Derby Preps

[miff]

Rob,

No real standouts, figure wise.Moyhayem nice horse could be faster than showing, Nyquist same boat. Have not seen any real serious performance yet from my perspective.My barometer has always been the 9f preps, so it\'s time now to see which ones finish with authority.

Sat preps at Tampa and Santa were ok,nice figs were earned as both are looking in the TG 1-2 range, good for this year so far.Interesting that TAP has 3 horses moving forward at this time as opposed to being over the top. Hear Zulu will be redirected from Fl Derby to avoid Mohaymen and Nyquist.Zulu reportedly a \"wild child\" that went into FOY gate somewhat spent, may be under rated.TAP two top finishers at Tampa ran decent.Of interest there, Johnny V took off winner Destin to ride Outwork who was dusting Destin in morning workouts(TAP entourage bet serious $$ only to lose to stablemate)

At SA, Candy got loose and ran well.Had surface dead honest. Candy needs to get hooked imo before being considered a true 10f derby threat.

Mor Spirit was my horse prior to hiccup in training before San Fel.Ear plug thing was bullspit, hear he bled or was making noise like he flipped his palate.Looked very grindy and without quick on Sat, backing off till next race.

Derby future pools look like awful value to me relative to figs and accomplishment.Figs from 5 good sources do not distinguish any horse at this time and haven\'t seen anything to dispute that.

Mike

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I heard from local TAP owner that JV absolutely had his choice of the 2. No secrets in TAP barn and a few upstate dollars went into that pool. I\'m more inclined to believe it was the Repole entourage that did the real damage at the windows. As you know and I\'m sure have witnessed at NY tracks he travels with every Vinny Boom Batts from the neighborhood!

JV seems to be winding down his career in Craig Perret fashion, riding by appointment. Speaking of CP whom is nominated for the HOF this year and IMHO is very deserving.

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

TAP really doesn\'t try to hide his horses, how can he anyway. They train in sets most of the time and a zillion people watch and work there. The \"monkey\" has a zillion gambling buddies to boot.

Mike

[jbelfior]

Rob:
Exaggerator gets side swiped by Smokey Image coming out of the gate. May have changed the strategy. Eye popping middle move into a :46 half. Not sure there\'s a 3yo colt out there with a better turn of foot.

If he finishes on Saturday, one doesn\'t get 24-1 in the futures.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[mjellish]

It\'s still pretty early.  Whitmore intrigued me enough to put a future bet down, and i pressed it again yesterday.  I\'m not a fan of future bets in general, but i like how this one is coming around.  He had some trouble in the southwest that no one is mentioning, he broke slow and got stuck down on the inside behind a bunch of horses, ate a lot of dirt and ran up on heels, had to steady pretty hard, switch out, made a quick wide move and sustained it to nearly win.  Broke his maiden at CD and has nice breeding for the 1 1/4.  Yet to be seen if he is good enough.

[miff]

MJ,

Suddenbreakingnews took a ton of money in the last pool,surprising for a horse that races from way back.Do not love the race SBN and Whitmore come out of.It featured a fast pace(relatively speaking) and a pedestrian 32.84 last 5/16ths which made SBN and Whitmore appear to make a big late run.At the prices, agree Whitmore would be a better shot to take.

Mo Tom,out of the FG race,another horse that the trip guys like but bad trips in slow races just a trap imo.

Not sure it\'s early anymore with all of them entering the gate for their final prep next out.
 


Mike

[ajkreider]

It was a pedestrian last 5/16ths, but it was also the fastest last 5/16ths, and opening half, and mile of any of the several routes - as it should have been.  The best horses were in there.

And SBN came home a lot faster, being 8 1/2 back to finish almost 3 in front.  This while being 7W on at least part of the turn.  And as MJ pointed out, Whitmore had his own trouble to overcome.  

So, while the race was slow on the clock, it wasn\'t that slow, for the top two on that track.

[miff]

AJ,

Agree,for this year not too slow but the figure still lines up in that TG 3-4 range(Beyer 93/TF109) with several other so so preps.Many to choose from in that range may be sitting on a forward move.

At 42-1 or something, not the worst idea.


Mike

[mjellish]

It remains to be seen if he is good enough.  But i liked what i saw, and i liked what i learned about him after he caught my eye.  So i took him at 50-1 and pressed that some more in the future pool this weekend.  Trainer is underrated too.  Has done nice work with young horses.  

Future bets are a bad deal most of the time IMO. But if he were to win the rebel or run really well, i can sell all or part of these for a profit.  Thats kind of my MO with these things.  40-1 or 50-1 gives a lot of wiggle room.  So what the hell.

[TGJB]

I wanted to fade the favorites, but didn\'t see a straight price good enough, so I made a small Exag/Mor/Greenpoint box. Took Motts filly in the Oaks, he doesn\'t need more than one prep.

[big18741]

I was looking at Greenpoint in the last two pools but couldn\'t quite get there at those odds.I did use him in some exactas in Pool 2 though.

He\'d be really interesting with a forward move in the La Derby.

He was the one horse out of that awful Juvenile with an excuse(came out of the race with an eye infection) that I thought could be a nice three three year old router.

Played Pool 2 Danzing Candy 28-1 after his allowance win and in some exactas.Gun Runner in exactas only.Thought 25-1 on him was too short without having seen a 3yo race.Nothing in this last pool though on anyone.

Mohaymen sheet looks really nice but I keep going back to that 9f Remsen where he has an absolutely perfect trip but in deep stretch is drifting out and in.Could be he was a green two year old but I\'m thinking he might just be maxing out at 9f\'s.
Take a look at the head on replay.

[atakante]

Future pools can be fun conversation starters, but the sentiment that they are bad bets probably right. I got myself some Danzing Candy this weekend and an exacta with Mor spirit due to his grinding style that may come in handy if he can get himself in a good position around the final turn.  Was of the opinion Brody\'s Cause was being hyped way too much and he indeed had nothing to show though it was his first as a 3yo.  Feel the same way abut GPC.  As for Mohaymen, count me in the camp of \"he seems to have topped out\". Still undecided about the Pletcher horses especially after the Materiality disappointment of mine last year...kinda sworn off him though Zulu seems interesting. Can\'t say take any of these predictions to the bank, but it is what it is.

[ajkreider]

Interesting that the three likely favorites:  Whitmore, Cherry Wine, and SBN drew 12,13, and 14 respectively.  All three have done well coming from the back, but it seems to hurt Whitmore the most.

[Gerard]

Seems 3w4w was at least fair if not friendly on the sealed track Southwest day. Thinking 5w6w may have been even more so as this was the only full field to really test that part of the track. Going to at least try and beat SBN in the Rebel.

[Fairmount1]

Miff wrote:

Suddenbreakingnews took a ton of money in the last pool,surprising for a horse that races from way back

_________________________

He actually raced from the back that day b/c of the post position as Von Hemel discussed post race.  Prior to that in his races at Remington, he was much, much closer to the pace.  Poor post again and I think you know his strategy for the Rebel.  

This race should teach us several lessons for the Derby test.