Updating 4 point Derby jump up results

[TheBull]

\"There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there\"

For the benefit of the rest of us, can you please name a few examples of 3yos jumping up to a 5.5 pt top the race before the derby and then \"staying there\" on Derby day....particularly horses who had an established top already, before said jump up?

[Furious Pete]

Just by going back to 2010 looking at top 3 finishers:

Ice Box jumped up 4,5 points when winning FL Derby, regressed just a point when getting 2nd in the derby after a really messy trip

Paddy O\'Prado in the same year got 3rd in the derby, jumped big 2nd race out as a 3yo, just kept going forward from there.

Animal Kingdom has been mentioned already.

Nehro in that same year made sudden huge progress and just went forward in every race from there. Hope you didn\'t \"learn\" too much from that huge bounce.

I\'ll have another. Built upon his great 2yo foundation (9 8 19) to win both preps and the KD as a 3 yo, running only good numbers (1 3 1).

Dullahan, got 3rd in the derby, jumped 3,5 points at first and then 3 points more in the next start. Went forward in the Derby, too.

Orb. Jumped 6,5 points. Sheets looks a lot like Always Dreaming up to this point. Then he jumped 3 more points in the Florida Derby to a big negative number, a number he paired up in KD. If AD goes on to win both Derby and Preakness even doubters will have to say their sheets are as identical as one could ever find.

Not top 3 in the Derby, but Pletcher\'s Palace Malice jumped 4,5 points that same year to win the Belmont in good style. Haven\'t seen his sheet as a 4yo but pretty sure that one turned out pretty good.

California Chrome. Had established oneself as a pretty mediocre 2yo (6 starts, only one of those were single digits). Then goes forward 11,5 points to a 6,5 points new top.  And stayed there.

Danza. Went forward 5 points to a 4 points new top. Stayed there and got 3rd in the derby in spite of a terrible trip (Pletcher).

Wicked Strong that same year got 4th in the derby, jumped 8 points to win the wood running a neg 1. Ran a 1 in the Derby with a difficult trip. Even paired that 1 in the Belmont.

2015 was a great year for sheet theorists. Too bad \"none\" of you cashed by getting greedy

2016 was another good year for sheet theorists. Didn\'t look like you cashed this year either.

BTW: not saying you couldn\'t have liked any of those mentioned, just pointing out the big new tops leading up to their triple crown races.

[FrankD.]

Pete,

Glaring differences between Orb\'s and AD\'s sheets.

First off Orb had 4 2 yr old races and got quite an education with severe gate issue\'s in his first 3 starts. He came off that 6.5 point new top not bouncing, he followed it with a 3 point top. He was a clumsy colt with a ton of ability and he was trained by a horseman not a businessman or a pharmacist !!!

This was a healthy 3 yr old, highly touted as having a ton of ability that was a late developer. Off the top of my head after that 1 in the FOY yours truly, Jimbo and Jim C. among others all but declared a Derby winner. Look in the archives the posts are there. He also dropped almost 3 points in the wagering as the gates opened in the biggest win pool of the year.

A healthy developing 3 yr old coming into the Derby off 7 races and had faced a lot of adversity vs a babied horse who broke his maiden at Tampa in February.

The biggest positive I can give AD is he was not trained by TAP as a 2yr old so this one may last to Travers week before he is retired.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Furious Pete]

Frank,

but now you\'re handicapping!! I had almost started to believe one weren\'t allowed to go by anything other than the numbers..

I\'m fully aware that Jimbo had Orb that year, and I did look it up in the archives a couple of weeks ago to confirm it. I think he also said he were on to I\'ll have another. It just seems to me that one can\'t have those if one doesn\'t allow one self to handicap.

I\'m just saying that if one compared the sheet, and AD were to run two neg numbers in a row, you can\'t expect to find many sheets on this level that will resemble each other that much (that is in the numbers).

It strikes me as a tad autistic to rely so heavy on stats and patterns and figures when those numbers obviously don\'t tell you dookie about todays situation. (No offense, but Toppled\'s analysis fits this bill).

[Furious Pete]

Btw, I also found in the archives something along the lines that suggested Jimbo would toss Orb for FL Derby even though he liked him for KD.

Edit - This is what I found in the archives from Jimbo regarding Orb: \"Very bad news for you. Maybe the worst. I am in complete agreement with about every post you wrote on this thread, I could have written them. From the Fairgrounds race to Orb, to thinking that I won\'t bet him in the Fla. Derby and then will like him in the Kentucky Derby, at hopefully a better price\".

[FrankD.]

Pete,

Handicapping is allowed as well!!!

