Belmont Blathering -- Somewhere between Trivia and Science

[Furious Pete]

Thankfully it\'s a problem with an \"easy fix\".

If you like Tapwrit, just protect your bet with an exacta using IWC on top.

And if you like IWC, Tapwrit should be one of the better options to key with underneath.

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Yes Sekrah,
>
> Distance not a factor.  Just like bias not a
> factor.
>
> Completely irrelevant.


\"Distance not a factor\" is not what I said.  As usual you are putting words into my mouth after you said something that was foolish.  

You said \"I don\'t care much about patterns going 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont\".  I would not recommend to prospective TG users to scrap patterns because of the uniqueness of the distance, unless your goal is to completely steer them off the cliff.

[sekrah]

richiebee Wrote:
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> Furioso:
>
> We will agree to disagree.
>
> To me, Preakness winner Cloud Computing, with 3
> lifetime races going into Baltimore,
> did not have a \"pattern\" of any sort.
>
> I think a pattern requires some sort of repetition
> before it is validated. I won\'t
> even get into how many races you need to see from
> a 2YO before you can say that you
> have identified a pattern.


I think we\'re debating the semantics of the word \"pattern\".  To me, CC\'s read was: Yet to react, 6 weeks rest with one of the fastest figures.  At 12-1, that\'s a strong looking set of numbers in my eyes.

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Lots of love on this board for Tapwrit.  I don\'t know.  A
> few points too slow.  A forward move needed. What
> odds do we get on the early nominee for \"wise guy
> horse\" of the Belmont?  
>
> Jim

Jim:

Think the wise guy horse will turn out to be one of those who skipped first two
Classics.

Tapwrit is from a top trainer (remember, according to him, he is 2/17 in the
Derby, not 2/fiftysomething) who contends that Tapwrit would have been in the
Derby tri were it not for early trouble. Ridden by a top jock. BY America\'s top
stallion.

To me, too obvious to be the wise guy horse, but agree with you that he is
certainly an \"in and outer\", and not one I could back with much confidence.

[richiebee]

sekrah Wrote:
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> I think we\'re debating the semantics of the word
> \"pattern\".  To me, CC\'s read was: Yet to react, 6
> weeks rest with one of the fastest figures.  At
> 12-1, that\'s a strong looking set of numbers in my
> eyes.

To me CC\'s read was: Improved in each of his three races, strongly endorsed by The
Guru Jerry Brown, and lets not forget its a Chad Chad world.

[TGJB]

That made way too much sense.

[sekrah]

When I found I was ending up on the same horses as Jerry about 90% of the time, I stopped buying the seminars.

[TGJB]

What\'s funny about that is the other guy who ends up on the same horse as me is Jimbo.

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Richie B,
>
 
> I assume we all know that the owner is the
> daughter of Amory Haskell, for whom the HAskell is
> named after.  Their target for the Jersey Bred,
> Haskell family owned horse, is the Haskell.
>
> The best way to win the HAskell is likely skip the
> Belmont and run fresh in the Haskell or prep in
> early July in some Monmouth race.  Not to run 1
> 1/2 miles in the Belmont.  I am sure Motion
> thinks/believes this, which is why I am guessing
> they won\'t run in the Belmont.

I can agree with all of this. I do not know if Amory Haskell\'s daughter has \"money
is not important\" type wealth, but a Wood/Belmont/Haskell winner is much
more valuable at stud than a Wood/Haskell winner, no?

Your comment reminded me of an old horseplaying buddy, long deceased, who used to
love to play against runners coming out of 12 furlong races when they cut back to
9 or 8-1/2 furlongs.

[richiebee]

sekrah Wrote:
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> When I found I was ending up on the same horses as
> Jerry about 90% of the time, I stopped buying the
> seminars.


I stopped buying the seminars when my wife cut my allowance.

[Furious Pete]

Richie:

Fair to disagree. To me it\'s two different kind of patterns. The one you mentioned that TGAB is the expert on is the \"repeat pattern\", where you\'re looking at the history for a repeat of something that has occured earlier (the history we\'re talking about here is the history of one particular horse - i.e \"local\"). The explosive patterns are the patterns that \"makes history\", where you in effect (might be intuitively) draw data from a lot of horses to make predictions (i.e \"global\").

Sekrah might be right that this is a question of semantics.

If you have found out what\'s working for you and what\'s not I see no reason to change that. After all, isn\'t that whats getting old is all about?

(Sorry Frank. Didn\'t mean to get cute).


Sekrah: Re PJ; Certainly a possibility.

[Edgorman]

TGJB Wrote:
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> That made way too much sense.


Your personal bias aside, what he said is true. Betting horses that have not bounced is a profitable angle.

[TGJB]

I don\'t know what that was about, but mine was about betting a horse to win and protecting under a horse that might or might not fire, and I was serious. I do that all the time, and we do it in the Analysis. I played the Preakness that way, big win bet on CC and exactas under 3 horses to protect.

[Edgorman]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I don\'t know what that was about, but mine was
> about betting a horse to win and protecting under
> a horse that might or might not fire, and I was
> serious. I do that all the time, and we do it in
> the Analysis. I played the Preakness that way, big
> win bet on CC and exactas under 3 horses to
> protect.


Just pointing out the power of betting horses that have not gone back yet.

[bellsbendboy]

SEK, Knowing when a pattern (form cycle would be better) begins, is the edge an integer player perceives they possess. Many, if not most, often make mistakes in judging the beginning of the cycle.

Take the sophomore state bred stakes Memorial day in Arcadia. A strong assertion would be that the winner had a form cycle of exactly one race.  bbb