J.K Desormeaux SA Paddock Comments

[boardedup]

Before the SA Derby Keith Desormeaux was interviewed in the paddock by HGTV and I can\'t stop thinking about what he said. To paraphrase He said,

 \"The best way for us to win this race is to put him on the lead, we can win this race going to the lead, but we spent so much time teaching him something else, I don\'t want to confuse him now.\" (again that\'s paraphrased but pretty much exactly what he said)

 After that dominating of a performance is there any possible chance that they would send Exaggerator?? I would think not, but I keep thinking about that interview, I mean pre race they felt the best way to win was battle Danzing Candy up front?

In a race with only two projected to contest for the lead, I do believe some surprises will be sent, any thoughts?

[FrankD.]

Racetrack Rule #1:
Unless you have a trusted personal relationship with a jock or trainer never ever believe a word they say in public.

Racetrack Rule #2:
Jockey\'s are far and away the worst handicappers in the world. Story after story over the years of top jocks betting themselves into oblivion. Baeza, Ycaza and Cordero just to name a few.

[ringato3]

Hard to believe he said that.  If so, might be the dumbest thing ever said by a winning trainer before the race!  That race was filled with speed, even if sent he had no shot to make the lead.  Without having seen the interview, I have to speculate that he meant that on a wet Santa Anita surface, speed is king.  

As to your question, would not be surprised to see Exaggerator mid-pack but regardless of whether he is \"sent\" or not, he can\'t make the lead in the Derby if Danzig Candy runs.  

This concept of a non-speed horse being \"sent to the lead\" is a bit of a Belmont phenomenon and less of a Derby one.  Jcovello amazingly called for grindy Commissioner to set the Belmont pace a few years back and lots of people looking to recreate that.  

This Derby pace is pretty straightforward. Would not spend too much time figuring out who makes the top.  Danzig Candy does with outwork and Nyquist in the next flight.  What I am trying to figure out is which of the deeper closers can get mid-pack position, which may be key in a race filled with horses who want to run from late.  

Part of me wonders if i will be sick Saturday night around 8 pm when Danzig Candy sets a relatively soft pace and draws off in the stretch.  The race looks paceless and while I know Derbies almost never are, this one looks it.  Perhaps Danzig gets a mulligan for the wet track runoff race.  While his TG numbers before that are weak, his numbers elsewhere are competitive (in a slow year) and there has been plenty of talk about TG California numbers.

Rob

[boardedup]

Absolutely agree.  That\'s my problem, I cannot see any pace here what so ever, but as you point out, history says otherwise.  

I\'m trying to figure out how the speed doesn\'t walk on the front end and eliminate ~ 3/4\'s of the field from having any meaningful impact on the race and so far I\'m coming up as empty as MO\'s FL Derby!

[TGJB]

Wait, what? Danzing Candy\'s TG numbers are weak?

Off the top of my head Cali horses are 2,3 and 4th fastest going in, and the fastest is off a 7 point top.

Independent of DC, just a general comment about a subject that came up some years ago (when we crushed War Emblem)-- go back to the 70\'s or so, and look at how many Derbies have been won on the front end. Given field size, it\'s out of proportion high.

[ringato3]

Boardedup,

I don\'t think there are too many win candidates in this year\'s Derby.

Horses that IMO \"can win\":

Exaggerator, Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Danzig Candy, Destin.  

From those, I am only putting Danzig on the list because of controlled pace expectations and Mor Spirit because of a bit of blind faith in Baffert.  I would rather lose than key Pletcher in another Triple Crown race and watch him run up the track.  I also can\'t key Nyquist.  Might be faster than his figures show, but as the favorite with several with faster figures, have to pass on keying him.  I lean to Exaggerator, but certainly worry that the wet track helped him at least a bit.

I know others, especially TG users, will have Outwork on their short list, but thought his last race was awful.  Would not play any of the Wood horses.  Suck up or not, Trojan Nation not in the top 20 of west coast horses, and outwork was life and death to hold him off.  I visually liked GunRunner\'s last race, but his TG figure is just too slow to put on the shortlist.  Same with Brody\'s Cause and My Man Sam.  Forget about Lani.  Creator could be a late developing 3 year old getting good at the right time, but I am thinking beneficiary of a crazy pace and too grindy in a derby full of grinders.  No interest in Mo Tom or Whitmore (maybe 3rd/4th slots of super plays).

