor Code, Wicked Strong and VE Day doesn\'t make him Private Zone (who goes :45 halfs in mile races). He\'s just seems to be carrying to much ink and a :46 half mile may not even get him the lead.

F & M Dirt
Running Style Special - Untapable This one is really a stretch. Some have criticized Untapable for running near the pace early in races this year to explain her seconditis. Assuming #11 post position doesn\'t help her 5/1 price Velasquez may take back early and make her big late run of yore and Zenyatta them.

End Of Day One

[miff]

Untapable spiked a fever, out of BC.

[Tavasco]

Prior to continuing my ramblings with Day 2, I\'m compelled to point out two prejudices.

1. The apple doesn\'t fall far from the tree. Absolutely nothing against Laurie Lukas nor her 80 y/o HOF trainer/father? D. Wayne, eccentricity is an interesting change of pace which challenges my preconceptions and prejudices. Much has been posted on this site on the subject of class, yet when Oregon bred Dynabeaver goes in Fridays last race the Marathon. The fact that this improving 3 y/o got its first win in a $5K claiming race in mid August @ ELP should be of no concern.

2. For those believers in mutual fund concepts, I noticed long time Tgenerate, part time hero, full time cajun and occasional T.V. star M. Beychok is managing a $25K betting pool @ twinspires. FWIW I assume he most surely will have carefully considered TGJB seminar thoughts in his weekend plays. As of 4:00 a.m. or there about some shares still available.

Thanks to TGJB & staff for all the hard work, all year and especially for this upcoming weekend. Your site, data, racing opinions and music knowledge are the best. I appreciate your patience.  

Any resemblance of my thoughts and those of the seminar are purely coincidental as well as extremely unlikely.

The BC Juvenile
So I labored to come up with a horse which seemed the least likely to bounce, to my dismay that is Greenpointcrusader who looks to be the favorite or one of. Coming out of N.Y. includes all that wise guy Gotham currency. So instead, Isotherm it is.

The Sprint
Ivan Fallunovalot - Took me days to figure out how to pronounce his name. He\'s a working class Texas bred. Calvin Borel has surprised more than once and may attack Castellano now that he\'s in KY and grudge not forgotten. The Raggies think he\'s fast. Doesn\'t seem to be carrying much ink. So @ 30/1 I\'m across the board.

The Classic
This is truly a no brainer. A strategy I have learned from the serious objective gamblers. Those that played against California Chrome increasing their bets until he lost, a strategy which takes conviction, patience and a bankroll. Those that were on the AP don\'t and got rewarded @ Saratoga while most just lost patience.

The opportunity is to beat the favorites! Certainly you can make a case for several. But, for me the big score is really either Keen Ice or Gleneagles. As for reasons other than price for the few who consider why? Curlin\'s progeny (Keen Ice) are reportedly late developers+. Galileo could run all day so his brilliant miler son (Gleneagles) will improve with distance. The connections also deserve more than a little respect.