Pop into a Spa seminar some weekend and see Jerry & Alan get questioned about a read, pattern or how a figure was earned or how the same numbers can be read entirely different by another. The daily debate in the back yard goes on and on for 40 days and 40 nights.

You\'re taking the brunt of your AD case not only for a big top in the last Derby prep, a stat that is tough to argue with.The defense of TAP Florida numbers going into the Derby has resulted in some lengthy sentences!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[sekrah]

That\'s not what I said in the post you quoted. You significantly narrowed the sample size down by limiting the patterns to a single race. A single race that produces chaotic results because of the unique distance and the amount of horses running. The same reason it\'s rarely been done is the same reason very few tops are run in the Derby. Owners forcing their charges in to that starting gate when they may not be ready to run is another reason for the unpredictability.

The only thing Derby pattern statistics really tell us is how chaotic the race is.

[Furious Pete]

I\'m not sure I would dare if AD wins KD!!

But jokes aside, and as I have stated many times already, I do have a lot of respect for both sheet theory and the regular posters on here. I just think one have to see every figure in context, and that everyone should be humble enough to know that this is not an exact science. Sekrah does not deserve all that heat for trying to get that point across with his unconventional approach to sheet reading, and to be fair he was the one to tout Arrogates huge run at Saratoga in the summer, just by applying this kind of reading.

Of course it would have been even better to get a confident text message from the trainer himself, as TGJB got. How\'s your relationship with Todd, Jerry, would you expect any favors?

One should also be humble enough to appreciate that Todd Pletcher actually is a pretty good horse trainer, all though he might be an even better business man. But do you guys really think that he couldn\'t train a star to win the derby, if he got his hands on one? Do one really think that AD fits the bill of a horse they\'ve been desperate for points for just to get in on the party? Maybe 2/3rds of his 45 horses fits that bill, and he might even have fooled many of you multiple times in the process with good-looking sheets which undoubtedly have created some severe trust issues. Not to mention the statistics.

Anyway you look at it a \"9 points forward move and 5 points new top\" is not the way to read AD. Then it would be better, as Mjellish said, to just say \"To hell with sheets theory and poorly fundamented derby statistics, this year they won\'t do me no good, I want to bet AD because I think he is a beast\". Occam\'s razor.

That leads me onto another thing I\'ve been thinking about, and that you also mentioned briefly in your post about Orb. How does one interpret big money on AD if they show up? It seems like relatively speaking noone really likes him or could like him. So who\'s betting him down? The same guys that crushed him before the FL Derby? Connections that know they\'re sitting on a monster? Maybe the business man Todd Pletcher decided that he will recoup his \"losses\" from winning more graded preps in the pools this year?

This kind of thinking leads me into thinking that I will bet AD whatever the odds, just a boring medium-sized win bet and leave it with that, because there\'s nothing else I like. If he\'s 5-1 someone knows. And if he\'s 10-1, the value is just too good to resist. Sure I\'ll have to add a small straight exacta with Thunder Snow underneath though. Just to rub in the salt. Well, one could always dream.

[FrankD.]

Cheers,

If you did journey to the back yard? Worry not Jimbo is just as obnoxious live as he is here.....

[Furious Pete]

Oh yes you can\'t fake that! I\'m sure he also is a big hugger though.

[ajkreider]

Maybe this is a seminar question.

What weight are we to assign sprint figs relative to two turn numbers?  There\'s been some discussion pointing to AD\'s 2-year old numbers in 5.5 and 6f sprints -  and what this is supposed to reflect about his current form. Not worried about AD in particular, but the general issue.

A horse that runs :12s all day will get very mediocre 6f figures, and great 9f figures.  That wouldn\'t seem to suggest any \"development\" at all.  Neither would it suggest a big jump up in effort.

[Wrongly]

Some have brought up Animal Kingdom, Orb, Ice Box even Paddy O\'Prado.  Please keep in mind those were wet tracks!

[TheBull]

Im talking about horses coming off a huge new top the race before the derby, which is what AD is dealing with. The majority of those examples are not similar. How does I\'ll Have Another\'s 3yo line of 1,3,1 look anything like Always Dreaming? If the two were comparable, I doubt this thread would be so long.

[TGJB]

Sekrah, that one is clearly not true. We have a large sample size to deal with. If you want to say the Derby produces DIFFERENT results you are probably right, and there are lots of reasons it could, like field size, and having to qualify. But the data, at least on the question of horses coming off big tops, does not indicate chaos.

[TheBull]

Yeah thats the whole point.....I want to know how horses perform off huge new tops (at least 4-4.5) in the Kentucky Derby....going a mile a quarter in a 20 horse field. I dont care how a horse who jumped to a new top in January at Santa Anita did in March in another short field at his home track. at a common distance, with the same testing etc. Those are two totally different sample sets we are looking at.