The short list is actually pretty short for me.  Hoping derby works point something out.

Rob

[ringato3]

Oops.

i guess I have to take it back.  I no longer have the sheet in front of me, but had Danzig Candy\'s sheet SA Derby day and from memory thought he had a 4 prior race, which is slow.  i guess you are saying that is wrong.

Will wait for Derby package before quoting any further TG numbers from memory.

Rob

[boardedup]

I think you\'re thinking of two back, he moved forward 3 points and then the disaster that was the SA Derby.  Thing is if you can get past that effort/or make an excuse for it, he fits as well as anyone. IMO

 I\'m in the camp that Outwork\'s Wood was better than the final time of the race indicates. I realize he was all out to beat a slow left coast maiden and the TAP angle is beyond brutal to swallow....

It\'s been a few years since I played a horse I thought would be on the lead, Hard Spun I think being the last, but this year I\'m having  hard time seeing it any other way, at least as of today

[boardedup]

Just out of curiosity, you mentioned that you didn\'t like Outwork\'s Wood, what did you think about his Tampa Derby?  

To me that was a super strong effort, and if you look at both the Tampa and AQ race together, I feel like there\'s a lot to like, especially vs this field.

[ringato3]

Boardedup,

I should probably restate what I said about the Wood.  Outwork ran best in the Wood and was tons better than the horse he beat a nose as far as racetrack performance goes.  He is the only horse out of the Wood that you could even CONSIDER.  That said, haven\'t we seen this movie before?   As I said earlier about the Dubi race as a prep, we have all seen Pletcher\'s MO in these preps.  His horses run lights out in their last prep before the DErby then don\'t show up at all on DERby day.  Somebody on the board will invariably try to excuse the 1-43 and say not all were favorites or some ran OK figures.  But in the end, his MO is pretty clear.  When they run big in the preps, ala MAteriality, BAndini and a whole bunch of others, they don\'t run well in the Derby.

Outwork is an even more extreme form of the pletcher problem with 3 year olds.  He had no foundation last year, just a 4.5 furlong race, so then was rushed even faster than Pletcher\'s usual 3 year olds and the lemon was squeezed even harder than usual.  I would make Outwork a top 4 choice to finish last in the Derby.  Not because he isn\'t talented, he is.  But he will be coming in off a top, limited foundation and Pletcher\'s track record in the DErby.

AS for your question, I liked his Tampa Bay Derby.  Thought he ran well first time routing.

The reason I am considering Destin a little bit and have him on the short list is because he ISN\'T the usual Pletcher MO.  He has a big top (for this year\'s crop), but it will have come 8 weeks out and perhaps he doesn\'t have to bounce to the moon like most of Pletcher\'s Derby horses have.  He is fast enough and if he moves forward, with any kind of trip, he has a great shot to win and if he pairs with a good trip, he has a shot.

Would expect Destin to be more likely to run well than Outwork on DErby day.

Rob

[jbelfior]

Outwork and Danzig Candy have been asked to do a lot in a relatively short amount of time.It may have led to DC\'s disaster in the SA Derby and IMO it will be the same for Outwork in Kentucky.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Strike]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Racetrack Rule #1:
> Unless you have a trusted personal relationship
> with a jock or trainer never ever believe a word
> they say in public.
>
> Racetrack Rule #2:
> Jockey\'s are far and away the worst handicappers
> in the world. Story after story over the years of
> top jocks betting themselves into oblivion. Baeza,
> Ycaza and Cordero just to name a few.

I somewhat agree with Rule #1 even though the only tips I ever pay attention to are from the jockey agents whose job it is to place their jockeys on the best horses.

Regarding Rule #2, I see your point but owners are at least as bad as anyone else.

[TheBull]

Not to mention how many of them have run big seconds too.....as much as we are all looking for the winner, if you tell me I can have one run second at fairly big odds, Im pretty sure I dont need to be spot on with the winner to still crush the race.

[Leamas57]

There was an old stockmarket saying something to the effect that if the president tells you to buy, you\'ll lose half your money, and if it\'s the CEO, you\'ll lose it all.

Leamas

[boardedup]

I actually saw another service\'s PP\'s have DC ranked as there #1.  Somewhat surprising.