richiebee Wrote:
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> I like Gormley. I\'ve admitted his T-graph is a bit
> homely. I\'ve got to embrace the
> intangibles.
>
> We are getting close to the post position draw,
> entries being taken for the Derby
> undercard, some long term weather forecasting by
> Frank D and of course the release
> of the seminar; I\'m expecting that attempts at
> humor and discussion of intangibles
> will be significantly reduced.
Been studying Gormley\'s sheet. If you look at it from the perspective that they got the flash they needed 2yo year to see the horse was something (running a \'4\' routing prior to the Breeders Cup Juvenile is enough to know you have something) and that they do not want to peak too early and have the horse peak in the Derby, then the sheet doesnt look so bad if you focus on pattern. Other winners who fit that pattern are Sea Hero and maybe Ferdinand. Trained by Mack Miller and Charlie Whittingham....you could imagine both of those guys not focusing on the preps and keeping the eye on the prize. Is Shirrefs cut from the same cloth as Miller and Whittingham?
the 1 in the mud with the front and back caulks is a weird figure and I do not know what to make of it. I am inclined to make it inert to the read. If you look at the sheet that way, you have a horse that ran a 4 top in his two year old year, and has had two prep races where he basically came back to that top....you could see the progression coming third race (i.e. now). If you go only off of 2yo numbers, this horse looks strong.....if you were told he was having two preps only and both paired up his 2yo top, you would be looking at the horse to make an explosive forward move.
Realize there is some poetic justice taken in this read, but i find that if you get too pinned into particular figures you can miss the forest through the trees. Still do not know who i like in this derby....there are a huge number of horses who can run figs that can get them close to the win.....we could see the most exciting final furlong ever.
