Road to the Derby

[BitPlayer]

Nice zag!

[Silver Charm]

Yes!! Man in fire. Great Pick

[johnnym]

Thanks gents

Next week we have three preps.

[johnnym]

G3 Withers going 1 1/8

Contenders

#2) Very solid pattern with the fastest #2.
Going two turns for the first time trainer 11% first route and 8% graded stakes.

#4) Finished second behind the two last out with a #3.1
Stretching out as well trainer is 13% juicy odds

#5) Won last out at AQU getting #3.3 coming in a point heavy has the right jock for his running style. 33% chance run a new top.

Gonna take a shot with the 4 hoping the odds hold.
4 win
3 horse ex box 2-4-5

Gl

[johnnym]

Going to be a rain out tomorrow

Contenders

#1) Juddmonte Chad Ortiz with a solid moving forward pattern last #6
Chad wins at 23% in Stakes and 41% second route 2 last out.

#3) Fastest back # with a 3.1 then bounced over the sy last out.
Tagg not great in graded stakes giving a point in weight
3/5

#4) winner last out over the gulf track with a big jump up first dirt to a #5.1
Running style helps his chances on the slop


Take the odds with the 4 who won last out.
4 to win
Ex Box 1-4

GL

[johnnym]

Not going crazy into this one.
#2)) I tried to find a horse to step up just don’t see it.

2 win

Baffert EX

GL

[johnnym]

Weather was not as bad as expected last night this AM cloudy but no rain.
Suppose to ramp up again around noon
GL

[Silver Charm]

Decent rain moved thru last evening but ended about 2AM. Expected to be mostly dry today.

I am intrigued by the #1 in here. The word has been out on this one from race 1. He is being brought along slowly. Having been schooled inside and out in all 3 races. Having said that the 4 cut a Gulfstream pace in last. 45:2 and 1:09:4. The 4 hole is inside enough with the short run to speed pop them. But he needs to break better than last like he did in the Allowance win. Which might be why BianCobra gave him a tune up gate work....

[johnnym]

Morning Silver
I think long term the 1 is the legit Derby horse
Chad is smart and won’t have him cranked as he knows the prize is in May

If it’s wet the front end speed is tough
GL

[Silver Charm]

Well we are on the same page here. But we also have to consider with all of them the angle of POINTS!! A win here probably gets just about ANY of these horses in. I dont think any of them are qualified. So there is a point where you need to POP him and manage him from there once you\'ve got your spot......

[johnnym]

Agree
Looking into the crystal ball he is the FOY winner
Back to today
GL

[BitPlayer]

TG has the last Laurel race that Monday Morning Qb and New Commission ran a lot faster than others, so I think you\'ll get your prices on those two horses.  I prefer Monday Morning Qb just because he is more solid at the level and could wind up alone on the lead.  People seem to be projecting a fast pace, but it would not be unusual for jocks to slow things down to make sure they get the distance.

There is the risk that the Maryland shippers won\'t handle the 9f.  If that happens, the closer I like is Max Player.  I know he\'s slow, but just visually his races look like he\'s still a work in progress.  On the other hand, I\'m not sure I want 9-2 on a horse who needs a jump up to win.  We\'ll see if the morning line is right.

[BitPlayer]

I don\'t disagree about Thousand Words, but if they hammer the Baffert exacta, I don\'t think High Velocity stands out that much for 2d.

[Silver Charm]

Maybe. Water gets a lot deeper then too. Dennis Moment pointing for that as his comebacker. Other developing types. And what about the Jerkins horse in the Swale coming there too?

I need to see the replay of the last race for the 4. Comment says drifting steadily. If he was getting out he could be a toss. However he figures to be loose on the lead. Soooooo

[johnnym]

Seems very speed favoring track to me no?