Derby Bomber

[johnnym]

Higher than 20-1 do you think has the best chance of hitting the board?
Yes, I now the lines are not out but we all have a pretty good idea by now..

[toppled]

I\'m already On Brody\'s Cause a little lower than 20/1, but over 20/1 either Whitmore or Suddenbreakingnews could close into the trifecta or superfecta.

[boardedup]

I\'ve been pretty firmly planted in the speed camp. I like DC to at a bare minimum lay down a Shacleford type performance.

I also like Outwork\'s two preps a lot and he has a better sheet than most entered in here,(at least as it pertains to his progression as a three year old) but not sure if you\'ll quite get 20-1 on him or not.

Whitmore is another who\'s sheet looks promising to me coming in off pairing up his top. He\'s likely to be a huge price at post.  

I\'m not sure he can win but I think he\'s worth a look underneath. His AK troubles could be a blessing in disguise if he can get the distance.

[ringato3]

Toppled,

Brody\'s Cause is 4th choice in the betting offshore.  


Betting a slowish horse, \"on the come\" (needing a 2 or 3 point forward move), as 4th choice in a 20 horse field, where the pace scenario may hurt him, is a tough way to make money.

As for the original question by Johnny M.  Danzig Candy is 25-1 offshore right now and is faster than Brody (and many others in the race).  

Good luck.

Rob

[jbelfior]

Rob:
DC may be faster than BC but if I had to bet which one gets the 1 1/4 it would not be Danzing Candy. One horse listens to his rider the other does what he wants.
Many on here see him as a value play at 20-1 or better. I always thought that value equaled odds x probability of winning.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ringato3]

Joe B,

\"getting the 1 1/4\" is old school thinking.  How many horses not bred for and seemingly unlikely to \"get the 1 1/4 miles\" have won in the last 15 years?  Many is the answer.

Fast horses win races.  Will take a fast horse over a plodder any day of the week.

Brody MAY not be a plodder, but he has to take a step forward to win.  Tough for me to take him at what will be a relatively short price when he has to move forward, has to come from well out of it, and will be amongst 15 other horses who all want to do that.

I don\'t \"love\" Danzig Candy, I think Exaggerator is the most likely winner of the Derby.  But Danzig Candy \"ran off\" once on a wet track, which had a race with MUCH more early speed in it than this Derby will have.  Not sure I can call him a \"run off type\".  He can win this race with a TG 1, if he makes the lead.  At 20-1 that is value to me.  (I give him a 10% shot to win, roughly what I would give Brody\'s Cause).

Rob

[johnnym]

Thanks for responding,personally I\'m thinking SBN sneaks in and should be around 20-1
Good luck everyone

[jbelfior]

Rob:
I was referring to the mindset, not the pedigree. If he can relax early, DC has a chance--but it\'s a big if.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[jerry]

My Man Sam 25-1
Whitmore 33-1
Majesto 33-1

[Gerard]

Using the Fairmount line, I have to go with Whitmore. Not playing him to move forward, but a pair is likely and that probably hits the board this year. I see a logjam of horses this year though between 13-1 and 19-1, Whitmore falling in that category however. This is a year to watch the tote, question is, does the overlay lie with the horses who drift up, of is it with a 25-1 ml who is 15-1 pt ala AK?

[big18741]

Is a pair likely for Whitmore?

I like his price and the paired tops but there are some negatives.

4 preps
3 weeks rest

Does an extra furlong really help him given his finish going 8.5 and 9f\'s ?

If he does pair up you don\'t want it wasted with another wide trip in the Derby.
Inside draw would help(he\'s fine in traffic and didn\'t mind the rail in his Oaklawn sprint)for starters.

[Gerard]

At less than 20-1, I\'ll be leaving him off for all the reasons mentioned. Not many move forward off the 3 Oaklawn prep route. A wide trip pair puts him who knows where, but at a price, why not.

[big18741]

4 preps horses:

Creator
Shagaf
Majesto
Whitmore

Last 20 years

Tops 4%
Pair 20%
Off 21%
X   55%

[pizzalove]

What are the numbers for 2 and 3 prep horses.  Great post.

[FrankD.]

Shagaf has only had 3 races in 2016.
NW1, Gotham & Wood