McCraken

[bellsbendboy]

Bull,  In the Jockey Club Mcraken settled nicely, was three wide, four wide around the bends, passed horses into the far turn with ease, straightened, tapped twice left handed and walked away in hand.

His works are outstanding, his out times even better.  

Feel strongly he needed the Bluegrass after missing a work and being off almost two months.  Push button colt seems strictly the one to beat to me.  bbb

[FrankD.]

Don\'t forget tour de force

[mjellish]

IMO its pretty tough to call him the one to beat when he hasn\'t even run fast enough yet to win.  But there are things to like about him for sure.  

Last year I bet Brody\'s Cause thinking along those same lines.  Although he hadn\'t run fast enough to win he was sitting on an explosive pattern and I liked how he ran on the track.  I also didn\'t like any of the favorites and saw major flaws in all of them.  I got 29-1 on Brody, which helped to mitigate some the risk I was taking by betting on a horse who hand\'t even run fast enough yet to win the race.  So given your statement that you feel McCraken is the horse the beat, What kind of odds do you feel you need to get on him to justify taking that same stance and risk knowing he will probably need to run substantial new top to win?

[TheBull]

We will agree to disagree on that race, although I will say the last 50yds he had the field measured going away while not being ridden that aggressively. Either way that is just a 2yo race and I dont think you will be betting him because of how hard/not hard he was ridden in a 2yo race nor will I NOT be betting on him because of the same. We are more sophisticated than that.

That said, after seeing his TG sheet, he looks to have a better chance on them than I initially thought....he is a total toss on those \"other\" numbers. That being said, there are still others faster in here and I think it all comes down to trip for him. A ground loaded fig with a wide trip probably doesn\'t get the biscuits here as he would need to be MUCH the best or hope all the other principal contenders just didn\'t show up.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey MJ,  I\'m not much on boiling down a performance to an integer, and as patterns go I prefer form cycles.  This Ghostzapper colt has done nothing wrong and in my opinion his races, figures, (Bluegrass) aside, probably does not accurately reflect his ability.

A lot of water will flow before he gets in the gate.  Ian will likely postpone tomorrows work a day and may change his schedule some.  Ideally, for me five eights in company, then a solo blowout half Mon or Tues leading up to the race.

Odds wise, as I wrote he should be favored, perhaps six to one?  As far as running a new top, he will run as fast as he needs to.  He\'s a top shelf colt.

bbb

[jimbo66]

The price on McCracken doesn\'t figure to be appetizing enough to bet a \"slowish\" horse. He looks ok on TG and I won\'t rehash the argument I made after the bluegrass about Wilkes being awfully good at pointing to a race and expecting much better in the derby.

But is 10-1 a fair price on a horse needing a trip and maybe a 2 point new top?

Very hard to say.   Looks to Me like a potential multirace use but tough to key as \"the one\".

[touchgold]

Im not sure id call mccracken slow..I mean, yes others have run faster, but I dont recall many if any, putting in back to back efforts....havent seen all the sheets, but off his last efforts, moving forward a point,(trip a factor) hes right there....at 10-1 or higher hes a use...A 1 in most derbys gets you into the tri/super...again, trip aside.

[jimbo66]

Touch

I have seen the sheets for this years derby.  Not sure what other years has to do with it.

And McCracken is \"slowish\".    There are a handful faster and several will be longer prices.  

10-1 needing to go forward 2 points with a trip.  

Of course, the other point of view is that he will just go as fast as he needs to.  Just step on the gas a little harder.  Makes sense.   At least on this board at this time of year.

[touchgold]

well, what im saying is, looking back at archives, running a 1, is usually good enough for tris/supers...however, with wide trips a 1 sometimes doesnt get in...of those faster horses, how many have run bad races also? Irish war cry comes to mind Or like AD, look to react..IRAP comes to mind...again, havent seen all the sheets, but did notice practical joke looks solid

[jimbo66]

Just to further add to the value question

Irish war cry is about 8 lengths faster, with both at their top.  And figures 2 points lower in odds or thereabouts.  8-1 vs 10-1

[johnnym]

McCraken pattern is one I happen to like.
1st race then a big move forward then paired.
Moved forward again and paired.
Considering Ghostzappers move forward an average of 4 points from 2-3 and this is a April colt.
I have also watched his training videos Hernandez has him glued to the rail very Borel like.
At 10-1 he is very usable to me and would not be surprised he if he crossed the finished line first.
Lets not forget he is 3-3 at the Downs.
Know I will take my flogging like a man

[jbelfior]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Touch
>
> I have seen the sheets for this years derby.  Not
> sure what other years has to do with it.
>
> And McCracken is \"slowish\".    There are a handful
> faster and several will be longer prices.  
>
> 10-1 needing to go forward 2 points with a trip.
>
>
> Of course, the other point of view is that he will
> just go as fast as he needs to.  Just step on the
> gas a little harder.  Makes sense.   At least on
> this board at this time of year.



Jimbo: it\'s pretty much what happened with last year\'s Derby winner.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TempletonPeck]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of course, the other point of view is that he will
> just go as fast as he needs to.

This \"fast as he needs to!\" reminds me of a funny story that most probably have never heard, so in an effort to alleviate the mood, here we go:

Many moons ago JB Holmes, from small-town Kentucky, is playing a practice round as a sort of tryout/audition with the UK golf coach. Coach isn\'t impressed with JB\'s unorthodox mechanics, and is kinda grumbling his discontent. At a par 5, JB blasts one down the middle, leaving himself about 260 in. JB hits a 5-iron onto the green. The following exchange ensues:

Coach: what\'d you hit?
JB: 5.
Coach: 5-Iron? How far can you hit a 5-iron, JB?
JB: Far as I want to.

Now I wasn\'t there, so I didn\'t hear it, but I got the story from a PGA caddie, so it could be at least close to the truth ;-)

[hotspringskid]

I don\'t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you:)

[Tavasco]

I like the story. Thanks.

When the subject of value came up I wanted to tell the story of Abe, Sol & the elephant but its just too long.

Instead, for the many music & music video fans I\'ll just point out that Kirsten Dunst has oddly covered \"Turning Japanese\" on You Tube! Of course she also did Fargo last season so she\'s more versatile than I would have first guessed.

Wha???

And Two more weeks?