Today's Plays/Races and Summer End

[Saddlecloth]

Pace has alot to do with final time, but its awful hard to quantify what that is, and if you cant quantify it how do you handicap it?  

To illistrate how hard it can be I will use Azeri, often times she was running pace numbers well below what she was truely capable of.  She would come home in decent late pace numbers but when you looked at the final figure it was very average (her 100 beyer in the ladys secret in 02\' being a great example).  She was certainly capable of running faster final times, as she has proven.  In fact her very best overall speed figures are when she runs the half and three quarters the fastest.  Her breeders cup being a prime example.

I believe this happens becuase she could run the final few furlongs just as fast as she did if she ran 46 or 47 for the half.  But the difference in final time is one second slower or faster, thus a big discrepencey in speed figures.  Now of course if she was overextended early it would catch up with her (ie personal ensign last week).

I hope this makes sense, though its hard to express.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo---


I keep saying this over and over. The Thoros work wonders for me on the lawn. Can\'t explain why, but I just have better luck with them on turf than I do on dirt.

I\'ve also compared the Thoros with the Rags and Beyers and I give TGJB a huge edge in the grass # department.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Jbelfior,

I have also had good success with the TG Grass Figs. After looking at TG SHEETS for many moons, my personal conclusion is that the grass numbers are more reliable because ground loss is very important in the outcome of grass race and, IMO, less important on dirt where you catch dead rails that can actually aid wide runners.

Also, I know that grass is \"kinder\" to a horse overall and they may bounce less than dirt runners.

[Delmar Deb]

\"Loose on the lead\" is NOT pace handicapping.  As Tom Brohamer, Jerry and anyone who goes through the process of evaluating each horse in a race based on the \"pace\" factors, it is the ability to withstand the early pace and finish within a stamina context that exceeds the other contenders.

That may be the result of a loose on the lead horse, but many more of my \"pace\" plays (which I presented at Expo 2000 with Tom Brohamer and Brad Free in the audience) have been situations where the horse stalked well within his ability to sustain the early pace of the frontrunners and had the capacity to then finish faster than the others.

The cradle stakes appealed to pace players not because the winner would be on the lead, but because the favorite had come home so slowly in his maiden win that even with improvement leaving the gate, he figured to be slower than at least 2 others in the race - the ones who beat him!

[brokerstip]

 \"different question than the fact that pace plays a role in final times and figures\"

Jimbo,

Aren\'t you splitting hairs a bit?
Here is how I view this question.
First, pace is important in diagnosing any race. We agree.

Second, horses that spend more energy early contesting a very fast pace have less energy for the stretch run. We agree. (as you know, books have been devoted to this type of study)

Third, a horse that chases a tepid pace and tires running up the track probably earns a final figure slower than his peak capability. Not sure you agree with that.


That \'slower\' figure is what you see on the TG\'s. The TG\'s are not hypothetical #\'s. They are as close as one can get to being \'scientific\'

If one feels a fast pace compromised an \"Effort\" and the race was actually better than than the TG \'figure\' represents, you, as a bettor and handicapper, have a big advantage. You can look at previous \"Efforts\" to determine what you feel this horse can run today and ignore the \'off\' race. (TG\'s give you a horses entire career so you see all the numbers)
For some sheet players, a horse with \'back\' numbers or one cycling back to a top effort are very key plays.

I should add that there are lots of reasons horses run sub-par figures. Some of it is age, infirmities, trip, surface, the horses actual weight (something I would like to see) and, unfortunately, drugs (try to quantify that one...lol).
Thus, although I agree pace itself is an important element in any race and that a pace # itself can be determined, I don\'t think you can precisely determine the effect on a \'final\' number. It is subjective imho.
There are many mysteries to this game. (Why do some horse thrive on soft turf and others firm? Why can\'t some horses handle the Churchill slop? etc etc.) Your question, as I percieve it, is just that.
Pace effect is something you develop a \'feel\' for with experience.
Regards,

Bob

>\"Loose on the lead\" is NOT pace handicapping. <

No, but it is a situation where horses tend to earn higher speed figures than if they were under pressure.

[Delmar Deb]

Are you talking about speed figures or pace figures?  You cannot mix the two as they are very different, and pace handicapping - which is what I responded to in your post - ALWAYS uses the early pace figure and the final figure to determine the outcome.

A higher speed figure does not equate to a higher pace figure - as the pace figure has two parts to it - final par and early pace.

I think you are merely talking about a lone F situation vs. a contested speed duel.  Obviously, in pace handicapping, if you can find either a lone F advantage, or a horse who can withstand and/or layoff the expected contested pace and still finish in par or above par time - you have a play.  But those are part of the mathematical calculations you have to do...and determine which races are most representative and which figures a horse will run back to.

So, my friend, when you refer to pace handicapping, please remember that it is a lot more involved than just the question of lone or contested speed.