I took a swing at the Pick-6 at SA today, and it wasn\'t exactly what you would call a raging success!
So, at the risk of running afoul of the Red-board Rangers, a post mortem and maybe we can figure out what I missed the first time around...
Race 4: I was turned off of #4, because since running the 7.5 at DMR, 3 Sept 2015, it seems like he hasn\'t shown much interest in getting back down there. #5 has only had one race since the 9.75 top, and has run a decent race on the downhill course, if he could get back to the 9.75 he\'d be pretty close so I used him. #8 has the right to improve off his one race and if he does he\'ll be in the thick of it, so I use him. Throw in the #13, who seems to have a very nice workout pattern and took some steam money leading up to the race.
Use: 5, 8, 13
Result: 8 wins, paying $13.00, and I\'m alive!
Race 5: #1 ran four months ago, and with the note \"bi/bo\" it makes me think the layoff was pretty likely due to being worn out or maybe even sore or injured, but he has been working out really well in the last few weeks. But given the connections, I decided not to use him because I thought the odds would be even money or worse and he doesn\'t appear to me to actually be better than others, let alone by any margin. #4 ran an 8.25 last one, 5 weeks ago, seems to me no reason he can\'t improve off that. #5 I included because even though he ran a big number last out it remains to be seen if he\'s going to bounce, and if so, how high. If he can run a 6-7 that might make him pretty competitive here, and a big price, so he\'s in. #7 I used because although he\'s backed up from the 5.75 it\'s a bit of an 0-2-X to my eyes, and he\'s had a little extra rest.
Use: 4, 5, 7
Result: despite Mike and #2\'s best efforts (#1 and #2 hook up for 21.01/43.23) #1 holds on to win, and I\'m looking forward to 3 consolation prizes. #4 is the third head in the 1-2 photo, 7 another half-length back, and 5 got a participation ribbon.
Race 6: #2 has two races under his belt and good spacing, seems to me he could improve another 3 or so points and run a 10, which looks to make him tough. #9 earned an 11.5 first out, so a 2-3 point improvement for her in her second outing makes her the choice IMO.
Use: 2, 9
Result: 6 and 8 duel in the stretch, with 8 prevailing and paying $78.20. I don\'t feel that bad about missing this (could I really have predicted a 15 point jump up? apparently not many could, 38/1). But, if the 6 pokes her nose out do I regret not allowing for a 5-ish point jump-up there? Any thoughts?
Race 7: #5 seems good for a 4 or so, but has never gone the hillside course. With a 1m stake yesterday, why is this horse in this race with a bunch of pretty tough customers? Anyway, trainer gotta know the horse better than I, so assuming the horse takes to the goofball grounds, we got a chance. I toss the #6 because following the 0 top it bounces bad and then needs most of 4 months off, this doesn\'t feel like a horse ready to run a big figure. #7\'s only bad figures are on dirt, so I assume it\'s going to run another 4-5-6 and be competitive, and has run the hillside before. #10 was my biggest bet of the day. #11, the notation \"vanned off\" never inspires a world of confidence but horse can probably win without its best and I assume the trainer wouldn\'t run the horse if it weren\'t fit, so on the ticket it goes.
Use: 5, 7, 10, 11
Result: 5 wins, paying $17.80, and I curse the gods that the Chinese food place at the Wynn wouldn\'t make my wife a takeout order, so I did the old \"fire and forget\" (made my bets and left the book) and watched my money get stuck behind a wall of horses along with the #10 and then gallop out past the moon while at a Vietnamese restaurant. Good news, the spring rolls paired their top and were still very good. However, the #5 only nosed out the #6 who I figured to be awful - what\'d I miss there?
Race 8: I like #5 to pair the 4.75 or even beat it, and the Thoro-Pattern seems to agree! 47% chance to pair or improve and even if he backs up 1-2 points it could be enough.
Use: 5
Result: 6-8-5, they all 3 went pretty fast on the front, my horse in between, and poof goes (more of!) my money. Can anyone see what I missed with the 6 or 8?
Race 9: #10 has been getting 4.25\'s and a 5 while taking some overland routes, he\'s in. #7 seems good for a 5.5 or 6 and at about 5/1 that seems worthwhile, he\'s in.
Use: 7, 10
Result: 2 wins, and the good news is we have a double carryover! The bad news is that they carried my money over! I couldn\'t really find a 2+-point improvement over the recent 6.75 point top for #2, is it there and I missed it?
