All my hard work

[johnnym]

And all I needed was this..

https://www.google.com/amp/www.newsweek.com/artificial-intelligence-turns-20-11000-kentucky-derby-bet-457783%3famp=1?client=safari#

[Fairmount1]

So he basically built a model based on The Wisdom of the Crowd book mentioned by Crist in his Exotic Betting and mentioned by Mathcapper on the board.  Their swarm method identified the four favorites in order and boxed the exacta of the two favorites.  Sure sounds like The Wisdom of the Crowd premise to me.    

I just did a quick look at the results from Derby week at Churchill.  

May 3rd through May 7th.  5 racing days, 57 races.  

20 horse Derby field ran 1-2-3-4 by betting rank as noted on the board by miff in immediate aftermath.  Only 1 other race ran exactly 1-2-3-4.  It was on May 4th, an Allowance sprint at 5 furlongs that was off the turf with only 6 horses.  

2 for 57 (3.5 percent).  I guess I do not see it as the milestone that he does.  The algorithm identified the same four horses in the same order as the gambling public identified in the win pool.

Besides those 2 races of the exact order being 1-2-3-4 by betting rank, five (5) other races had the top four betting choices run 1 through 4 out of exact betting rank order.  One of those shouldn\'t count as it was a 4 horse off the turf field where it was guaranteed but the longest shot on the board won.  But I will count it any way.  7 of 57 (12%) races had the top 4 betting choices run 1st through 4th.

He was lucky like we all our on occasion.  No milestone if SBN doesn\'t miss Mohaymen by a nose and Mohaymen doesn\'t miss GR by a head.

[billk5300s]

If they were positive about the exact numbers, why did they bother to box the exacta?  JUst wondering?

[Mathcapper]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So he basically built a model based on The Wisdom
> of the Crowd book mentioned by Crist in his Exotic
> Betting and mentioned by Mathcapper on the board.
> Their swarm method identified the four favorites
> in order and boxed the exacta of the two
> favorites.  Sure sounds like The Wisdom of the
> Crowd premise to me.    
>
> He was lucky like we all our on occasion.

Yep. I think johnnym\'s post was tongue in cheek. If that computer genius keeps betting according to that algorithm of his, he\'s almost assuredly going to realize that he experienced a classic case of beginner\'s luck, and that over the long run he will lose at the exact same rate as the public -- minus the track take.

What he needs to do of course, is to come up with a line that is better than the public\'s, not one that mimics it.

[johnnym]

Public pretty much got the last place horse correct as well.