Aqueduct Thursday

[dodie]

Today is supposed to be sunny and breezy at the Big Alpha.  
1.  Is this indeed the weather today in Ozone Park?
2.  How will this affect the card today?

  Generally, a rapidly drying out track favors closers over speed. If their is a headwind down the backstretch, early speed is at a disadvantage.  If their is a headwind blowing down the stretch, it helps early speed.

Am I right?  Thoughts on the conditions and the card?  Thanks in advance for any input.  Conditions read correctly today could be profitable.

[miff]

Sunny,windy off the turf, races 2,4,6 on main at 1 mile.Dirt course not listed but must be wet. Until they open, flag direction unknown.How track will profile not just about head wind/tail wind imo.Track maintenance very cautious at NYRA venues due to winter breakdown issue.

[dodie]

Thanks miff.  So cautious track maintenance disadvantages speed?  Or just wait to see?

[miff]

Dont think they do anything to intentionally bias the surface either way but sometimes it does

[dodie]

first race much the best winner came from well off the pace to win.  Speed duel with par fractions in front, though, so don\'t think too much can be read into track bias.  That said, I\'m going to continue to weight my opinion towards the \"drying out track favoring off the pace\" model.

[dodie]

Franco sweeps the double with an off the pacer in a route.

[dodie]

Ok, time to put my money where my mouth is.  The 5 Cotton Pickin from off the pace with 6 Missy Bay holding on for second.

[dodie]

That Harry Hernandez is a promising apprentice.  The 6/5 fave at a relatively easy lead and couldn\'t hold on under a much weaker bug boy.
OK, without Maggie\'s input, I\'m going to go with Dylan Davis on #8 Crafty Colonel from off the pace.  I say he\'s a new horse after the ultimate equipment change.  I\'ll back up with How\'s Your Sugar.  Should get a price on both.