Is this going to be a thing this year?

[jerry]

Lol! Thanks. That\'s good!

[jerry]

Well some of us are just like that Jimbo. We can\'t help it. We were born that way.

BTW, DJT does have weirdly small hands, doesn\'t he? Maybe Rubio was on to something. But if you check the line on his manhood at PaddyPower, you can get good odds if you think there\'s a correlation.

[FrankD.]

It continues to amaze me HOW on a board that exists for discussions on performance figures, handicapping angles and coherent opinions on big races that the only topics that seem to draw responses from the masses contain none of the above?

Donald Trump, slot machine take outs, jockey nick names, going to the track alone and red boarders seem to be the topics the mob loves to discuss. While the handful  of posters that take the time to break a race or betting sequence down and provide
their version of a valid reason why barely get a response?

[jp702006]

Nail on the head!

[toppled]

I find today\'s card one of the most interesting of the meet.  I\'ll be trying to turn major plays in the 4th & 8th races into a big $ day.  

4th race: 1 or 2 first time starters will be overbet (Trade Zone and possibly Mo Bourbon too) but the 2 horses that I find appealing are my top pick #8 Basic Hero (10/1 ML) and 1st time Rudy #3 Mighty Moses.  Basic Hero ran the fastest top in this race as a 2YO last October in the mud at Belmont, had a very weird trip under Dylan Davis in his 3YO return last April: fractious at the gate, stumbling at the start, bumping another horse then rushing up to 4th early before fading to a poor sheet #. After that race he disappeared until June, then started a series of workouts that indicate he\'s going to improve on that top 2YO #.  If I can get anywhere near the 10/1 ML I\'ll be celebrating.  My backup horse is Mighty Moses who ran the 2nd best top as a 2YO andmakes his 3YO debut going from Baffert to Rudy.  Now, unlike Basic Hero, Mighty Moses has not been stellar in the AM for his return, but his relatively fast 2YO races & the fact he faced some of California\'s best 2YOs last year makes it impossible for me to toss him.  

5th: I find this race impossible, but with key plays in the 4th & 6th, I\'ll be hitting the ALL button & rooting for a bomb, because the 6th race play will be the odds on favorite.

6th: This race looks like the free square at the end of 1 pick 3 and the beginning of another P3 & P4 with #2 Syndergaard.  With 10/1 ML in the 4th & hopes for a bomb in the 5th I\'ll be completing this P3 with a Pletcher 1ster who went for $450,000, has been working like the real deal, and debuts against state breds.  If I\'m right on the 4th, and get my bomb in the 5th, the way the P3s have been overlaying the whole meet, I can expect to be rewarded, even with a 1/2 shot winning. I\'ll also be playing it forward with this horse starting P3s & P4s.

7th: I\'ve got the same dilemma as I did with the 4-6 P3.  Love the 1st & last legs of the 3 races, don\'t have a clue on the middle race.  I\'ll be hitting the ALL button again with 4,5,6,8,10 for twice the units as the rest of the field in my picks.  

8th: I love #3 Schivarelli.  This is his 3rd race back off an August 2015 to June 2016 layoff.  His 1st race was a toss, his 2nd showed improvement and now he\'s ready to get back to the tops he ran last year.  That makes him extremely competitive in here.  Will be playing exactas with the 6 & 8 and looking to cash another P3 with the hopes of a nice price in the middle juicing up the P3.

9th: I moved to the Albany area in 1988 and there have been 2 constants at Saratoga in the years since. One is obvious-Bill Mott will have a good meet.  Some would include Jonathan Sheppard winning a race every year, but my other constant is a guy 10 years older than Mott & me-Roy S. Lerman.  Roy is one of my favorite trainers of all time, tossing bombs for decades.  Now Roy had some rough Saratoga meets a few years ago, but has been good for a price horse in many of the 28 years I\'ve lived in the Capital region and a few years before I got here. Roy has #1 Abie (20/1 ML) in this race 2nd off the layoff, ran about 1 point off the other tops in this race in his 4YO debut and gets a positive rider change from Dylan Davis to Aaron Gryder.  It looks like one of my main themes today is Dylan Davis off.  He could complete a good P4 with 2 singles in the 6th & 8th. Final side note: Lerman bred this horse\'s sire Alphabet Soup and must have retained a breeding share when he sold him. When Alphabet Soup won the Breeder\'s Cup, there was a story about Roy Lerman in our local Albany Times Union.

[PapaChach]

If I\'d have known my post was going to cause a $hitstorm I wouldn\'t have bothered. I figured a mildly amusing anecdote posted in the middle of the night might amuse a handful of readers, I would have put the o/u on comments at one and probably taken the under...

[Topcat]

My fear parallels one of my primary concerns within meets of this type . . . the strongest barns are \'WAY too strong, and are elbowing virtually everyone else away from the troughs.  The rider \"race\" is no less a problem.   Nothing lasts forever, but sincere value-hunters tend to be subject to severe doughts under such conditions.

[jerry]

You brought up the man with tiny hands.

Heatherk actually did mention a forward move when he told of his bet.

As to this board, there\'s tons of talk about why my horse didn\'t win and none permitted about why my horse did win. Personally, I\'d rather listen to a winner talk about why he won than a loser talk about why he lost.

Finally, as to coherent opinions about big races, it amazes me that people spend so much time on big races where the payoffs are typically poor. How much money is blown trying to beat Frosted and the like when there are better betting opportunities in mid level claimers at Gulfstream. Talk about ego and trophy hunting. It\'s just stupid.

