Pool 4

[jbelfior]

Interesting board this morning. Shagaf and Mor Sprit only a point apart with Cupid 6 pts lower than Danzig Candy?

I cannot pass up 47-1 on Whitmore today. Obviously will need to improve (again) but I\'m thinking he\'s going to still be running when those that are faster are slowing down.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[mjellish]

Whitmore should have won the Rebel IMO.

It looked like he was going to go right by Cupid.  But he geared down as soon as he drew even with him.  Cupid responded and dug back in before Whitemore had a chance to respond.  To me that means Whitmore either has a tendency to wait on horses or has distance limitations.  He\'s bred just fine to get the 1 1/4, so I would tend to lean towards the waiting on horses thing.

If the race were today I would tend to use Whitmore more as longshot key underneath than anything else.  But if they time his run better maybe he gets there.

[jbelfior]

Agree. More likely to hit the board than win however hard to argue with the value on an improving 3yo with the right bloodlines in a wide open year.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[CHOWDERMAN]

have tom\'s ready at 80-1 in previous future pool...don\'t have a nummber for his race last week...any thoughts on him...

also have nickname at 80-1 in the oaks future...thoughts...

[mjellish]

I agree.  I have a future bet on Whitmore already and have him in exactas with 5 horses.  Unless he moves forward or some of the others have a lot of trouble I don\'t think he\'s good enough to win right now to be honest.  But he\'s althletic, can weave in and out of traffic, seems to handle stress and has a decent sustained move.  

It would be ironic, but I was just mentioning on Friday, to someone who really pushed me for a Derby horse, that if I had to bet the KY Derby today the best bet I could come up with would be to key Whitmore at a decent price - but only in the underneath positions because he waits on horses and probably won\'t win.  

Never have made a Derby bet like that before.  Can only imagine how pissed off I would be if he actually won.  Probably be right up there with watching Shackleford just miss 3rd after staying on a bad rail the whole trip around CD, which cost me a HUGE score, and then watching him come back two weeks later and win the Preakness.

[johnnym]

Pool 4 closed Nyquist 3-1 Mor Spirit 7-1
All others north of 10-1

[jbelfior]

Mor Spirit closed at 11-1.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Molesap]

Possible $2 Win Payoffs from Pool 4:

Nyquist $8.00
Mohaymen $19.40
All Other 3YO $22.40
Cupid $25.00
Mor Spirit $25.40
Gun Runner $29.40
Everyone else $34.00 or more

[johnnym]

Hmm guess I read it wrong..
My apologizes for wrong info.

[ajkreider]

He was certainly value, and I labored over putting something on him - but I opted for SBN at 34-1 instead.  I just don\'t see any way Whitmore finishes ahead of him at 10f.  SBN got by him in their first matchup, and was getting to him in the last one.

I get that the \"closing fast in a prep\" angle is and has been a good way to burn a ton of money on Derby day.  But SBN isn\'t a horse that always just misses.  And there\'s a difference in a horse that grinds his way closer while passing tired rivals, and one that makes up 6 and 4 lengths while running sub 6 second final fractions - which SBN has done in his last two against Whitmore.

[FrankD.]

SBN will probably need to run 2nd in Arkansas to make the derby. A 3rd would give him 30 points which isn\'t looking like enough this year.

[ajkreider]

I admit to thinking 30 will be enough, especially given that he\'ll have more than $500k if that happens - I think money is the tie breaker - but maybe not.  A lot of these horses will be battling for the same points.

It will be interesting to see what the connections of the Spiral winner, Fellowship, Forevamo, Flexibility, etc do.  They don\'t belong, but Derby fever being what it is . .  .