Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[toppled]

He went backwards from his Saratoga sprint as a 2yo and didn\'t surpass it until the Fla Derby. His pattern is debut-top-x-x-jump up new top.  The xs are paired, 4.25 points slower than his 2nd race. Even though he lost his 1st top and easily won the next 2 (xs), his numbers are his numbers. I\'ve looked at 4 different speed/performance #s and everyone has a 2 race regression off his sprint top in his 2nd race.

[BitPlayer]

I can\'t swear to the accuracy of my hand-entered data, but for horses that have run at least two points worse than their top in their last prep (a sample of 70), I get:

New top: 4.3%
Pair: 12.9%
Off: 32.8%
X: 50%

The three new tops were Liaison (2 pts), Imawildandcrazyguy (1.75), and Ten Cents A Shine (1.5).

Note that I\'m not necessarily looking at bounces (poor effort following a good one), just how their last prep compared with their previous top, whenever earned.  For example, Classic Empire would fall in this group this year, even though his last race was better than the one that preceded it.

[BitPlayer]

I suppose I should add that the group does include two Derby winners: Monarchos and Street Sense.

[TempletonPeck]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I can\'t swear to the accuracy of my hand-entered
> data, but for horses that have run at least two
> points worse than their top in their last prep (a
> sample of 70), I get:
>
> New top: 4.3%
> Pair: 12.9%
> Off: 32.8%
> X: 50%

For reference, the \"all derby starters\" numbers look like this (from 2016 seminar)
Top: 9.5%
Pair: 22.1%
Off: 24.2%
X: 44.2%
(380 runners, from 1995-2015)

(Seminar treated top as more than 1 point better than previous top, pair as within +/- 1 point of top, off as more than 1 point worse up to 4 points worse than previous top, and X as more than 4 points off previous top.)

[sekrah]

My bad, forgot about the MSW, but my mind is on that Allowance race. He was MUCH better than a 9 that day, but never got to show it because he didn\'t have to.  Impossible to save a 1:16.82 split.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Sekrah,
Can you please explain what you mean by fair adjustments?

Many Thanks,
Vincent

[sekrah]

Extremely slow paced races are impossible to rescue because a horse can run as slow a fraction as the race demands but can only come home so fast.  Always Dreaming\'s allowance race is a huge wildcard in this regard.

This same idea is why many missed Arrogate\'s big move forward at Saratoga and decried him as \"impossible\" if you were using TG. Not impossible if you properly moved him forward in his previous race where he broke behind a very slow pace and drew clear. An improved performance that was not detected if you were just basing your handicapping on final times.

AD\'s pattern is far from ideal but it doesn\'t look as bad if you judge the allowance race in context (paired 2yo top and moved forward). I think Pletcher intentionally plotted this easier path for him, knowing all along that he had a monster horse on his hands and he wanted to avoid running two big efforts prior to the Ky Derby, something that has plagued his previous contenders.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Thank you for explaining.
Do you feel as though Pletcher will duplicate this horse\'s form out of Florida?

[sekrah]

Who really knows and it\'s totally reasonable to not like him at a 5-1 price in a 20 horse field. I just disagree with those who hate his pattern and think he\'s an easy toss. The pattern is deceptive and better than it looks at face value. I think it\'s clearly a new tactic being deployed by Pletcher to try to break his Derby funk. I can\'t wait to see the outcome as it could have reaching implications for sheet reading going forward.

[colt]

We all have our tendencies, but AD is a voodoo read as pointed out by Frank D.  If you adjust 4pts+ to give your read some life, where 9-5(adjusted)-neg0.50, this is a sure toss given three are no significant recovery-time either between the last 2 or the upcoming start.  This is standard par-for-the-course read, which is further compounded by TAP Derby record.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Thank you.
Even if AD fails, your analysis \"could have reaching implications for sheet reading going forward\", to use your words.

Do you think Jerry or any life-long sheet players have previously thought of this?

[sekrah]

4 weeks is not an insignificant amount of recoup time, especially for one who just needs to recover from a single big effort.

AD\'s huge FL Derby top made no sense either. A 6.5 top for that horse would have been over a 100-1 shot if you were booking action on it based on black and white sheet reading. Horses that do things that make no sense and break the logical pattern rules tend to be special ones, not one-off flukes.

[Tale Of Ekati]

\"Horses that do things that make no sense and break the logical pattern rules tend to be special ones, not one-off flukes\"

Truth.


Question: wouldn\'t you feel better if you saw AD run this kind of number outside of Florida?

[bobl49]

re AD, there is one more thing that has not been mentioned much. He has had two 1 1/8 preps. There have been a number of recent derby winners who have that same pattern. Should help down the lane.

[jimbo66]

You have got to be kidding.....

HAve sheet readers thought of taking huge liberties, adjusting almost every figure that a horse has run, based on the fact that the trainer knew he had a monster from the beginning and completely manufactured his pattern until the Florida Derby.....

No, sheet readers haven\'t thought of that.

Nor should they.

Jim