[joemama]

They must also have a very small head since a demitasse would fit their head like a sombrero.

[johnnym]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You brought up the man with tiny hands.
>
> Heatherk actually did mention a forward move when
> he told of his bet.
>
> As to this board, there\'s tons of talk about why
> my horse didn\'t win and none permitted about why
> my horse did win. Personally, I\'d rather listen to
> a winner talk about why he won than a loser talk
> about why he lost.
>
> Finally, as to coherent opinions about big races,
> it amazes me that people spend so much time on big
> races where the payoffs are typically poor. How
> much money is blown trying to beat Frosted and the
> like when there are better betting opportunities
> in mid level claimers at Gulfstream. Talk about
> ego and trophy hunting. It\'s just stupid.


Disagree with that 100% Look at the payouts on Derby day look at the Belmont tri and super look at the breeders cup payouts.
I live for those days.
Good luck

[jerry]

Those races are freaks. The derby\'s a 20 horse field of young 3 year olds who will either top, pair or regress. Good luck. While it is my favorite race to bet I have a long list of Gemologists, Upstarts and too many more names I\'d rather forget that have come in with a \"perfect sheet\" only to run up the track. It\'s a tough race to hit but a fun puzzle to try to solve. I don\'t mind paying for the entertainment. Side note: the 3yo derby prep races generally don\'t offer the same value.

The Belmont is my most profitable race due to the underlays made on fast but burned out horses vs. lesser accomplished horses with fresh legs. Again, aberrant circumstances because of the distance and the timing.

BC is impossible for me. I can box half the field and still miss the exacta. Most horses are fast enough to win on their best day with good trips. Predicting those two variables has never worked well for me. I can spot the bounce candidates and those too slow but that still leaves a basketful of other contenders. Rarely have I made money betting BC card.

The majority of the other stakes races around the country tend to be made up of small, non-competitive fields. Trainers have lots of other places they can run there horses without ding donging with the best in their class.

Another peeve I have with TG is there choice of ROTW. Why choose a feature race that offers no value when you could choose a lesser race with a full and competitive field? Simply as a learning tool it would be more interesting. If you really want to show off your numbers pick a race with a standout overlay. There are plenty to choose from.

[P-Dub]

Jerry,

I agree with you about the Derby and Belmont.

OTOH the BC has, more often than not, been a very good weekend for me and other TG users, The TG data and analysis is second to none. I\'ve had my share of swing and misses due to the competitive nature of the races, but there is also tremendous value to be had for that very same reason. The TG crew was ALL OVER Texas Red when he aired at 14-1 a couple years ago. There have been several others.

Regarding stakes races, I agree that at times its a bit of a trophy hunt. But they contain top class horses and its fun to talk about those horses.

[shanahan]

Frank, I posted all my plays Saturday am, and not ONE reply/post to agree/contest those plays.  I share the frustration, but it also served me no good purpose not to come by the backyard and say hi.  For that, I apologize.  Hope the resto of the meet goes better for all.

[jbelfior]

Agree. As in any other sport, fans tend to speak more about the games\' stars.

Not all graded stakes can be lumped together when it comes to value. Grade 3\'s provide a significantly better opportunity than 2\'s which are slightly better than 1\'s (especially among older). The Derby and Belmont are exceptions. Young and still developing 3yos inherently provide value/opportunities throughout the year. The Travers will be no exception.

As for the BC, my buddy has a method that has served him well over the years ----- win bets backed by double place (e.g.$200 win,$400 place). Perhaps a  better play than exactas, tris, etc. because of the big fields and the inevitable spreading too thin.

To each his own.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[albatross]

This will be long so be prepared. Funny you mention Il, NJ racing. I grew up and still live close to MTH, and it\'s painful to watch. I have a lifelong friend on the NJRC which at one time was an honor. Just last night we discussed the similarities of AP and MTH. Both have a 1mm race but that\'s about it. I don\'t know much about Il racing but I think MTH could be doing things but is instead waiting to die or hopefully get some new life in November. While spending 7 years in Fl. working on an AA degree in the 77-84 timeframe,I made it to GP,HIA,CRC, AND TP at CRC quite often, with of course the trots, pups and Jai Alai in the Evenings, the summer racing was the pits. Now that King Frank and Co. Have taken control its a different story. The expanded gambling gives them the money for purses, but they have made the purses generate handle. Last Friday GP and MTH both paid out about 250k but GP did 4.5mm vs. MTH 3.35mm. My friend and I broke down some MTH races and their highest purse 51k generated mutual and verticals of 286k and the following race for 13k generated 480k. A man who shall remain nameless, has been in control of the whole deal through MTHs demise over 30 + years, and is collecting a hefty pension from the state and now continuing to sink the ship with its new private ownership. GP is generating more than MTH with extremely low attendance in stifling heat when CRC couldn\'t do a thing. At MTH, they run the business and set up the card like they did before the lottery and AC. The Oakland A\'s couldn\'t do a thing with their payroll until they started Moneyball. I think MTH needs to do something similar, pluck an engineer out of school, pay him 200k to find out where you get your revenue and card races like that. If you have to give 50k to NJ Breds, put the races in right place. We all live in a competitive world and have to change to keep up, and the fellow in charge just doesn\'t care to make any changes. I feel better now