Bullards Alley at Woodbine?!

[SoCalMan2]

sekrah Wrote:
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> A race with an unusually slow pace will
> overwhelmingly favor the horse with the fastest
> top speed.


pardon my ignorance, but when you say fastest top speed -- are you referring to as measured by final time performance figure or are you referring to fastest fractions like may be reflected in the race shapes product or other form of intermediate time pace figure?  Put another way -- top speed can be either over the whole distance or highest attained rate of speed in the course of the race.

[sekrah]

Top rate of speed. If two animals have barely used any energy in the first half of a race, the one who possesses the top rate of speed holds a decisive edge.

I\'ll take a Sprint champion over a BC Classic winner at 1 1/4 if the first 6f is a crawl.

[SoCalMan2]

sekrah Wrote:
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> Top rate of speed. If two animals have barely used
> any energy in the first half of a race, the one
> who possesses the top rate of speed holds a
> decisive edge.
>
> I\'ll take a Sprint champion over a BC Classic
> winner at 1 1/4 if the first 6f is a crawl.


This is actually very interesting....I take it to mean that if you are expecting the race to be slow pace.....you should put much more weight into the race shapes than into the final figures.  Only issue is if horses have closing speed that can rival opening fraction speed, you need to make sure to take that into consideration. I like this -- never considered it before, but it is a good new way to look at those races.  Thanks

[Furious Pete]

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[sekrah]

JMO and I\'ve said this before... TG speed figs are the best speed figs on the market, but one is not maximizing their potential if they don\'t know 1) The race shapes that these figures were run in and 2) Today\'s likely race shape.  The speed figs are the best, but the 1/4 mile time \"Race Shapes\" that come with TG are not as useful as some of the other products that are out there in the market.

[Bet Twice]

Pete - can you clarify this a bit?  I understand the ground loaded school of thought but what are you saying relative to those on the inside?  Your view is that they can be understated (the horses performance was better than the number indicates) or the opposite?

[Furious Pete]

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