Who's afraid of Ghosts?

[derby1592]

Anybody with a horse entered in the Woodward Stakes on Saturday...

That horse is spooky fast...

Chris

[twoshoes]

Spooky fast with some problems... probably a positive sign Frankel comes back for this on relatively short rest but I\'ll take a token stand against. Prices elsewhere will clearly be juicy.

[Silver Charm]

>probably a positive sign Frankel comes back for this on relatively short rest

Probably is and it worked last week with Midas Eyes. However, it doesn\'t always work and there is some history as to why Frankel is doing this.

He ran Aptitude in the Jockey Club a few years back, he freaked (Beyer 123) and the horse was tuckered out on BC Day. He skipped the fall campaign with MDO recently and the horse was a little short on BD Day in both years.

So now he is trying to find a happy medium. I will tell you tomorrow night how it worked out.

IMO, the problem with betting against him is that even if you assume he regresses off his last (fairly certain), he\'s still good enough to win unless Midway Road fires his Pimlico Special race (I\'m throwing out his mud effort also). Then it\'s close. The others will all either have to improve a bit to win or Ghost will have to run a dud.

I think Ghost is a deserving heavy favorite even if he gets overbet a bit. I\'m just watching this one.



Post Edited (09-10-04 15:24)

[twoshoes]

Unless he comes unglued - not probable, but possible and I specified \'token.\' Certainly not a place to get nuts.

[Saddlecloth]

listen to frankels comments, pretty funny, Frankel should post on the message board, he would fit right in,

\"Frankel said other handicapping figures he uses didn\'t have Ghostzapper\'s Iselin any faster than the Tom Fool or last September\'s Vosburgh. \"As fast as he\'s run, this is not a top for him,\" Frankel said. \"He did that number twice before. It was the same for Midas Eyes.\"

Frankel was referring to Midas Eyes winning the Grade 1 Forego 10 days after running one of his best speed figures 10 days earlier in an allowance race.

Though Frankel said he doesn\'t fear a regression in the Woodward, he elected to run Ghostzapper here rather than the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Oct. 2 so the horse would have more time before the Classic on Oct. 30.\"

[xichibanx]

twoshoes,

I disagree with you on that \"token\" part this may be a race to make a score.

Ghostzapper looks extremely vunerable at a likely 3/5.  As he isn\'t catching a sloppy tack and a four horse field going 1 1/8.  I feel his dam side sprint favoring breeding will catch up to him here.

I think the play is Saint Liam.  Dutrow and Prado are 30% when teaming up at the Belmont Fall Meet.  Has run well since the switch to Dutrow and will be around 5/1.  I feel with Dutrow his stats outweigh the figs.  But that\'s just my opinion.

I\'ll box with Bowman\'s Band and send it in Win and Place and possibly show if anybody bridgejumps on Ghostzapper..

Best of luck to everyone tommarow.

xichibanx
Who isn\'t afraid of Ghosts...

[twoshoes]

>he isn\'t catching a sloppy tack and a four horse field going 1 1/8<

I don\'t feel that strongly about it but I admire your conviction and - you\'re only going to make a score by playing for one so best of luck. Bowman\'s Band can definitely be used - has run fast enough in the past and I had him moving way too early on a dead rail in his last. The makeup of this field could have them throwing up a pretty wicked 3/4 - someone could catch them late. Newfoundland is also interesting.

[jbelfior]

Great race to watch, have a brew, smoke a cigar. Not worth kicking yourself afterwards if GZ jogs again.

Besides, it\'s too wide open after him.


X-Bank: I would give Dutrow a big shot in here if race were at Philly or Delaware Park.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

>Bowman\'s Band can definitely be used - has run fast enough in the past and I had him moving way too early on a dead rail in his last.<

I\'ve been wondering about that rail myself. I am not 100% convinced it was dead, but I\'m not convinced it wasn\'t either.

Either way, I think Bowman will like 9F better than 10F. I am viewing him off his better races. I am less convinced about his desire to win though. If Ghost and/or Midway fire their best shot, I think they will beat him.

Saint Liam is interesting off his best races, but I don\'t like 5 month layoffs into Grade I races.

If Ghost fires what I think is his normal current race (which I believe is a high probability) he will win given a reasonable trip.

IF he doesn\'t, Midway Road will win if he fires his Pimlico Special.

After that it starts getting freaky. :-)

[twoshoes]

>I\'ve been wondering about that rail myself. I am not 100% convinced it was dead, but I\'m not convinced it wasn\'t either.<

Will reply in more detail later on but IMO it wasn\'t the place to be that day.

twoshoes,

I\'ll recheck the charts later this evening also.

[Catalin]

IMHO, its foolhardy betting against horses that have more than a 40% chance to win.  Saved a lot of money when I stopped doing it.  Now if you believe his chances are less than that...

[Silver Charm]

Where are you going to bet anyway

Half of South Florida still isn\'t open yet.

[xichibanx]

SC,

Calder\'s been open since Monday..

The only worry about that place tommarow is Dolphins traffic.

xichibanx