Belmont Late Pick 4

[jp702006]

I will not go into the great detail that Frank does when he posts his opinions, but here is my late pick 4 on Saturday. 4,6,7.10,13/2,3,4/4,6,7,11,13/2,5,6. $112.50 for 50 cents. The turf races seem to be pretty competitive, I could easily use a couple more horses in each. I\'m just trying to keep the cost reasonable. Good luck to everyone today.


Patrick

[richiebee]

Came up with a similar play, will be spending $150 on a ticket which does not
include probable ML faves Catch a Glimpse and Private Zone. Props to Patrick, who
includes Private Zone, but leaves Catch a Glimpse and Effinex off his ticket.

2,6,7,10,13/2,3,5/4,6,7,11,13/4,5,6,9 x.50 = $150.

Looks like all Euros and Mobytaahiij will go first Lasix and probably caught a
weather break as temperatures, which had been mid 90s all week, will probably top
out in the mid 70s.

[Topcat]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Came up with a similar play, will be spending $150
> on a ticket which does not
> include probable ML faves Catch a Glimpse and
> Private Zone. Props to Patrick, who
> includes Private Zone, but leaves Catch a Glimpse
> and Effinex off his ticket.
>
> 2,6,7,10,13/2,3,5/4,6,7,11,13/4,5,6,9 x.50 =
> $150.
>
> Looks like all Euros and Mobytaahiij will go first
> Lasix and probably caught a
> weather break as temperatures, which had been mid
> 90s all week, will probably top
> out in the mid 70s.



Of course, we will likely be dealing with acute measure of precip, adding to the card\'s degree of difficulty . . .

[johnnym]

Speaking of we\'re has Frank been?

[Fairmount1]

richiebee:  I like the ticket.  You have Aiden O\'Brien and the third Euro on both of your 3yo turf legs.  

I\'ll just say I will narrow to those 3 only in each leg and take my chances.  

Since July 4, 2015, Aiden O\'Brien has started 9 horses in the U.S. on Turf.  All were grade 1 races.  His record in those races is:  9-3-1-1.

A few notes on his non-winners.  Two of the starters that didn\'t hit the board lost to Tepin in the First Lady at Keeneland in October (Easter and Outstanding).  Shogun was a starter in the BCJuvy Turf and ran 10th of 14 but O\'Brien won the race with Hit It a Bomb.  And Outstanding ran 3rd behind Lady Eli in the Oaks last year with a 95 Beyer.  

So, to summarize, O\'Brien has pointed horses to 7 races on turf in the U.S. the last 12 months (53-54 weeks actually) and won 3 of them, earned a place, and show.    Losses included races to Tepin, Lady Eli, and Secret Gesture (DQ).  I see no superstars in these two races of the likes of Tepin or Lady Eli at a mile and a quarter.  Good luck.  

(Was really disappointed your MB made for TV movie didn\'t include a scene in a Ky courtroom with jurors having Snuck In bourbon flasks, sipping as they watch the drama unfold. In the key moment of the trial, MB attempts to put a shoe on one of the horses she allegedly owned.  The judge in a bizaare move allowed a horse (named Boxsprings) to be brought into Circuit Court looking dappled and shiny coated as ever (nothing like the horse previously did when discovered) for the \"fitting.\"  But the Cinderella of our story fumbles with the lucky horseshoe that just won\'t slip onto the hoof of the horse as her attorney screams, \"If the shoes fits, you must wear it!!  But if the shoe doesn\'t fit,......\")

[belmont3]

Frank is attending Posters Anonymous Meetings.

Expect a relapse Friday July 22.

[richiebee]

Of all the OBs, Deauville most fascinating, posted way wide and piloted by magical mystery tourist Jamie Spencer. Fast euro fig coming in...might he have bled in his last race?

In Oaks, whether one is using Catch a Glimpse or not, looks like Harmonize and Land or Sea (20-1 ml) should be used vertically.

[horsegoer]

How do you leave out the 8,9 in first...I know you can use all but need ot include those and eliminate other...leave 6 in.

[jp702006]

You have to take a stand somewhere. I was right in the first leg, but my stand in leg two proved to be fruitless.

[jimbo66]

JP,

Not criticizing the handicapping after the fact.  But using the 234 in the second leg, meaning the 1st, 3rd and 4th favorites in a 7 horse race, falls a tad short of a \"stand\"......  More like a chalky \"spread\".

Personally, was eliminated in the first leg.  Think Jamie Spencer stinks and thinking he would get the 13 horse, a EURO with limited early speed, to sit right off the lead before the first turn, out hustling a number of American Jockeys on horses with more tactical speed, like Javier and Frenchie.  (out hustling frenchie out of the gate not exactly a hard thing to do I guess....)

Jim

[jp702006]

Jim, my comment of taking a stand was in reference to horsegoer asking why I left the 6,8,9 off of my ticket for the 8th race. The only stand I was really taking today was not using effinex or Catch a glimpse. Obviously that didn\'t work out to well for me, but I\'m fairly certain I will play against both if they run at the Spa.